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Speaking at the NATO conference on 12 February, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ruled out NATO membership, US troop presence, and return to pre-2014 borders for Ukraine.
The same evening, in Kyiv, a US delegation led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to sign a rare minerals deal, with Jack Posobiec, an operative linked to neo-Nazis and Russian neofascist Aleksandr Dugin, present at the meeting, possibly applying psychological pressure on Zelenskyy, whose Jewish ancestors were Holocaust victims.
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Why was Jack Posobiec, who has spread baseless Russian propaganda about the country, accompanying a US Treasury delegation visit to Ukraine?
Zelenskyy refused to sign, requesting security guarantees and a meeting with US President Donald Trump, who happened to be speaking on the phone with the Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin then. Only after this “highly productive” call, Trump called Zelenskyy—as Russia launched missile and drone strikes on Ukraine.
The Kremlin chimed in with a statement, framing “NATO expansion” and Ukraine’s “denazification” as the root cause of the war—false claims, as NATO remains a defensive alliance with an open-door policy, and far-right parties hold little political influence in Ukraine.
That night, the Senate confirmed Tulsi Gabbard, known for echoing Russian propaganda, as Director of National Intelligence.
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Later that week, the US delegation met Zelenskyy at Munich Security Conference but yielded little, while U.S. VP JD Vancemade a speech dismissing Russia and China as threats to the EU and echoing Hitler’s rhetoric about an “internal” enemy.
More clarity soon came as top Russian and US officials met in Riyadh on 18 February, Saudi Arabia. Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, a $10 billion state-run investment fund, signaled Russia’s desire to revive joint oil projects with US firms.
In 2012, Russian state-owned oil giant Rosneft’s subsidiary secured 30% stakes in ExxonMobil projects in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, Canada, and West Texas. Sanctions imposed after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and proxy war in Donbas halted Exxon-Rosneft ventures, crippling Rosneft with debt and cutting access to Western technology. To restart its $500 billion Exxon deal, Russia needs sanctions lifted. The parties agreed to ease “bilateral irritants” and appoint high-level teams for Ukraine negotiations. The Kremlin has not ruled out a Trump-Putin meeting by late February.
Tensions between Trump and Zelenskyy escalated as Trump labeled Zelenskyy a ‘dictator’ after the Ukrainian president disputed Trump’s claim that Ukraine had initiated the war.
The US also raised eyebrows—if not hackles—by opposing the use of the term “Russian aggression” in the G7’s 24 February resolution on the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, even as Russia occupies 20% of Ukraine’s territory and continues to expand its forces, growing the numbers to 140,000 in 2024.
The US proposed a vague resolution that neither condemns Russia nor affirms Ukraine’s territorial integrity, framing the war as a random conflict. Russia might consider voting for the US resolution and suggested adding the clause about addressing “root causes,” in Putin’s words, “NATO expansion” and Ukraine’s “denazification”. The US resolution could gain support from Global South countries, which hold the majority in the UN.
The Reality on the Ground
At a press conference on the eve of third anniversary of the invasion, Zelenskyy offered to stand down as president in return for peace in Ukraine and membership of NATO, and pushed back against Trump’s claim that only 4% of Ukrainians supported him as a Russian “disinformation attack”.
He also rejected the idea that US business interest in any mineral deal would provide a sort of security guarantee, observing that 20 American business had been operating on the areas now occupied by Russia. He also asked if Trump’s demand for 100% mark up on the cost of US weapons also applied to countries such as Israel and Qatar, and noted that the $500 billion bill would incur a burden on the next ten generations of Ukrainians.
The White House’s shapeshifting comes at an auspicious moment for Moscow. Although the 600-mile frontline remained active in February 2025, with both Ukrainian and Russian forces making territorial gains in different sectors, Russian forces showed diminishing territorial gains. The UK Defense Ministry intelligence reported decreasing Russian offensive momentum.
On the northern front, Russia and Ukraine continue to contest territory and launch cross-border strikes in Kharkiv, Cherhihiv, and Sumy Oblasts in Ukraine and Belgorod and Kursk Oblast in Russia. Ukraine conducted a counteroffensive, launching a limited operation in Russia’s Kursk region, which Zelenskyy viewed as a potential basis for a territorial swap—an idea that Russian officials rejected.
At the heart of the conflict since 2014, on the eastern front, Russia seeks full control of partially occupied Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts, annexed in September 2022. Intense urban and trench warfare continued in the region. Russian forces advanced northeast of Siversk, while also gaining ground in the Kurakhove direction. Russian advances in Toretsk and Chasiv Yar threaten a major highway linking logistics hubs Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, potentially complicating Ukrainian supply routes.
Meanwhile,on the southern front, Russia defends territories in partially-occupied and annexed Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts and Ukraine targets supply lines. Russia continues to target major ports in Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts. In western Zaporizhzhia, Russian forces conducted ground attacks but failed to advance. No ground advances were reported in Kherson Oblast over the past weeks but Russian artillery, missile, aerial bomb strikes, and “human safari” drone attacks on Ukrainian-controlled territories and attempts to seize the islands in the Dnipro River continued.
Russia continues daily missile, aerial bomb, and drone strikes on all regions of Ukraine while Ukraine carries out drone attacks into Russian territory, targeting oil and gas facilities, military equipment, and weapon warehouses and plants.
As Russia expands its forces and escalates strikes across Ukraine and Ukraine faces manpower shortages and urgently needs long-range weapons, helicopters, and electronic warfare defenses to confront the invasion, is negotiating sanctions and oil deals with Russia, extorting minerals from Ukraine and flirting with Nazi rhetoric.
One hopes that Washington’s shifting stance evoking the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, is not signaling a new 1938 and beyond.
Additional reporting by Theodore Allthorpe-Mullins