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This coming week will mark 1,000 days since Russia launched their all-out invasion of Ukraine.
In those 1,000 days, and through many hundreds of thousands of individual acts of bravery, Ukraine has demonstrated time and time again that the country and her people will not capitulate to Russia’s attempts to subjugate this sovereign nation. And, going forward, as people search for ways to end this war, Ukraine will still not capitulate.
The return of Donald Trump to the presidency will, for better or worse, have a major impact on world affairs. But it is perhaps in regard to the war in Ukraine that his decisions may have the biggest impact and the President-Elect needs to understand that means, therefore, that Ukrainians get a say in whether or not they accept whatever decisions he may make.
At the outset of this phase of the war, after rejecting overtures to move himself and his Government into exile, Ukraine’s President famously said, “I need ammo, not a ride”, and the situation remains now as it was then.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy refused to capitulate, and simply requested the tools needed to stand up to the challenge. Driven by the understanding that theirs was an existential fight, men and women flocked to take up arms to fight the invaders, and since those first days the mood for this fight was set. Ukraine, thought to have only a few days to stand, stood firm and fought back.
It is the intention of Ukraine, from everything I read and hear, to continue to stand firm and fight back; nobody can deny them that right.
As things stand, there is no “peace plan” for Ukraine on the table. There are, as Trump likes to say, “concepts of a plan” though. We hear ideas being raised constantly (usually accompanied by qualifiers like “the simplest path to peace in Ukraine is…” because they are simple ideas not grasping the complexities or roots of the situation) about the kinds of concessions that Ukraine is going to have to make.
Why? What single concession has Ukraine made to Russia in the 1,000 days since 24 February 2022? Why would Ukraine start to make concessions now?
It has often been said that one of the problems with the approach taken by President Joe Biden was that he did not have a clear plan to end the war. There is some justification in that.
However, and this is very important, Ukraine does have a clear plan to end the war and it is that plan – understood almost universally in Ukraine – that has kept this fighting spirit unbroken throughout 1,000 days of hardship, suffering, and pain.
The plan is to end the war by undoing the acts that came at the very beginning of it a decade ago, by making the Russian occupation of any part of Ukraine untenable. Yes, including Crimea.
Those who are pushing Ukraine to cede part of the country to Russia, be that “just” Crimea, or all of the occupied territories, to bring the active fighting to a close all fail to understand what they are advocating for.
They will have created a modern precedent for recognising borders redrawn by military force in Europe. Such things should be behind us. The people who are pushing Ukraine to give up “land” need to realise that the fate of the Ukrainians they propose abandoning would be to live under Russian fascism, and this should be unconscionable.
Other elements of the “concept of a plan” are rumoured to include a situation akin to that on the Korean peninsula where there is an armistice, and a demilitarised zone between the two sides.
In South Korea this arrangement works because it is literally reinforced by the permanent presence of 25,000 US boots on the ground. While it seems that the US is helpfully suggesting that in the case of Ukraine this would be done by forces from European countries, and that’s more than just a technical detail to be worked out later, the DMZ in Korea is 160 miles long whereas the frontline in Ukraine is more than five times that.
And then of course the final reason why Ukrainians see no immediate prospect for success for any kind of “peace plan” struck with the Kremlin is that would be a deal struck with the Kremlin. Therefore, not worth the paper it is written on.
It is not just that Ukraine doesn’t trust Vladimir Putin to keep his word, it is that there is already, to date, a long list of treaties and agreements broken by Russia when they decide to ignore them, and international law, in search of more conquest and war.
No peace deal with Russia is likely to last the test of time, because none before them ever have. Putin would gratefully take the reprieve, rebuild, and attack again down the line.
There is, however, an alternative. Due to the already demonstrated fact that Ukraine has not and will not capitulate, Ukraine’s allies have a partner that is ready to do a job that is a necessity for them, defeating the nemesis of said allies.
Now, this is not to get into the conspiracy territory of Ukraine being used as a tool to bleed out Russia on behalf of the United States. Ukraine will bleed out Russia on behalf of Ukraine, but others will be the beneficiaries.
After 1,000 days of war, let’s take stock. Moments of considering capitulation: zero. Dead and maimed Russian soldiers: over 700,000. Number of Russian tanks lost: over 3,000 and the stuff being pulled out of mothballs is 70 years old. Number of IFVs lost: an amount that they cannot replace with current manufacturing rates. The Russian economy: in the toilet that 1/3 of Russian citizens don’t have access to. With such accomplishments, which have come at enormous costs, why would you ask Ukraine to capitulate?
Rather, now is the time to put the boot in. Russia can and must be defeated and the coming period may be the perfect storm of factors combining to accomplish that end state, which is the only real peace plan in town.
Russia does not have unlimited military manpower. If they did, Putin wouldn’t have had to beg North Korea for 10,000 soldiers. If they did, they wouldn’t have needed to empty their prisons to take Bakhmut. If they did, they wouldn’t be forcing foreign students to fight in Ukraine.
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Even if Russia could generate the forces that it needs to maintain the fight, pretty soon they’ll be lacking all kinds of equipment to fight effectively with. And, in one way and (not or) another, the Russian economy is going to continue to circle the plug hole too which of course undermines the current regime.
The way to end this war is to hasten the destruction of all that remains of the Russian military machine, and that allows us to begin to talk about a just peace for Ukraine.
So that a just peace can be won, Ukraine will not capitulate, Ukraine will fight on, the decisions taken by partners on weapons provided and how they can be used determines how long it will be until that just peace is won.