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While all the talk coming from Washington and Moscow is of ceasefires and peace, here in Kyiv it sounds like anything but.
The White House and the Kremlin made a big deal this week about an agreement over a supposed partial truce of strikes against energy infrastructure, framed as a positive step towards ending the war in Ukraine.
In reality, nothing has changed. Russia continues to launch hundreds of kamikaze drones against Ukrainian cities every night, and in Kyiv, the sounds of the air raid sirens followed by the explosions of air defences blasting them out of the sky is now just part of the evening routine.
In the 72 hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to the partial truce, at least thirteen civilians were killed across the country, and 83 others were injured.
Overnight Kyiv was hit by a massive Russian drone attack. What started off as the distant sounds of air defences just after midnight soon turned into the buzzing of kamikaze drones flying overhead and multiple explosions.
So far it’s known that at least three people were killed in the capital — including a five-year-old girl and her father.
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The Politics
Despite this, this last week has felt weirdly calmer than previous weeks as the explosions in the sky haven’t been accompanied by diplomatic explosions in the White House.
After the now infamous Oval Office showdown between Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky, the two leaders appear to be on much better terms after a phone call this week.
In a post on Truth Social notably lacking in BLOCK CAPITALS, Trump said the call was “very good.” “Much of the discussion was based on the call made yesterday with President Putin in order to align both Russia and Ukraine in terms of their requests and needs”, he added.
But this comment contains what is almost certainly to be the biggest upcoming challenge for Trump — aligning Ukraine and Russia.
In order to advance peace talks, Russia is demanding a complete cessation of foreign military aid and intelligence to Ukraine, as well as the cessation of mobilization and rearmament of its military. No one in Ukraine believes this is anything other than an attempt to cripple Ukraine’s armed forces while the Kremlin gathers strength for another concerted mass attack.
“All our experience of dealing with Putin testifies that Putin will never keep his word — he is a pathological liar and provocateur,” one Ukrainian MP told me. The crucial question is — will Trump fall for it?
We may get our answer this week as both Ukrainian and Russian delegations are scheduled to meet US officials for the next round of talks in Saudi Arabia.
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In his regular dispatch from Kyiv, Chris York explains how US actions feel like a complete betrayal in the interests of Putin
The Battlefield
Two weeks ago Ukrainian forces were fending off a concerted counterattack by Russian and North Korean troops.
Unfortunately, the situation has only worsened dramatically and Ukraine has had to retreat from the town of Sudzha. As previously mentioned, the decision by Trump to stop sharing intelligence with Ukraine — since reinstated — appears to have been a major factor in the deteriorating situation.
This doesn’t bode well for Ukraine’s position in any negotiations with Russia over a peace deal — the Russian territory held by Kyiv would be a massive bargaining chip.
On the eastern front, there has been little change in the lines yet Russia continues to throw men into the so-called “meat grinder”.
The toll of this was highlighted once again this week with the number of Russian troops reported killed or wounded surpassing the 900,000 mark.
An ongoing investigation by the BBC and Meduza has so far identified nearly 98,000 of those killed, despite the Kremlin’s efforts to keep a lid on its losses.
Drone Strikes
If there isn’t much movement on the eastern front, the same can’t be said of the drone war.
As mentioned above, Russia continues to pummel Ukrainian cities on a nightly basis but Kyiv has been hitting back in quite spectacular fashion.
Last week Ukraine launched its biggest drone attack of the war with Russia claiming it downed 337 UAVs across the country, with a sizable portion of them reaching Moscow.
As ever, nothing the Kremlin says should be taken at face value so it’s likely some of these drones actually struck their targets and weren’t simply “downed”.
And Ukraine’s ongoing effort to cripple Russia’s oil industry — which it uses to finance its invasion — struck a Russian oil pumping station in Krasnodar Krai earlier this week which has been on fire for days now.
Judging by videos posted to social media, it won’t be back up and pumping anytime soon.
Musk’s DOGE Is Inspired by Pro-Kremlin Monarchists and 1930s Technofascism
Musk’s top DOGE operative is linked to a Russian American network of anti-West pro-Kremlin monarchists inspired by the 1930s counter-democracy “Technocracy” movement, of which Musk’s grandfather was a member
Russian Terrorism
One very disturbing trend to keep an eye on is the apparent rise of Russian security services recruiting Ukrainian teenagers to carry out bombings.
According to the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), the UK’s equivalent of MI5, Russia’s intelligence actually blew up two teenagers recruited to carry out a terrorist attack in the western city of Ivano-Frankivsk on March 11.
After being recruited with the promise of making some quick money, the pair aged 15 and 17 were instructed to head to a designated location with two bombs disguised as thermos flasks.
These were reportedly detonated remotely, something the SBU said is a deliberate tactic designed to allow for both bombings and the eradication of those carrying them out.
Worryingly it wasn’t an isolated incident and reports of similar cases are rising.
The Media
In the latest example of how Trump’s America First strategy is likely to erode democracy around the world, the White House followed through with an executive order to cut funding for the US Agency for Global Media (USAGM), which oversees Voice of America (VOA) and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL).
It follows a tweet from Elon Musk last month which claimed the US-funded outlets were “just radical left crazy people talking to themselves while torching $1B/year of US taxpayer money.”
Unsurprisingly, Musk couldn’t be further from the truth — for decades these outlets have been a pro-democratic bulwark against authoritarian regimes in Russia and Eastern Europe.
If they don’t survive it’s yet another blow to anyone who prefers democracy over authoritarianism.
Unfortunately, those currently in the White House seem to prefer the latter.