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Despite all the talk of peace, Russia‘s full-scale invasion of Ukraine continues. In what now appears to be a regular feature of these bi-weekly updates, the time in between has yet again been marked by another mass missile and drone attack on Kyiv.
Two people were killed, and eight others injured, including four children, overnight on May 7 — just before another sham Russian “ceasefire” came into effect to protect Vladimir Putin from the humiliation of having to cancel his Victory Day parade in Moscow two days later.
Yet the peace process stumbles on, and this week all eyes were on Istanbul.
The ‘Peace’ Talks
The lead up looked promising — Ukraine, Europe, and the United States were demanding, with one voice, that Russia agree to a full, 30-day ceasefire.
Granted, Putin had already rebuffed them, and instead proposed direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul, but the messaging from the West seemed to be united and in step.
And then Donald Trump blew it. Again.
Volodymyr Zelensky had already called Putin’s bluff, responding immediately to the Russian president’s proposed talks by saying he’d be there and expected to see Putin there as well.
The Kremlin, caught off guard, responded with silence as they formulated a plan to get out of the situation they’d largely created.
Putin was never going to show up on the same stage as Zelensky — in his eyes, this would legitimise a Ukrainian president that he has always insisted is illegitimate.
So in his place, he sent a low-level delegation with no authority to make any decisions — just the latest in a series of moves that make it very obvious to everyone that Russia has absolutely no interest in peace.
Well, nearly everyone.
Instead of recognising the situation for what it is and punishing Russia with those long talked about sanctions, Trump instead gave him a free pass.
“Why would he go if I’m not going?” Trump said before the two delegations had even sat down in the same room.
The appeasement continued after the talks, with Trump saying: “I always felt there can’t be a meeting without me because I don’t think a deal’s going to get through…”
In Ukraine there was disbelief — a now regular feeling driven home time and time again by Trump’s apparent total contentment with being played by Putin.
“Putin is mocking him, humiliating him,” a Ukrainian lawmaker told me, adding: “What’s the point in these negotiations?”
Trump also insisted that “Putin is tired of this whole thing”, but the Russian demands laid out in Istanbul suggest anything but.
The Demands
To understand what Russia hoped to achieve in Istanbul, you need to look at who Putin sent.
Russia’s delegation was headed by Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky, who also headed the Russian delegation the last time the two sides sat down for talks in the early weeks of the invasion in 2022.
Back then, the situation was vastly different to what it is now — Russia occupied nearly a quarter of Ukraine, its forces were marching on Kyiv, and Western military support consisted of helmets and Javelins, rather than tanks, fighter jets, and long-range missiles.
From this position of strength, Russia demanded Ukraine’s effective capitulation — the demilitarisation of the country, great swathes of its land, and a promise never to join NATO.
More than three years later, having suffered nearly a million losses and occupying less Ukrainian land, the Kremlin still feels it can make the very same demands, and Medinsky is back to pick up where he left off.
After the talks ended, Ukrainian officials confirmed this — Russia had once again (the fourth time now) refused to agree to a full ceasefire and had demanded Ukraine withdraw from four regions, which it doesn’t even control in their entirety.
The Kremlin is now so emboldened by the Trump administration’s position that it’s as if three years of Ukrainian resistance, backed by the West, never even happened.
The Russian economy
According to Economist journalist Oliver Carroll, Medinsky during the talks made clear — as if it wasn’t already — that Russia has no intention of stopping the war.
“We don’t want war, but we are ready to fight for a year, two years, three years — however long it takes. We have been at war with Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?” he reportedly said.
But there’s a problem here — despite all the rhetoric, there are significant signs that Russia’s ability to wage a long war is not quite as viable as Medinsky makes out.
The latest comes from the Russian state itself — the Kremlin’s statistics agency Rosstat this week came out with a report showing Russia’s economy is experiencing a dramatic slowdown in growth.
Russia’s GDP grew by only 1.4% in the first quarter of 2025, down from 4.5% growth in the previous quarter, and 5.4% in the same period last year.
Russia’s own Economic Development Ministry had predicted a level of 1.7%.
The Hungarian spying scandal
Relations between Ukraine and Europe’s most pro-Russian country, Hungary, have always been strained, but a recent spying scandal has taken those to new rocky lows.
In a first, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) claimed on May 9 that it had discovered a Hungarian military intelligence network tasked with gathering information on Ukraine’s military defenses in the western region of Zakarpattia.
The region has long been a source of tension between the two countries as it is home to a sizeable ethnic Hungarian minority. Budapest has accused Kyiv of suppressing their rights, while Kyiv has accused Budapest of undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty by issuing dual citizenships.
But the discovery of the intelligence network takes it to another level, even leading to a tit-for-tat expulsion of diplomats from both countries.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has politicised the scandal, saying it’s all a plot by Ukraine in conjunction with his opposition to meddle in Hungary’s internal affairs.
It’s a delicate matter for Ukraine though — Kyiv hopes to join the EU and as a member of the bloc already, Hungary has veto power of its accession.
But On A Positive Note…
It may be three years too late, but the EU has finally announced a plan to end its dependency on Russian energy. By 2027, the bloc will completely sever imports of Russian gas, oil, and nuclear fuel.
Announcing the plan, EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen said: “Energy that comes to our continent should not pay for a war of aggression against Ukraine. We owe this to our citizens, to our companies, and to our brave Ukrainian friends”.
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While the move has been welcomed in Ukraine, it highlights once again a very uncomfortable truth — whilst sending weapons to Kyiv and opposing Russia’s full-scale invasion, European money has, in part, helped fund it.