Ukraine War and Refugee Crisis Turns the Hungarian Election Campaign on its Head

Ukraine War and Refugee Crisis Turns the Hungarian Election Campaign on its Head

The war has reshuffled the cards ahead of Hungary’s election, with Hungarian society showing its best side by helping refugees from neighbouring Ukraine

The station in Záhony is Hungary’s main rail connection with Ukraine. Nine trains a day come from Chop, a town on the other side of the border. In peacetime, the line was chiefly used by commuters; many of them members of the Hungarian minority community in Transcarpathia. 

Now it is the main route for Ukrainians who flee to Hungary from Vladimir Putin’s barbaric assault on their lives.

Each one of the thousands who arrive in Záhony every day tells a unique personal tragedy. Yet their stories all share something in common. They have fled bombardment, explosions, air-raid sirens. They have made the heartbreaking decision to leave their homes and loved ones behind. They have journeyed for three days to reach the border, hopeful of welcome. 

That welcome is offered by volunteers in Hungarian churches and from other organisations such as World Food Kitchen. The locals on the border are also doing their bit. Churchgoers from nearby villages welcome the arrivals with a large pot of stuffed cabbage and there are also stories of locals rushing for food or water to help the refugees.

Once here, 50% of the new arrivals go to other European countries, while the other half intend to remain in Hungary, according to Botond, a volunteer at a local school that has been transformed into temporary accommodation for refugees.  

The open arms welcome is not just apparent in the border towns – it can be found across the Hungarian population as a whole. Facebook groups (the largest of which counts 126,000 members) were created to help Ukrainians in need of temporary or permanent accommodation, a job, or a ride even to other countries. 

Fears that seven years of xenophobic rhetoric coming from the right-wing, authoritarian Government has poisoned the Hungarians’ psyche forever proved to be unfounded. 

That xenophobic story is well known. In 2015, when Syrians tried to reach the European Union, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán quickly saw an opportunity to exploit the country’s fear of the unknown. Despite many Hungarians keen to extend hospitality to those in urgent need, his Fidesz Party started to communicate hateful messages. In a precursor to his fellow strongman leader Trump, Orbán built a fence on the country’s border with Serbia. 

Fidesz built their 2018 election campaign exclusively on this anti-migration sentiment which many understand to be the sole reason behind their two-thirds majority.

Now, with a new election taking place the first week of April, will a new attitude towards refugees win out?

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Changing Tides

It is obvious that this war will also play a significant role in Hungary’s next general election on 3 April. In contrast to the country’s previous encounter with an influx of refugees, neither Fidesz nor the United Opposition is attempting to appeal to xenophobia. 

This can partly be explained by the heavy Transcarpathian Hungarian presence among the refugees. But for now, all those seeking asylum – whether Hungarian, Ukrainian, or from a third country – are treated much better than their predecessors were in 2015. 

At first glance, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine favours the Opposition campaign. 

For years now they have argued that Hungary got too close to Vladimir Putin’s Russia under Viktor Orbán’s ‘Eastern Opening’ policy. This policy was designed to open Hungary up economically to undemocratic countries outside its alliance network. 

Fidesz argued that these countries not being democratic should not be a burden as they are only interested in mutual economic prosperity. This main thesis of illiberalism has now proven to be wrong: it became evident that Putin is not a rational politician but a dictator who poses grave danger to Hungary’s immediate neighbourhood.

The opposition played their cards accordingly. They organised three anti-Putin protests and started pushing paid adverts in constituencies labelling Fidesz’s candidates as “Putin’s sidekicks”. Their hope now is to portray the election as a choice between Hungary’s place in the EU and NATO, or close with Putin and Russia. If they pull this off, they have a good chance of getting a mandate from Hungary’s overwhelmingly pro-EU and pro-NATO electorate.

This task is far from straightforward, however. 

Fidesz, who are masters in reading the mood of the Hungarian public, will not try to fight the election on the same basis. Instead, countering the opposition’s furious tone, Orbán’s Government is busy portraying itself as a calm force – the guarantor of Hungary staying out of the war. 

They’re doing so using disinformation.

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The Disinformation War

In response to the opposition’s strategy, Hungary’s Government has launched a communication campaign that falsely accuses the opposition of wanting to send troops to Ukraine, jeopardising peace in Hungary. 

If Fidesz can maintain this narrative – which its extensive propaganda machinery has the capacity to do – it will very likely prevail come polling day on 3 April.

The rampant and established presence of Russian disinformation on Hungarian social media will also cause problems for the opposition. 

Pro-Fidesz media outlets have regularly pushed material taken from Russian disinformation channels to back Viktor Orbán’s narrative that the West is in decline and taking Hungary down with it. 

These media outlets, including Hungary’s state broadcaster, still push Russian narratives or outright disinformation regarding the war, despite the fact that Fidesz supports all proposed EU sanctions. 

Ironically, the presence of Russian propaganda in the Fidesz-affiliated media could also help the opposition. Fidesz may have accidentally unleashed forces it is unable to control. A large segment of their voters will likely be puzzled by Fidesz’s condemnation of the Russian invasion, as well as Hungary’s willingness to support all EU sanctions so far. 

Orbán will therefore have to walk an extremely tight rope not to alienate both the Atlanticist and Russophile wings of his voting base. This is likely driving his decision to support EU sanctions, while not allowing the transportation of Ukraine-bound lethal weapons through Hungary. 

But after two weeks of conflict, there are already signs that the contradictions within Fidesz’s media universe are becoming unsustainable.

The strength of Russian propaganda in Hungary is apparent. In Záhony pubs, drinkers discuss how “the Americans are profiting from the war” and “how the West is also to be blamed for the conflict”. 

The effect of propaganda is not that straightforward, however. A shopkeeper in the town, wearing opposition-leader Péter Márki-Zay’s trademark blue ribbon, expressed his clear dissatisfaction with Orbán’s relationship with Putin and stated if Fidesz wins again, what’s happening in Ukraine would happen in Hungary as well. 

Such a clear expression of enthusiasm towards the opposition used to be extremely rare in small towns like Záhony. It is easily conceivable that upon seeing Russia invade a neighbouring country, the Hungarian instinct will prevail even over years of propaganda and the electorate turns against Orbánism. 

How the war affects the upcoming election is, thus, unpredictable. However, those who want to rely on disinformation to further their cause should perhaps listen to Katerina from Ukraine. Despite fleeing from Kyiv to Záhony, she is confident her country will triumph over Russia. “You know why we’ll win?” she said. “Because the truth always wins”.