Trump’s Downfall Will Come Much Quicker Than Anyone Thinks

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I predict that Donald Trump’s fall from grace, when it comes, will be swift and definitive, just like former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s fall after partygate. 

I remember living through Johnson’s premiership in a state of permanent shock and outrage. Shock, that someone so puerile, self-serving, and manifestly unsuited for high office could be elected as Britain’s Prime Minister. Outrage, that so many people around him who should have known better  – Ministers, advisers, fellow MPs, senior civil servants, journalists – were willing to go along with his serial lying, cavalier disregard for the norms of British democracy, dangerous affiliation with Russian contacts, and wilful misrepresentation of the implications of Brexit, despite the massive danger all these things posed for every aspect of the British state, purely for the sake of their own careers and self-interest. 

I have felt the same shock and outrage throughout the first year of Trump’s second term as President. 

It is not so much that I expected him to become a more competent and honourable leader second time round. His vanity, arrogance, bigotry, ignorance, dishonesty, and greed are too deep-seated for him to ever change. 

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Nor did I expect those in his immediate orbit to attempt to curtail his worst instincts, as happened in his first Presidency. It was obvious that he was going to surround himself with sycophants and toadies this time round, to avoid being subject to any kind of restraint on his behaviour or actions. 

I did, nevertheless, cling on to the hope that the other two branches of America’s government – Congress, and the Courts, would continue to do their jobs properly, and insist on their rights and prerogatives being respected.

I did cling on to the hope that at least some in the Republican Party would find just enough spine to raise at least some objections, when he nominated utterly compromised or unfit individuals to critical positions in his cabinet, including Pete Hegseth as Defence Secretary, Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence, Kash Patel as head of the FBI, Pam Bondi as Attorney General, and Robert Kennedy Jr as Health Secretary. 

I did cling on to the hope that more than one or two of them might be willing to speak out when Trump’s actions clearly crossed a constitutional line, or were actively harmful to America’s interests, such as his crazy notion to seize Greenland at the cost of destroying NATO.

I did cling on to the hope that the battered, unpopular Democrat Party, might be able to shake themselves out of the doldrums, and conduct more effective opposition in Congress.  

I did cling on to the hope that even in the compromised Supreme Court, the more serious judges would recognize the dangers of allowing the President to continue to accrue so much executive power without pushback. 

I also, naively as it turns out, assumed that the major organisations most badly affected by Trump’s erratic policy making –  such as businesses damaged by his tariff policy, universities by his clampdowns on free speech, companies dependent on migrant labour, lawfirms and media companies bullied by his lawsuits – would not cave so rapidly to his demands, or remain so cravenly silent.  

Though there have been some honourable cases, particularly within the Department of Justice, of people stepping down from their positions in protest at his administration’s unlawful actions, I had also assumed that there would be far more mass resignations from his government, as his outrageous actions mounted. 

Unfortunately, it turns out that, amongst America’s elites, fear and self-interest are powerful barriers to ethical action.

But, where America’s elites have largely failed, America’s ordinary citizens are beginning to make their opposition to Trump known. And, though it may be wishful thinking, it feels to me that,  with the unjust killing of Alex Pretti in Minnesota last weekend, coming barely two weeks after the equally unjustifiable killing of Renee Good in the same city, the balance of public opinion has shifted decisively against Trump.  

This is not just borne out by opinion polls, which have shown steadily growing hostility to the administration’s actions on both immigration and foreign policy, and declining support for the President personally.

It is evident from the growing expressions of public support for the people of Minneapolis, who have been enduring violent intimidation and harassment by the Customs and Border Police and ICE agents for weeks now. It is increasingly clear that for the vast majority of Americans, even many of those who originally supported the administration’s tough stance on immigration, ICE’s actions have crossed the line. 

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Above all, it is evident from the widespread anger felt by most Americans at the way the administration has tried to cover up the unjustified killings of Good and Pretti, and blame the victims themselves. As with Boris Johnson over Partygate, it’s not so much the original offense which has got so many ordinary Americans worked up, but the gaslighting and attempted cover-up. 

I know Americans. They can be a tough and unsentimental lot. Their instinct is to support law enforcement, and not be overly fussed by the frequently lethal measures used by America’s police forces, which many Europeans find horrific. As reflected in the continuing low support for the Democrat Party, many Americans also remain hostile to left wing, progressive causes, and unsympathetic to agitators. 

But, like most people everywhere, Americans don’t like being lied to. They don’t like being treated like idiots. They don’t like being asked to disbelieve the evidence of their own eyes, as has occurred with the Administration’s wildly dishonest narratives over what happened to Good and Pretti. 

Most Americans also don’t like the idea that ordinary, law abiding citizens, can be gunned down purely for exercising their First Amendment rights to free speech. They really don’t like the idea that this can include a 37-year-old mother, returning from dropping off her kid at school, and a 37-year-old intensive care unit nurse, who looked after America’s hallowed veterans. Americans know this could have been any one of them. 

Americans can be ornery and bloody-minded. But they know when they are being gaslit. They know Good and Pretti were not professional agitators or “domestic terrorists” as the administration has maligned them. They can see neither Good and Pretti presented any threat whatsoever to the ICE agents surrounding them. They can see the video showing Good was trying to drive away when she was shot at close range. They can see the video showing Pretti was thrown to the ground, disarmed, and was defenceless and surrounded by agents when he was shot repeatedly in cold blood.  

Thanks to social media, they can also see the dozens of other videos showing ICE agents beating up protestors, spraying pepper spray in people’s faces, dragging people out of cars, and detaining sobbing children. Many Americans may not like immigrants, but most certainly don’t like this.

When even the National Rifle Association, traditionally a fervent supporter of the President, is speaking up, objecting to the claims that Pretti was a legitimate target because he was carrying a gun, you know the tide is turning. 

Where public opinion leads, perhaps more elite figures will finally follow. 

You can already see the signs. It’s still only small steps, but more and more Republicans in Congress are finally finding their voice. Senators Lisa Murkowski from Alaska and Susan Collins from Maine have always been willing to stand up to Trump. Others are now joining them. Senator Tillis of North Carolina and Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana have joined Collins in publicly calling for an independent probe into the shooting of Pretti. Texas Senator Ted Cruz criticised the administration’s rhetoric on the shooting. 

According to ABC news, over two dozen GOP figures in the House of Representatives and nine in the Senate have also called for hearings into ICE, an investigation into the shooting, or even for the immigration operations in Minnesota to end altogether. 

Particularly strong comments have come from State level figures. The Republican Governor of Vermont issued a statement declaring “Enough …it’s not acceptable for American citizens to be killed by federal agents for exercising their god-given and constitutional rights to protest their government”. The Republican Candidate vying to replace Tim Walz as Governor of Minnesota later this year withdrew from the race, saying he “cannot support the national Republican stated retribution on the citizens of our state nor can I count myself a member of a party that would do so.”

More than one or two right-leaning media outlets and influencers have also started to question ICE’s actions – for example, podcaster Joe Rogan; former Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Green; a handful of commentators on Fox; the op-ed writers in the Wall Street Journal.  These voices cut through. 

Unfortunately, most Republican politicians, are still only willing to make their concerns known to the administration privately, or to keep pretending it is only a problem caused by the President’s “advisers”, rather than the President himself. 

Nevertheless, the mood change is real.  As each individual breaks ranks and speaks out, others are more likely to find the courage to follow suit. With opinion polls moving ever further against Trump, even the most self-serving politicians, who have been willing to stand by for months as the administration has violated constitutional norms, may finally conclude that it is no longer in their best interests to be so closely affiliated with this President. 

Just as the President’s speech at Davos marked a turning point in international perceptions of Trump – confirming him as an unserious bully who backs down when faced with strong, united, opposition, so, the killing of Alex Pretti this past weekend may come to be seen as the turning point for Trump domestically.