‘Makerfield Is the Right Seat for Andy Burnham to Contest – Precisely Because It Isn’t Safe’

A little more than a month ago, Labour lost every council seat within the Makerfield constituency boundaries. Reform UK won with an average of 50.4%. Labour came a distant second on 22.7%. It was followed some way behind by the Green Party, Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats. 

That the Labour candidate, Andy Burnham, is now expected to win, and to win comfortably, in the Makerfield by-election on Thursday says a huge amount about his brand and the trust he engenders among communities that have known him for nine years as Greater Manchester Mayor, and previously as a local MP and Cabinet minister. 

As one woman told me on the doorstep last week, “I watched Andy Burnham on Question Time, and I thought, I can trust that man to do what he says he’s going to do”. Politicians don’t get that response, not in 2026. That Burnham does is a huge asset, and is credit to his achievements in Manchester and his ability to honestly connect with voters. 

A win will also be a huge collective boost to Labour morale. The triumphant mood of June 2024, when the party took power after 14 years in opposition, was shortlived. 

Early missteps did lasting damage. The decision to cut the winter fuel payment for all but the poorest pensioners, and a state of the nation speech informing the public that ‘things will get worse before they get better’ – the antithesis of Labour’s election pledge – cost it public support it has never recovered.

A win in Makerfield will therefore give Burnham the ability to make a substantial claim: that under his banner, Labour can again inspire hope, rebuild trust in working-class communities, and give people a reason to believe that a vote for Labour is a vote for change that will be realised. 

Had he chosen to stand in a seat already projected to stay with Labour at the next election – one of only 83, according to the Electoral Calculus website – he would have no such claim, leaving Reform in a far stronger position. 

Makerfield, then, was a brave move – but also a strategic one.

Beating Reform on what it doubtless considered home turf would prove it can be done – giving Burnham reason to claim that he can do it again on a national scale come the next general election. 

He will face two challenges. 

First, as Keir Starmer discovered, governing is harder than campaigning.

Burnham is standing on the promise of national change. If successful, he will soon have to deliver it, while facing the same fiscal constraints as his predecessor. 

In his favour, Andy already has two things Starmer has lacked. He has a narrative of what’s wrong, and how he intends to fix it.

“Many people here feel Westminster isn’t working for them and they are right,” he said on being selected as the Makerfield candidate. “People need life to be more affordable. I will have a relentless focus on reducing people’s everyday costs and bills, as well as securing the investment these communities need.”

And he has a track record of delivery. “As Mayor,” he said, “I have brought in changes which are helping: the £2 fare cap, free bus travel for 16-18 year olds and removing the 9.30am restriction from older and disabled people’s bus passes. But there is only so much I can do from Greater Manchester.”

Narrative and a regional track record are not enough to win in 2029, but they would give him a foundation to build from, and a story to flesh out with action on the cost of living. If he can use available resources more effectively, and narrate his choices better than Starmer, he could hope to build support nationally as he has on home turf. 

Second, despite his expected win, Makerfield will remain divided.

Walking its streets during the campaign, I have found some areas full of Reform and Restore Britain garden stakes and posters, giving every impression of a community solidly behind the populist-right. Other areas are full of Labour branding, yet there are comparatively few with a mix of the two; visible evidence of a community divided in ways that will not be undone this week. 

Winning Reform and Restore voters back will be the harder task.

In conversations with them, it has been evident they have given up not just on Labour but on all mainstream politics. The familiar refrain is one of feeling let down, ignored, and that a vote for a mainstream party is worthless for communities like theirs. 

At Burnham’s campaign launch, he used the word ‘change’ 20 times – each time attached to a tangible: the economy, education, housing, transport, social care, and politics. Voters who have given up on the mainstream will be won back by delivery they can see and feel – bills that fall, buses that turn up, investment that arrives, streets that feel safer.

The answer to Burnham’s second challenge is his first challenge met: to govern well enough, and visibly enough, that politics feels worth believing in again.

Makerfield is the seat that makes that possible.

If Burnham can beat Reform on what it perceives as its home turf, overturning its victory of barely five weeks’ vintage, he will be proving that Labour can still be competitive – and can win – in parts of the country some believed lost for good. He will be proving that voters will give Labour a chance when presented with a candidate – and a potential leader – they trust understands them, and is on their side. 

The challenge will be to build on that win. For all of us, Labour and not, who wish for our politics not to be dominated by the populist-right, we should wish him well, and do all we can to ensure his success.