What Gazans Really Think of the War, Who They Blame, and What They Want to Happen Next

One of the most common justifications for Israel’s assault on Gaza following Hamas’s terrorist attack on Israel last year is that “all Palestinians are guilty”, because they all, allegedly, support Hamas.

Israel’s defenders often point to images of some Gazan residents celebrating the October 7 attacks, and to reports that some Israeli hostages were detained in Palestinian homes, or that some hospitals and schools were knowingly shielding Hamas fighters on their premises, to back up this assertion.

This argument is then used to fend off accusations that Israel’s conduct during the war has violated international humanitarian law, by indiscriminately killing or injuring too many innocent civilians.

If all Palestinians back Hamas, whether directly or indirectly, the argument goes, that they are all fair game in the conflict. The thousands of young Palestinian children killed by Israeli bombs are just the regrettable collateral damage of their parents’ collective culpability.

But the findings of a recent opinion poll conducted between 8-17 August by The Arab World for Research and Development, a respected research institute based in Palestine, challenge these claims. The poll was based on phone interviews with 538 adult Palestinians across Gaza, representing a cross section of men and women, of all ages, and with a range of educational attainment.

When you consider that over 97% of participants have been displaced during this current conflict, giving them every reason to distrust Israel, the findings are extraordinary.

Some 41% of interviewees remain hopeful about their future, despite over 60% believing the war will continue at its current intensity for three months or more, and 17% that it will last up to another six months.

An overwhelming majority – 91% – somewhat or strongly support the Biden administration’s ceasefire proposal. This includes majority support (86%) for the release of Israeli hostages in return for the release of Palestinian prisoners, and, (74%) for international management of the Rafah border, as part of any ceasefire deal, until a permanent arrangement is reached.

Hope also remains for a longer-term peace process, with 62% of correspondents backing a two-state solution as their preferred outcome, though this is down from 77% supporting this in a similar poll in May. In second place, 19% favour a one-state solution, up 6% from May.

The most interesting findings concern Palestinians’ views on who they blame for their current predicament, and who they would support as their representatives in any future Palestinian-led government of Gaza.

While 74% believe Israel is not serious about reaching an agreement, 20% don’t think Hamas is serious about a ceasefire deal either. Over half, (53%) believe Hamas is not serious about achieving a national unity government with Fatah. And only 20% or so of correspondents believe the Palestinian Authority’s performance through the war has been satisfactory.

Most correspondents (71%) would prefer a Palestinian-led administration to run Gaza after the war. When asked who they would trust most to lead this, only 6% said Hamas; 40% would prefer a Fatah-led Government, and 36% back a joint Fatah-Hamas government.

Public support for democratic processes also remains high. Over 80% of Palestinians would support the holding of Presidential and parliamentary elections after the war. In such elections, 6% said they would vote for Hamas, 47% for Fatah, 17% for none of the above, and 15% would abstain.

These results initially seem at odds with surveys done by different Palestinian researchers at earlier stages of the war, such as several involving Palestinians in the West Bank as well as Gaza, conducted by well-known pollster Khalil Shikaki’s West Bank-based Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research.

These suggested that until recently a majority of Palestinians continued to support the Hamas-led 7 October attack, and still favour Hamas over Fatah, because they view Hamas as being more successful in resisting Israel and garnering international attention for their cause.

In an interview with NPR in July, Shikaki was at pains to clarify that these surveys did not mean that a majority of Palestinians supported the actual massacres and atrocities which occurred on October 7.

According to him, the problem is that over 90% of Palestinians simply do not believe that Hamas committed such crimes, but think they are part of an Israeli fabrication. When shown actual video clips of the atrocities, more Palestinians condemn them.

Shikaki’s most recent poll, conducted in early September, reflects a further significant drop in support for the October 7 attack, for Hamas, and for armed struggle, and a rise in support for a two-state solution and negotiations with Israel.

The most revealing aspect of these polls, however, is the contrast they provide with Israeli attitudes towards the war, their leaders, and their long-term futures.

On the Palestinian side, Hamas would seem to be pursuing the war, against the wishes of a majority of the Palestinians whom it claims to represent, despite not having allowed a free election in Gaza since 2006.

The vast majority of Palestinians would appear to have no say in the conduct of the war. Arguably, they are innocent of the wider outrages being committed in their name and are rather the innocent victims of outrages being committed against them.

If given the chance to vote freely, a growing number of Palestinians, emphatically would not want Hamas to continue to represent them.

By contrast, Israel’s government, the democratic party in this conflict, would appear to be pursuing the war in Gaza, with the active support of a majority of its citizens.

Israelis, by virtue of living in a democratic society, do have a say in the conduct of this war, and appear to be willing to allow it to proceed, in their name, despite the hardship and suffering this is inflicting on millions of Palestinian civilians.

Israeli support for their leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, appears to be growing, the longer the war goes on, despite the continuing risk to Israeli hostages, the growing international criticism, and the risk of regional escalation.

These findings are borne out by successive polls conducted on the Israeli side. For example, a Pew Research Centre survey in May found that only 19% of Israelis felt that the army’s actions in Gaza had gone too far, with 39% believing it had been “about right” and 34% saying it had not gone far enough.

Another opinion poll, conducted by Lazar Research and published in August in the Israeli newspaper Maariv, indicated that despite growing public opposition to Netanyahu’s handling of the war, he still remained the top choice of Israelis to be their country’s leader, at 42%, versus 40% support for his main rival, Benny Gantz, the head of the National Unity party.

The poll also found that Netanyahu’s Likud party would come first in parliamentary elections if a vote was held that day, though his broader coalition, including hard-right parties, would lose support.

After suffering a strong dip in support for the first six months of the war, Netanyahu and his party now seem to be enjoying something of a resurgence. According to analysis by the Israeli newspaper, Haaretz, this is largely due to Israelis rallying around their leader again, in response to the threat of a wider regional war, drawing in Lebanon and Iran.

In addition, while a majority of Palestinians also still hold out hope for a two-state solution, albeit less so than before the war, a growing majority of Israelis reject this.

According to a Pew Research Center poll conducted in early April, only 26% of Israelis now believe a way can be found for Israel and an independent Palestinian state to coexist peacefully.

However, there are clear fissures within Israeli society, with Israelis who identify themselves as being on the political left, and Arab Israelis, being far more critical of Netanyahu and more open to a ceasefire, than religiously observant Jews and Israelis who identify on the political right.

It’s easy to say that, “of course”, Palestinians in Gaza are more likely to favour peace than Israelis, given that they are facing utter devastation, while Israel is by far the stronger party, benefiting from continued support from the West.

However, these different poll findings also suggest that it may be misplaced to keep holding Hamas and the Palestinians primarily to blame for the continuation of the war, as the US and many other Western governments have tended to do, at least in public.

Hamas are undeniably guilty of starting the war, of exacerbating the suffering of Palestinian citizens by hiding amongst them, and of keeping innocent Israelis as hostages. But support for Hamas and armed struggle is fading, the longer the war goes on, giving them every incentive to seek resolution. Their current approach does not enjoy the backing of their people.

By contrast, Netanyahu and his coalition appear to be the party with the most to gain by letting the war continue, and even escalate it, since it seems to be having the effect of rallying the Israeli public behind them, and diminishing Israeli support for a two state solution, something which Netanyahu has long opposed. Most Israelis did not choose this war, but they are allowing it to continue.

Tensions in the region are even more on a knife edge following the pager and walkie-talkie attacks on Hizbollah operatives earlier this week, the presumed work of Israeli intelligence.

If they wish to avoid a full-on regional war, perhaps it is time for the US and many other Western administrations to finally acknowledge what they have long chosen to gloss over – that most Palestinians did not choose this war, yet are now bearing its harshest consequences; and that it is the Israeli government which is actively choosing to prolong the conflict and risk its escalation, with the active support of many Israelis.