Russia’s Murderous Ceasefires and Musk Admiration for Putin

It’s been a strange couple of weeks here in Kyiv — after the absolute madness of March with its Oval Office showdowns and ongoing bromance between the American and Russian presidents, recent days have seemed relatively calm in comparison. 

But that’s not to say it hasn’t been eventful over here, so let’s get right into it.

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The Ceasefire

Let’s get one thing straight first — on March 11, Ukraine agreed to a full, 30-day ceasefire.

Russia refused.

In the nearly one month since, the Kremlin (and the White House) have made a lot of noise about partial ceasefires in the Black Sea and on strikes against energy infrastructure. It’s all just noise. Russia has conceded nothing it can’t afford to concede. 

By agreeing to partial ceasefires in the Black Sea and on energy infrastructure, the Kremlin is trying to give the impression it’s genuinely interested in peace, but in reality, all it’s done is gain a reprieve in the two theaters of war in which it was getting an absolute hammering.

Despite barely having a navy, Ukraine has decimated Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, keeping vital shipping lanes open and scoring hit after hit on Moscow’s ships.

And despite being reliant on the still-fledgling technology of long-range attack drones, Ukraine has scored hit after hit on Russian oil refineries hundreds, and sometimes thousands of miles inside Russia. No wonder the Kremlin has been so willing to make it stop.

But where it actually counts, Russia shows no signs of wanting peace, and instead there are signs it’s actually preparing for more war. President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned of Russian troop build-ups across the border from Ukraine’s Sumy and Kharkiv regions, saying the Kremlin is preparing for new spring offensives. 

Citing G7 diplomatic sources, the Associated Press also reported that ​​Russia is likely preparing to launch a new offensive on multiple fronts in an effort to strengthen its position in possible peace talks.

Meanwhile, Russian missile and drone attacks against Ukrainian cities carry on unabated. In the latest incident, a ballistic missile hit a residential area in the city of Kryvyi Rih.

Russia said it had successfully targeted a meeting of Ukrainian military officials. Video from the scene showed it had successfully targeted a playground. At least 18 people — including nine children — were killed, and more than 60 were injured.

After seemingly being taken for a ride by Vladimir Putin for the last few weeks, over in Washington, there are signs that Trump’s patience is beginning to wear thin as he begins to realize what everyone else has known all along — Russia isn’t interested in peace in the slightest.

Trump has said he is “pissed off” and “very angry” at Putin’s actions in recent days, threatening to “put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia”.

But the perennial question remains — will he actually do anything or is he, once again, all talk when it comes to Russia?

We should find out soon enough — on April 4, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said: “We will know soon enough, in a matter of weeks, not months, whether Russia is serious about peace or not. I hope they are”.

So yes, they’re a bit slow on the uptake in the White House but they seem to be getting there eventually.

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The Occupied Territories

If you read one article about Ukraine this week, I very much encourage you to make it this one about Ukrainians in Russian-occupied territories being forced to take Russian passports or face being deported to… well, no one actually knows where.

With all the talk of ceasefires and “freezing the front lines,” there’s very little coverage of the people who will be affected the most — Ukrainians, living under a Russian reign of terror, and subjected constantly to the threat of imprisonment, torture, and death.

There’s a reason you don’t hear much from them — it’s virtually impossible for them to safely speak to the outside world without risking their lives.

No one even knows exactly how many Ukrainians there are living under Russian occupation, but Ukraine’s president has said it is “at least several million”.

Russia’s latest ultimatum to them means they are being forced to accept Russian citizenship, and the motivation is simple — the more Russian “citizens” living in an occupied area of Ukraine, the easier it is for Putin to justify his control of those illegally annexed areas.

One of the most worrying aspects of all this is that the White House seems to be falling for it. Last month, Trump’s Special Envoy Steve Witkoff gave an interview to Tucker Carlson in which he said that occupied Ukrainian territories “are Russian-speaking, and there have been referendums where the overwhelming majority of the people have indicated that they want to be under Russian rule”.

It is, quite simply, Russian bullshit served up on a plate and devoured unthinkingly by the very people who are leading the efforts to end the war.

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Tariffs

Most of the world’s attention this week was focused on President Donald Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs, and not even war-torn Ukraine was immune.

Although Kyiv got off lighter than most, Ukrainian goods going into the US now face a 10% tariff — far lower than the 20% imposed on the EU, and 54% on China, but certainly not nothing.

Ukraine’s trade with the US is relatively small — last year, there were only $874 million of exports, mostly metals such as pig iron and steel pipes.

Kyiv was actually hit far harder by the 25% tariffs imposed on these exports by Trump last month, so even though they’re not affected by the latest round, it was a considerable blow to the country’s metallurgy sector.

As for the latest tariffs, Kyiv has said the effect will be “difficult, but not critical” for Ukraine’s economy.

Notably, despite almost every country in the world being on Trump’s tariff target list — including an island inhabited solely by penguins — Russia was spared.

A lot of commentators on social media framed this as yet another example of Trump pandering to the Kremlin but the White House insisted it wasn’t on its tariff list as existing sanctions “preclude any meaningful trade”.

Whether or not you believe them, it is worth noting that other heavily-sanctioned countries like Belarus, North Korea, and Cuba were also spared, and there is a Republican plan in the works to impose a 500% tariff on Russian uranium.

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The Apple, the Tree, Etc Etc…

If you’ve ever wondered why Elon Musk is very…. Elon Musk, let me introduce you to his father Errol.

In a recent interview with BBC Russia, Errol swooned over Putin, saying it would be “foolish not to admire (him)… as a man”.

“I listen to his speeches — he says logical things. If you view him simply as a man, not in the context of international politics, it’s hard not to have respect for Mr. Putin”, he said.

Other highlights include Errol insisting that “only in time will it be possible to understand who really started” the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, despite it already being very obvious to anyone with half a brain capable of even the slightest bit of critical thinking.

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And Finally…

Even though it might not look like it from abroad, there are plenty of non-war related dramas gripping the attention of Ukrainians.

One of the most popular is the ongoing saga of a stork called Hrytsko who, on March 22, was believed to have returned to his home nest in the village of Lelyaki, Poltava region, to await the arrival of his girlfriend, Odarka.

This annual mini soap opera has been broadcast live to the world via a webcam, and Hrytsko is a bit of a celebrity over here.

So it was with much joy when the couple were seen in the nest, greeting each other and getting down to what it is that storks do at this time of year.

But in a twist worthy of an episode of EastEnders, it was later discovered that Odarka was not the sweet and faithful stork everyone believed, and everyone had in fact been watching her new boyfriend awaiting her arrival.

The fate of Hrytsko remains unknown.