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Going into the second half of 2024, various regional conflicts continue to brew, with many of them being intertwined in a potential outcome of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin, the two-decade autocrat of Russia, is preparing for a longtime war with imperial ambitions beyond Ukraine. Xi Jinping, the Chinese premier, is watching events unfold, pondering what kind of response the West could potentially give to Taiwan.
Events and response times in the Middle East, Africa, South Caucasus, and the Korean Peninsula could also come to blows as the geopolitical quagmire escalates.
Given the tensions, especially towards foes with conventional militaries, NATO should help Ukraine more and introduce special operations capable forces and intelligence assets to prepare for global conflicts.
Russian Invasion of Ukraine
The first initial Russian invasion of Ukraine occurred during the illegal seizure and annexation of Crimea in 2014 by the Kremlin’s “little green men,” which happened to be GRU Spetznaz. A few months later, Russian FSB operatives led by Igor Strelkov ignited a war in Ukraine’s Donbas region.
The United Kingdom and its highly capable special forces, such as the Royal Marines and SAS, would become some of the first Western forces to provide enhanced training to the Ukrainian military, who, in the early days of the war, were more disorganised and corrupted due to negligence.
Putin would later declare a total war, and the biggest full-scale invasion on the European continent would ensue. Western countries rushed to Ukraine’s aid and continued the training program the British had sponsored for several years.
Putin Hoped for a Swift Victory in Ukraine to Rebuild his Russian Empire — Instead he may Have Lost all Military Influence
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has cost it thousands of lives and hundreds of billions of dollars – but its military influence has also taken a major hit
Both Ukraine and Russia have suffered heavy military casualties in the past two years, with Moscow amassing the worst battlefield casualties not seen in the country since World War Two.
Despite not reaching any of their primary objectives, such as the dismantling of Ukraine’s government in Kyiv, demilitarisation, and enacting the Novorossiya project by attempting to make Ukraine landlocked, Russian forces have recently gained momentum.
Seven months of political gridlock in the United States that hungered military aid, slow European shell allocations, and Ukrainian shortfalls in defensive fortifications and mobilisation allowed Russia a window of opportunity to take advantage of mishaps, as seen in recent offensives.
Inside the Trenches in Ukraine Where Exhausted Soldiers Fight to Hold the Line as Ammunition Runs out
Tom Mutch tells a harrowing story of resilience and desperation
Growing Concerns Putin May Not Stop
Outside of Ukraine, the Russian Federation is making it clear that they view the collapse of the Soviet Union and Russian Empire as their greatest tragedies as various nations gained independence from the boot of Moscow.
Akin to Ukraine, nations such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Finland, Moldova, and Romania are all facing hybrid and vocal threats of war directly from Russian state officials.
Eastern Europe, particularly the Baltics, Moldova, Finland, and Poland, have raised the alarm over Russia’s aggressive posture and hybrid warfare against them. One of NATO’s weak points is the Suwalki Gap between Poland and Lithuania, and the Kremlin has always wanted to physically unite Kaliningrad with Russia proper—especially as the oblast is now more isolated than ever after Sweden and Finland joined NATO.
A major policy in the war allowed Russia to adapt and gain the initiative, which was the restriction of Western weaponry on Russian territory.
The Kremlin, knowing Western indecision is impeding the Ukrainian military from striking key targets across the border, is using such advantages to amass forces near the border and use Russian airspace to bomb Ukraine unabated.
Ultimately wanting to enact the Novorossiya project, the Russian Federation would be in direct conflict with Moldova, Romania, and Poland and the Baltic states. If Odesa were to be forcibly taken and annexed by Russia, the Russian military could link with the illegitimate breakaway state of Transnistria in Moldova, which would bring a new war to the country along with a potential Romanian intervention.
Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, stated a fall of Odesa or Kyiv to Russia could bring a French-led military intervention, and recently, it has been reported by the German outlet Spiegel that Eastern Europe (Poland and the Baltics) could also intervene if Russian forces overwhelm the eastern regions of Ukraine and push westward towards them.
Growing Worldwide Tensions of Conventional Threats
Rising global tensions in various regions are displaying a need for a new rapprochement, diplomatic policy, and contingencies by the West to be r