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Fear and Favour: What Does Trump Owe Putin? Maybe His Life

With the increasingly bizarre compliance of the US President to the Russian President, Zarina Zabrisky wonders if the KGB/FSB tradition of assassination and mafia-style intimidation may be key

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky argues with US President Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House 28 February. Photo: Alamy

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US President Donald Trump’s alleged long history of business ties with Russian mafia-linked figures and authorities has been widely reported. The Kremlin’s political playbook is built on blackmail, coercion, and assassination.

If Trump fails to serve Putin’s interests, could he become the next target?


Threats, Veiled and Unveiled

The first time Putin publicly congratulated his counterpart on winning the 2024 Presidential election, on 7 November, he brought up the earlier attempt on Donald Trump’s life. “His behavior during the assassination attempt impressed me. … And it’s not just about his raised hand and his call to fight for his ideals, it’s not just about that, although a person shows himself in extraordinary circumstances. And he showed himself in a very appropriate way, in a manly manner, like a man.”

In the context of Kremlin modus operandi and mafia lingo, such a mention is a veiled threat.

Also on 7 November, on Russian state television, a political talk show, 60 Minutes, aired nude (and blurred) photos of Melania Trump, which was considered another veiled threat.

Putin’s aide and a former FSB director, Nikolai Patrushev followed up with a more transparent statement on 11 November, saying that “to achieve success in the elections, Donald Trump relied on certain forces to which he has corresponding obligations. And as a responsible person, he will be obliged to fulfill them… the election campaign is over, and in January 2025, it will be time for the specific actions of the elected president…”

Asked about potential consequences, Patrushev said, “We know of two cases of assassination attempts on his [Trump’s] life during the election campaign,” and went on to give statistics on the US assassinations of US Presidents with the astonishing exactitude, “In general, throughout the history of the United States, attempts have been made on the lives of Presidents and candidates regularly — more than 20 times. Four US presidents were killed by assassins during their tenure.”

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The main architect of Russia’s modern espionage followed up with a piece of wisdom for US security services, “Therefore, it is extremely important for US intelligence agencies to prevent a recurrence of such cases.”

Putin continued with this popular trend during his press conference in Kazakhstan on 28 November 2024, “You know, I think that you were also most shocked not even by the fact that absolutely uncivilized means of struggle were used against Trump, absolutely uncivilized, including attempted multiple murders (by the way, in my opinion, he is not safe now).”

The Russian President then asked, “What do you think? All sorts of things have happened in the history of the United States. I think he’s a smart and, I hope, cautious, person; he understands all this.”

Putin did not stop there. “But I was more shocked that during the attacks on him, during the fight against him, not only was he subjected to humiliating, unfounded procedures, legal charges, and so on, but the members of his family, his children, were attacked.”

And so there would be no doubt that the legal troubles are not the only plights awaiting the US President, Putin explained the habits of Russian bandits, referring to them as “our bandits”, saying, “Our bandits don’t do that. When criminal groups fight among themselves, they don’t touch women and children, they leave them alone, men fight among themselves. But these guys touched them, you understand?”

The emphasis here is on “you understand.”

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Russian Mafia and KGB High-Profile Political Assasinations

Putin once likened his childhood to the harsh life of Brazilian street gangs. Rising from rags to power through a fusion of mafia networks and the KGB in 1990s St. Petersburg, he used blackmail, extortion, kompromat, and killings, later forging alliances with oligarchs and criminal groups. His KGB career, beginning in 1975, saw him suppress dissent and recruit informants. The KGB, now the FSB, has a long history of physically eliminating opponents and inconvenient allies.

“Soviet hit squads had been a routine feature of the first Cold War,” according to the Atlantic Council. “Following a brief lull during the 1990s, President Putin reopened the door to Kremlin assassinations on foreign soil when he backed a new Russian law in 2006 authorizing extrajudicial killings abroad under the guise of combating extremism and terrorism. The troubling nature of this law was raised early on by London-based Russian defector Alexander Litvinenko, who warned that it could be used to target Putin’s personal enemies.

Hardly surprising that in 2006, former FSB officer Aleksander Litvinenko was poisoned with Polonium-210 in London. In 2018, ex-spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter were poisoned with Novichok, as was opposition leader Alexey Navalny—with the poison rubbed into the seams of the underwear. Navalny survived but was slowly-killed in prison in 2020. Moscow denied involvement.

The Kremlin eliminates not only enemies but also allies. In August 2023, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s jet crashed, killing ten. The Wagner chief, once close to Putin, led a brief mutiny before his likely assassination—a warning to Russia’s elite.

Western leaders are also under Russian threat. The Kremlin assassins allegedly eliminated targets in the UK. And in 2019, reports of Kremlin-linked threats to European politicians emerged. In 2024, US intelligence reported that the Kremlin planned to assassinate the chief executive of a German arms manufacturer producing artillery shells and military vehicles for Ukraine.

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Trump

Trump does not just have longstanding ties to Russian business. In the 1980s, the KGB allegedly targeted him as a potential asset.

After a 1987 Moscow visit, he paid for anti-NATO ads. His first wife, Ivana, may have aided KGB profiling. In 1996, he negotiated $250 million in Russian investments. A 2017 Reuters review found that 63 Russians spent $98.4 million on Trump-branded Florida properties. USA Today reported 65 Trump World condos in Manhattan went to Russian buyers, including criminals linked to money laundering. The FBI later found Russian mob boss Vyacheslav Ivankov living in Trump Tower.


Praise, With a Warning

On 27 February, at the annual meeting of the FSB, Putin switched to praising Trump, saying that “the first contacts with the new American administration inspire certain hopes.”

“There is a reciprocal attitude to work on restoring interstate relations, on gradually resolving the colossal volume of accumulated systemic, strategic problems in the world architecture,” said a former FSB officer Putin. “It is important that our current partners demonstrate pragmatism, a realistic view of things, reject many stereotypes, the so-called rules, and the messianic, ideological cliches of their predecessors, which, in fact, led to the crisis of the entire system of international relations…”

The praise came with a warning, though.

“Not everyone is satisfied with the resumption of Russian-American contacts. Some Western elites are still determined to maintain instability in the world, and these forces will try to disrupt or compromise the dialogue that has begun. We see this. We need to take this into account and use all the possibilities of diplomacy and special services to disrupt such attempts.”

Putin’s track record shows a clear pattern of using intimidation and physically eliminating those who fail to comply with his agenda. If Trump opposed Russia, the Kremlin might not just release salacious but harmless kompromat. Polonium-laced tea or Novichok-infused underwear is always on the table.


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