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The ‘shy Tory effect’ has been around since the early 1990s, but the phenomenon – used to describe how election polls would underestimate the Conservative vote because people were embarrassed to admit that they voted for the party – has taken on an entirely new meaning during this year’s general election campaign.
For it is now Conservative Party members, not voters, who seem most uncomfortable showing their colours.
The ‘shy Tory effect’, first observed by pollsters and psephologists, found that the share of the electoral vote won by the Conservative Party was significantly higher than the equivalent share in opinion polls.
The accepted explanation for the term was that ‘shy Tories’ were voting Conservative, but telling pollsters otherwise. It is said to have impacted both the 1992 and 2015 General Election results.
Byline Times needs your help to investigate disinformation and electoral exclusion as we head towards the 2024 General Election.
We’re asking for your help to keep track of dodgy campaigning this election, so if you spot anything that bears investigation, please email us at votewatch24@bylinetimes.com.
While Labour has dipped slightly in recent polls, it stills hold a 20-point lead over the Conservatives.
Since Rishi Sunak announced a 4 July election, several Conservative parliamentary and Police and Crime Commissioner candidates have been rather shy about advertising the party they are standing for – with little obvious mention of the party that has held power for 14 years in campaign literature.
Andrew Bowie, a Conservative candidate in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, is running a highly personalised campaign, with little acknowledgement of the party he is running for, though, he does make clear who he is running against.
One of his campaign leaflets mentions twice in small print that Bowie is the Scottish Conservatives candidate, but claims twice in large font that “it’s either Andrew Bowie or the SNP”. Bowie has a majority of less than 1,000 votes, meaning he is at risk of losing his seat.
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It seems that even Rishi Sunak is feeling a tad shy.
A letter shown to Byline Times by a couple from Dorset – sent round to elderly voters on behalf of the Prime Minister – only mentions the Conservative Party in small print at the bottom of the document. Instead, Sunak uses the words “we” or “we’ll” to describe party actions and promises.
Sunak’s letter also asks voters not to vote for Reform, and appears to concede that the Conservatives will lose the election: “If people like you vote for Reform, you risk handing Keir Starmer over 100 extra seats and a huge majority.”
The letter continues: “A vote for Reform won’t just result in the election of one Labour MP or Lib Dem MP – it risks so much more. That’s because the Lib Dems are on board with everything Starmer wants to do. So you won’t have anyone holding him to account on your behalf.”
Tom Brake, director of Unlock Democracy, a group campaigning for increased participatory democracy, told Byline Times: “Whether it is in their direct mail, leaflets or newspapers, candidates owe it to their electors to be up front about which party they are representing. Voters shouldn’t need a magnifying glass to work out who is seeking to influence their vote.”
Conservative MP Andrea Jenkyns has put Nigel Farage on her ‘Misleading’ Campaign Leaflets and Electoral Authorities say There’s Nothing They can do About it
The leaflets give voters the false impression that she has been endorsed by the Reform UK leader
Robert Largan, the incumbent Conservative candidate for High Peak, recently came under fire for the unusual tactic of posting his name in the colours of Labour and Reform on X (formerly Twitter) with the captions “Reform for Robert and “Labour for Robert”. These were accompanied by posts on his campaign website with the same slogans.
Largan said he was “proud of the fact some local Labour voters and Reform voters are switching to support me based on my record of local delivery”.
But social media users branded the tactic “pathetic” and “inauthentic”, with several people accusing Largan of breaking the law. Derbyshire Police investigated the matter and announced that no action would be taken