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There have been many attempts to get inside the mind of Andy Burnham in recent weeks, and it has ramped up in recent days with the knowledge that he will almost certainly become Britain’s next Prime Minister in July.
But aside from Burnham’s own words, one report perhaps offers the best glimpse we have yet of what a Burnhamite – to coin a word – policy agenda might look like.
The report from the Burnham-aligned ‘Mainstream’ group, which works closely with centre-left groups like Compass and Open Labour, looks at ‘Manchesterism’, i.e. Burnham’s approach to governing in Manchester. It sets out a vision on a range of issues for radical economic and political change.
Co-authored by Mathew Lawrence and Alex Williams of the Common Wealth think tank, ‘The Productive State’ was drafted independently of Burnham. But it is likely to be front of mind for the new Makerfield MP, given how close Mainstream are to the outgoing Greater Manchester mayor’s team.
The report could be read as a policy menu for the first months of a Burnham premiership.
So how would it be different to what Keir Starmer has been doing?
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Cost of Living and Tax Reform
That plan starts with an immediate cost-of-living package – fully tax-funded with no new borrowing to keep bond markets calm (there were jitters last year when Burnham said the UK should not be “in hock” to lenders).
The call draws on Centre for the Analysis of Tax analysis, which suggests a comprehensive reform of capital gains tax – currently branded “complex, inefficient and unfair” – could raise an additional £14bn in annual revenues, whilst simultaneously taking over 100,000 people out of CGT altogether. In other words, this form of wealth tax (levied when investments and assets are sold) would vanish for those on the bottom end, and be hiked for those at the top.
The authors say the cost of living package would include “stripping the remaining levies off household and business energy bills with cheaper pricing on an essential block of consumption.” That ‘essential block’ (or ‘lifeline tariff’) idea comes from the left-wing New Economics Foundation, and is potentially a cheaper alternative to a universal subsidy for all home-energy use as backed by the Green Party.
A Burnham Government might then introduce an “emergency brake on rents” so they can’t outpace earnings.
And it backs a lower national bus fare cap (it’s currently £3 in England) with even lower fares for under-25s. A close Burnham ally recently suggested to Byline Times that Burnham may even offer free bus fares for under-25s.
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Public Ownership and Energy
After the cost of living package, public ownership. The near-collapse of Thames Water is flagged as the obvious starting point here. It could be taken into public control (if not technically government hands) through the ‘special administration’ regime and restructured, without upfront pressure on the public finances.
Labour’s year-old GB Energy would be powered-up further to become more of an owner in energy assets, something it has already started through the linked ‘Great British Energy – Nuclear’, which will own the Small Modular Reactors being built by Rolls Royce upon completion.
A “properly empowered GB Energy” is one of the first concrete moves under Mainstream’s energy plan, gradually increasing the role of public ownership in an expensive and complex sector.
As well as being a direct energy producer, GB Energy could also be an energy “dealer” — buying energy when prices are low, releasing supply when they spike, building strategic reserves itself, and stabilising prices from within the market.
Mainstream also wants to see national public corporations for energy and water, regional public housing corporations borrowing at the public cost of capital, and much more building on public land.
The care sector could be overhauled through setting up new municipal and co-operative providers, eventually taking the care sector out of the hands of (increasingly private-equity dominated) private firms.
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Fiscal Rules and Devolution
Then there’s some fiscal jiggery-pokery, which may allow Burnham to stay within his fiscal rules while simultaneously being able to borrow billions more.
How? To simplify, it would involve reassessing how the Government sets out its balance sheet and borrowing.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has already done this to an extent. In 2024, she move