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IMPACT UPDATE: Byline Times investigations have forced the suspension of two Conservative local election candidates after revealing their far-right extremist posts, and our investigation into Reform’s connections to THE COMPANY JCB cited by the Guardian. 05/05/26
The pro-independence leader who polling suggests is on the brink of power in Wales has told Byline Times he believes Labour’s century of “dominance” over the nation is coming to an end.
Left-wing party Plaid Cymru is framing the Welsh Senedd election as the most significant since devolution began in earnest 26 years ago.
A YouGov poll released on 21 April suggested, that Reform UK and Plaid Cymru are effectively neck-and-neck, winning 37 and 36 seats respectively in Wales’ now-expanded Parliament.
Labour’s vote share is projected to fall to 13%, down 23 points on the 2021 election. The party has held the post of first minister since the Senedd’s inception Dropping much lower than that, even under the proportional voting system, could herald electoral wipeout.
Plaid Cymru said that the latest analysis confirms that the election is “a straight fight” between them and Reform UK.
Speaking to this newspaper, leader Rhun ap Iorwerth MS – a former BBC journalist – argues that despite Wales’ proportional voting system, only Plaid Cymru is mathematically positioned to stop Nigel Farage’s party from crowning a first minister.
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Ap Iorwerth makes an explicit tactical voting pitch to the left — saying a vote for Labour, the Greens or any other left-of-centre party “potentially” lets Reform in, sharpening Plaid’s “squeeze” message for votes in the campaign’s final days.
“The opportunity to have a party – again, 100 years old – that has put forward a vision for Wales, that has stood up for Wales all these years, potentially coming into government, changing the dial on the history of Wales politically, that significance is becoming clear to people,” ap Iorwerth said.
While there’s no formal legal threshold for party representation in the new Senedd voting system (as there is in Germany), there is a de facto threshold built in. Because Wales is split into 16 constituencies each electing six members under D’Hondt, a party (or independent) needs roughly 14–16% of the vote within a single constituency to pick up a seat there. So 13% everywhere could see Labour’s representation disappear altogether.
On concerns about Reform UK topping the poll in a nation widely viewed as ‘progressive’ over the border, he added: “It’s important not to somehow think we are immune from that in Wales. If it wasn’t Nigel Farage, it would be somebody else…
“Politics in Wales hasn’t been absent of the right. What has happened is that the Conservatives have now gone over to Reform. Reform is an embodiment of what used to be called the Conservative Party, but further to the right, arguably, and more populist in nature.
“Our job is to persuade people to vote for change, but not to vote for that alternative.”
He added that potentially becoming first minister this month was “daunting,” but that the party is “serious about the job of governing Wales well.”
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Independence and Net Zero
The party’s manifesto has dropped a 2021 pledge to push for an independence referendum in the near term. Asked if the party was downplaying its independence support, ap Iorwerth said: “I am as enthusiastic about Wales taking all those powers as an independent nation as I have ever been, but I am also of the view that it is a political journey we are on as a nation. Everything in this manifesto is about building Wales.”
The party has also moved back a pledge to hit Net Zero from 2035 to 2040. “I’m sad about it,” ap Iorwerth said. “I’m sad that governments, both in Cardiff and in London, haven’t done enough to allow us to confidently say 2035 is still on the cards. 2035 is nine years away. We believe it’s better to have an ambitious target that we can aim towards and persuade people that it is a credible target to work towards. That is simply what has happened there.”
“We would have liked to have seen more happening in recent years; it didn’t. I’m a pragmatist.”
He appeared to downplay the Green Party’s prospects in Wales. The Greens are on the verge of winning their first ever seats in the Senedd – as many as ten according to some predictions.
But the Plaid Cymru leader said: “People are very aware that the first Green MP in Wales was a joint-ticket Plaid Cymru/Green MP, who sat as a Plaid Cymru MP – Cynog Dafis. This is a mantle that Plaid Cymru has carried in Wales.”
“That goes a long way to explain why the Greens aren’t getting the same level of breakthrough in Wales as they are in England. I watch with great interest what the Greens are achieving in England, in the recent by-election and so on.
“The positioning of the pro-environment progressive party that can beat Reform – the only one that can beat Reform – is clearly Plaid Cymru’s position, and most people can see that in this election.”
Greens Could Be ‘Kingmakers’ in Wales as Leader Reveals Power-Sharing Demands
EXCLUSIVE: Welsh Green leader says the party’s support in a potential coalition “doesn’t come free”
Prepared to Govern
A power-sharing arrangement seems likely as no party is likely to win a majority on its own in the Senedd this week.
Ap Iorwerth was upfront about the unlikelihood of winning a majority: “My preference [is] to be in a strong position so that we can lead a minority government. I have no doubt that through careful and mature cooperation with other parties, we can provide stability for government in Wales and ensure that an alliance, if you like, is built around a programme for government that delivers for Wales.
“It is inevitable in that kind of political context that you need an element of cooperation. Coalition, of course, is just one particularly formal form of cooperation. Minority government could work.”
And while Plaid Cymru have avoided the Scottish National Party’s rhetoric of ‘vote SNP to sack Starmer’, he added: “Were Plaid Cymru able to wrestle from Labour the leadership of Welsh Government for the first time, it would add to the already incredibly significant pressure on Keir Starmer’s role as leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister of the UK.”
He brands what is happening in Wales – both the collapse of Labour and the Conservatives – “the rejection of the old guard.”
But there is a real fear among progressives of all stripes that a Reform Government, in Westminster or in the Senedd, could abandon devolution altogether.
“[Reform] may proclaim some limp support for devolution during this campaign, but that is purely because of political expediency. Nobody can trust Reform with the future of our political institutions in Wales,” ap Iorwerth tells this newspaper.
“We have a few days left to build that trust with the people of Wales. We can take nothing for granted. But should it happen, we are prepared. We’re ready to go to govern Wales…and to improve people’s lives.”
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