How Will Labour Navigate the Crisis-Hit Britain it Could Inherit?

How Will Labour Navigate the Crisis-Hit Britain it Could Inherit?

Opinion polls are looking good for Labour – but in victory Keir Starmer would inherit the greatest challenges ever faced by an incoming prime minister, writes Gareth Roberts

If opinion polls are anything to go by, the Labour Party is set to win the next general election with a landslide never before seen in British political history.

Unfortunately for Keir Starmer’s party, the situation it will inherit will be incomparable to what it faced when it was swept to victory in May 1997. 

Back then, although the song that accompanied its victory suggested that “things can only get better”, the reality was that things were, on reflection, actually already pretty good.

The economy, after the debacle of Black Wednesday and the UK’s ejection from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, was stable; and the two years up to 1997 had seen a gradual reduction in unemployment together with two years of fairly solid growth. Europe was still an exciting adventure with the UK’s signature on the Maastricht Treaty. The Northern Ireland peace process had already been kick-started by the work of John Major. The Civil Service was vibrant. And the incoming New Labour Government was united. 

The legacy that Starmer will in all likelihood inherit from Liz Truss, will be very different indeed.

For a start, it is almost impossible to predict the state of the economy – the UK could be in a deep recession after a catastrophic rise in interest rates have decimated people’s incomes or experience a period of dogged stagflation, as Truss’ plan for growth is humiliatingly dismantled. Either way, Labour will inherit an economy which will be, at best, unstable with eye-wateringly high levels of government borrowing that will give a Labour-run Treasury little room for manoeuvre.  

Similarly, Labour will grasp the tiller of a nation with a standing in the world as low as it has ever been. Estranged from Europe, not a priority for the US, and pretty much ignored by everyone else with the trade deals that were promised by Brexit-supporting ministers smashed on the rocks of economic incompetence and the International Monetary Fund’s withering assertion that the UK is like ‘a developing nation’. 

But that won’t be all. The standing of politicians is at an all-time low – the Conservatives may have demonstrated an unprecedented level of incompetence and political arrogance, but the repeated allegation from the electorate is that ‘politicians are all the same.’ Labour will have to prove quickly that it is different and can be trusted, otherwise its period of office will be short-lived. 

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So what could Labour do if the opinion polls are right and Keir Starmer and his colleagues are thrust into government? 

The impression so far is that Starmer’s greatest asset may well be the ability to restore a level of basic aptitude to govern that has been missing in the chaos of recent years. But that, of course, won’t be enough – Labour will have to pursue a programme for government.

Priority one should be to restore confidence and raise the morale of the public sector. Civil servants, legal aid lawyers, doctors, nurses or council workmen will likely all offer the same refrain that their job has been undermined and diminished financially – that must end. Labour must properly reward public sector workers and restore the confidence of the Civil Service by restoring them to their proper role as objective and professional providers of public policy. 

Abroad, a Labour government would need to start the process of restoring Britain’s international reputation – not by grandstanding but by showing some humility. This would include treating the EU as a friend rather than a manufactured bogeyman to be feared and opposed. The UK certainly has a lot to offer the world, but at the moment, its reputation has sunk so low, that it struggling to be taken seriously. 

Another priority should be to end the creeping ‘presidentialisation’ of British politics. Both Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, in particular, have made the office of head of government all about them, eschewing any opposition and removing anyone remotely seen as a threat. The result has been incompetence at ministerial level and a shift in the way Parliament operates.

Keir Starmer must return government to being an institution in which competence and skill are rewarded above blind loyalty. One in which Cabinet ministers are given the opportunity to properly debate and oppose the leadership if they see fit – so that public policy is the best it can possibly be, rather than a short-term attempt to maximise positive headlines.

More tricky, will be a willingness to take on the hostile press. In recent years, the brutal partisanship of the print media, together with the ‘culture war’ agenda peddled by some of the fledgling news TV channels, has made it very difficult for Labour to gain any traction. Meanwhile, the structural flaws at the heart of many sections of Britain’s billionaire-owned media remain. How will Labour navigate this?

Ultimately, the biggest challenge for Labour will be to govern for the whole of the United Kingdom – ensuring that the voices of nationalism in Scotland and Wales are listened to, without simply dismissing their concerns; and resisting the temptation to force a social agenda on parts of the country that might not always be as receptive to it as metropolitan areas.

His speech at the Labour Conference showed that Keir Starmer’s party has the energy, the policies, the desire and the personnel to govern – the aim now will be take that into government during what might turn out to one of the most turbulent times in our history. 

Gareth Roberts is a barrister