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At the last Constituency Labour Party meeting, I told members that the future of Labour hinged on Makerfield. Not just the party. The Government too.
If Reform UK won this heartland seat, a place Labour had already been told it had lost, its victory would not stop there. It would harden the story Reform wants the UK to believe: that the old Labour towns have gone; that the ‘Red Wall’ has collapsed; and Nigel Farage’s party is no longer a protest vehicle but the next force in British politics.
That is why the by-election mattered.
In the campaign, I compared Makerfield to Stalingrad. I probably went too far. Wartime analogies should be handled with care. But the point was simple. Stalingrad did not win the Second World War by itself. It broke the belief that the German advance could not be stopped.
Makerfield did something similar, on a smaller scale.
Labour held a seat it was expected to lose. Reform had already won seven of Wigan’s eight wards in May’s local elections. Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain also stood, splitting the right-wing vote. We should be honest about that. A divided right can save you in a by-election. It can sink you in a general election.
So yes, there is cause to celebrate. Briefly. Now comes the harder question: what next?
The answer cannot be managerial politics with a different accent.
Now that he is returning to Westminster, Andy Burnham cannot simply fit back into the system. His strength is that people see him as outside of it: outside of the advisors, triangulators, and Treasury priests who keep telling constituencies such as Makerfield that change must wait. He must not lose that at the door of Number 10.
A prime minister can legally take office mid-Parliament. But legality is not legitimacy. Legitimacy is political.
The democratic charge of a general election weakens when the programme changes halfway through a Parliament. Burnham will need to move quickly, clearly and decisively.
The 2024 Labour manifesto was built as a small target. It promised first steps, reviews, and repair. It gave room to govern, but not much mandate to transform. If Burnham becomes Starmerism with a Lancashire accent, he will fail. If he uses the space to build a new settlement, Labour may remember what it is for.
The first truth is simple. Reform grows where the last 40 years have failed.
People do not turn to authoritarian populism because they lack judgement or missed a lecture on moderation. They turn to it because work no longer guarantees security, public services no longer guarantee dignity, and politics no longer feels like a route to power.
Structural change is not a distraction from fighting Reform. It is the fight.
Start with water.
Private water companies have polluted rivers, raised bills, leaked supply – and rewarded shareholders. The old instinct is tougher regulation. But you cannot regulate away a problem rooted in ownership. The public understands this now. They see the sewage. They see the bills. They know who is being rinsed.
If he makes it to Downing Street, Burnham should begin there. In the first 100 days, name the worst-failing companies. Put the ‘special administration regime’ route in motion. Set out a pathway to public ownership. Stop pretending that the regulator can fix what privatisation broke. Show the country, from day one, that the government has picked a side.
Because in politics, the enemies you choose tell people who you serve.
Pick a fight with migrants, benefit claimants, or protestors – and the country knows who you are. Pick a fight with water bosses, landlords, private equity, tech monopolies, and the rentier class – and the country knows that too.
The order matters. Win the fights people already understand. Build trust. Build confidence. Then move to harder ground: the fiscal rules, Treasury orthodoxy, the Bank of England’s mandate, and the financial architecture that narrows democratic choice while pretending to be neutral.
Then comes devolution. Burnham has something few Westminster politicians possess: proof. Greater Manchester is not perfect, but it exists. It shows that power can move closer to people and still work. That model should be extended, with real fiscal and economic powers for city regions, towns, and communities.
The constitutional question cannot be ducked either. The Lords, the voting system, a written constitution, and regional assemblies may not be delivered before the next election. But they must be signalled early. Citizens’ assemblies and a national conversation should begin in the first 100 days. Labour cannot fight authoritarian politics while defending a system that feels remote, feudal, and rigged.
Finally, Andy Burnham must decide whom he trusts.
A Government that wants transformation cannot rely only on people who discovered transformation once it became convenient. The Labour left, including those who argued for public ownership, constitutional reform, and economic democracy when it cost them, must have real power inside the project.
Makerfield was not a victory. It was permission to fight.
Climate breakdown, war, energy insecurity, financial shocks, technological upheaval, and democratic decay are here. They will not wait for Labour to finish its management seminar.
The next two years will decide whether the UK meets those shocks as a democracy or slides into something darker.
No pressure, then.
Clive Lewis has been the Labour MP for Norwich South since 2015