‘The Doors are Wide Open for Ukraine to Deliver a Devastating Blow to Russia – if Only the West Would Let Them’

As Russia continues to wage their illegal and unprovoked war against Ukraine, several things have become clear.

The first is that Russia must lose this war, not only because they have no legitimate claim to a single square centimetre of Ukrainian land, not only because of the fates that would befall those who would be left behind, and not only because a negotiated pause in the war would be a precursor to more war later.

Russia must be defeated because as a nation that has been reared on war mongering, only an unmitigated Ukrainian victory will stop the nefarious activities of the current regime by bringing it crashing down, to the benefit of the whole world.

It follows therefore, especially as so many people argue (wrongly, to be clear) that the war has reached a stalemate and that neither side can win, that new tactics enabling Ukraine’s victory are necessary.

This has never been more true than in the wake of the massive day-long Russian bombing of Ukraine on 26 August with over 100 missiles of various kinds and also 100 Shahed drones in a single day.

Though I am out of Ukraine for a short period, reading my social media feed of that day there was a palpable sense of anger coming from people, people personally experiencing this attack in particular, who were rightly stating that there is a way to curtail this deadly arial violence. As if this needed to be said, but, thus saving lives.

Among supporters of Ukraine (read: supporters of democracy, those who stand against the anti-democratic axis that has clearly fallen in line behind Vladimir Putin with North Korea supplying missiles and Iran providing drones and China providing diplomatic cover at a minimum) a hashtag has trended on social media for some time – #LetUkraineStrikeBack. 

Well, a trending hashtag will not defeat Putin’s armies, but an understanding of what that actually means in real and practical terms might shift the positions of certain decision makers who have so far failed to grasp the necessity of allowing Ukraine to strike back. Or, worse, have refused to allow Ukraine to strike back for a variety of reasons unsupported by evidence, such as unfounded fears of “escalation” from the Russian Federation.

For context now, a few recent developments in this war need to be stated.

The first and maybe most consequential of these events is Ukraine’s audacious decision to take the land war into Russia through the occupation of 1,300 Km² of the Kursk Oblast in Russia.

Another is the ongoing campaign to strike at Russian oil refineries, thus hitting the revenues that feed the Russian war machine as well as the supply of fuels their military needs to prosecute this war. These events are of extreme importance because of what we have learned from them:

• The reddest of red lines has been crossed, foreign troops are present inside the territory of Russia for the first time since World War II. Yet, the world has not been reduced to a smouldering nuclear wasteland. 
• Ukrainian drones flying unmolested across Russian airspace have demonstrated that there is very little (if any) air defence capacity in the country.

With the red lines crossed, yet again, we can see that Putin, and his propagandists are bluffing. Every time they state a red line (and there have been many, an attempt to liberate Kherson city from Russian occupation was once one, for example. So were Patriot batteries. So were ATACMS. So were F-16s. And so on and so on) once it has been blown past, the Russian response has been indicative of the state of the Russian military.

Basically, they have nothing left in the tank. They cannot “escalate” because they lack the means to do so. The war continues, with the accompanying death and destruction, as it had before.

With Ukrainian drones showing that Russia cannot adequately defend Russian airspace (likely due to an arrogant assumption that they would never need to, who would dare to attack “mighty” Russia?) we see that the doors have been left wide open for what would prove to be a major turning point in the war: the destruction of air bases and other military facilities inside Russia from which these attacks against civilians and the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine originate.

The question that follows therefore is, what is the most efficient way to accomplish that task? The answer lies in the very justifiable use of western-supplied weapons against those targets.

Having been faced with limitations (all of which were previously justified by the “red lines” and “escalation management” that are now demonstrably false concepts) in the provision and use of weapons by western allies at various points throughout the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has been busy with domestic innovation, and this is right.

But why, when there are warehouses full of tried and tested weapons that would be suited to this job, reinvent the wheel? The immediate provision of these weapons, or lifting of restrictions on the use of said weapons, would have an immediate effect. Why wait? Lives can be saved. Future reconstructions costs (already estimated at over half a billion dollars) can be reduced.

The anger felt by many in Ukraine about preventable attacks not being prevented is fully understandable. It is not a lack of gratitude for the military assistance provided to date, far from it, Ukrainians are extremely grateful, and at the same time their anger is justifiable.

To highlight the absurdity of the current restrictions on the use of western weapons, the Institute For The Study Of War has just produced a list of 245 military and paramilitary objects that could be hit with weapons that Ukraine already has (caveat, with sufficient ammunition also being made available, from stockpiles) the question on the mind of many Ukrainians is simply, why not take out those 245 objects yesterday? Why wait? Lives can be saved.

The path to a just end to this war necessarily travels through the termination of Russia’s ability to wage it. Nothing else will stop them, for Putin is now too far invested in his folly to unilaterally reverse course, despite the unprecedented loss of men and materiel that Ukraine has inflicted on the enemy.

The destruction of 245 facilities, in short order, would be a devastating blow to the Russian military. Ukraine has the capabilities, just not the permission, to do this right now. Why wait? Lives can be saved.

A recent New York Times headline states, ‘Putin is getting rattled‘, why not rattle him more? Now is the time. The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk (in and of itself deeply embarrassing for Putin, which we know because he can hardly bring himself to mention it) will stretch the already stretched resources the Russian president has available, as in order to retake this land troops (in very short supply) will have to be pulled from other areas, leaving opportunities for Ukrainians to exploit in occupied parts of their country.

The use of western weapons systems on those targets within range in Russia might not bring about an immediate end to the war, but it will reduce Russia’s ability to kill. That, at the end of the day, is all that Ukrainians are asking for. Why deny them that?

To add, and to emphasise the urgency of allowing Ukraine to strike back, Russia intends, demonstrably through their actions, to leave Ukraine deprived of electricity and heating this winter. It is mere months away.