Syria’s New Rulers Blamed for Sectarian Massacre, Suggesting West Has Once Again Backed the Wrong Horse

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A detailed investigation into the murder of 1500 Alawites just over three months ago in Syria has concluded that the crimes were sanctioned by the country’s new Islamist rulers, raising huge doubts about their declared commitment to a new democratic system and shattering any hope that they will be held accountable for their crimes.
 
The investigation by Reuters also raises awkward questions about the West’s hurried decision to drop sanctions against Syria and to offer both trust and aid to those now accused of involvement in a heinous massacre.
 
To date, Syria’s self-appointed interim president, Ahmed Al Sharaa, has managed to sidestep responsibility for his own past actions as a member of an Al Qaeda affiliate – but his ability to unite Syria’s bewildering array of religious sects and cultural identities will have been seriously undermined by the latest revelations.
 
Western officials claim it is too late to withdraw support from Sharaa. As one European diplomat put it “there are no other candidates. We are stuck with Sharaa whether we like it or not”.

“We need to engage gradually and with caution to help Syria move in the right direction. We cannot afford to see the process collapse.”
 
For now, though, the process looks decidedly shaky.

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Veteran Turkish ambassador Erdem Ozan, who left the foreign office at the end of 2024, says Al-Sharaa governs under a transitional declaration that grants broad executive authority but offers little in the way of checks and balances.

This, he explains, creates a hybrid regime based on more functional control than on legal authority

“Syria’s path, “ says Ozan, an expert on Syria, “indicates a mix of authoritarian control and selective pluralism. The ongoing selective violence and limited engagement with minority communities weaken his claims of national dialogue, alienating non-Sunni groups. Formal institutions like the transitional cabinet and justice committees are in place but public trust remains lacking.”

“Sectarian violence, including over 1500 Alawite deaths, reveals an inability to restrain allied militias or deliver justice. His unilateral rise to the presidency and postponement of elections erode institutional trust. Failure to reconcile with Kurds, Druze and Alawites threatens national cohesion.”

After 24 years of Bashar Assad’s brutal regime, there were grand hopes for a period of truth and reconciliation.

But the report on the recent massacre highlights the fragility of the current situation.

Its conclusion that the killers’ chain of command led to the capital Damascus could well re-ignite a whole raft of bitter, factional disputes in a country with a bewildering array of sects, religions and nationalities.
 
Minorities, which once allied with the Assad regime to survive, now fear persecution or exclusion in a country that may well be heading towards an authoritarian theocracy.
 
Many fear that Syria is on a knife edge, with few good outcomes in sight.
 
“They are not building a new country – a melting pot for all citizens regardless of their religious or ethnic identity,” says Rayyan Maarouf, Chief Editor at Suwaida24.com, and member of the Druze community in southern Syria.

“They are pitting the Sunnis against the minorities who are turning against the new regime”.

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Maarouf, who had to flee Syria to the West during the civil war says: “Regardless of the international support given to Sharaa by the USA, and acceptance by Europe and the Arabs, we do not see a clear policy to build a state… we only see sheikhs and militant groups ruling us. No one knows where the country is heading”.

Al-Sharaa became the de facto ruler of Syria after his Islamist militant group Hayat-Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army reached the capital on Dec. 8, 2024. Bashar Assad quickly fled to Russia.
 
In the seven months since, he has consolidated his grip on power under the guise of a transitional government.
 
A constitutional declaration gave him sweeping executive authority for a five-year transition. He dominates the newly formed government structure in which HTS holds nine key ministries, including foreign affairs, defence and justice. There is no independent oversight to prevent abuse of power.
 
Despite promises of transparency, the new governing structure is full of cronies belonging to Sharaa’s inner circle, along with their relatives.

They exert control over every aspect of life, from legislative and military decision-making to indirect peace talks with Israel on the future of the occupied Golan Heights instead. The official state bureaucracy is nowhere to be seen.

Rumours are swirling across Syria that some of these figures are fronting for scores of private financiers, hurrying to invest in real estate, electricity, oil and other sectors. Corruption, in a country whose coffers were plundered by its last president, is beginning to draw the public attention.

Says a European diplomat in the region “Sharaa does not have the right people in the right places to implement [his declared] vision because of trust issues.”
 
Ozan, the former Turkish ambassador to Jordan, agrees: “Without wider participation or real accountability, Syria’s transition could freeze into a fragile autocracy. It will talk about reform but remain open to renewed unrest.”

The volatile transition may be less about democratic reforms, and more about institutionalising dominance of the HTS, which had been proscribed as a terrorist organisation by the UK, UN and US.

Saraya Ansar Al Sunnah, which left HTS because they could not see eye to eye with Sharaa’s new direction, were behind a recent attack on a Christian church in the heart of Damascus. Killing 24 members of the congregation.

Sharaa’s commitment to human rights, transparency, women rights and constitutional reform need to be matched by independent oversight.

“In short, Sharaa’s biggest internal challenge is fragmentation. Turning a battlefield into structure is difficult. Without a unified national framework, Syria risks becoming a state where power is scattered, governance is in consistent, and legitimacy remains weak,” concluded Ozan, the former Turkish envoy.

Despite so many worrying signs, Western governments are reluctant to change direction, preferring today’s disturbing picture to one that could look even worse tomorrow.

The UK and Europe which have normalized ties with the new Syrian regime and lifted sanctions, have paid scant attention to the report of the massacre in March.
 
UK foreign secretary David Lammy met with Sharaa in Damascus earlier this month and announced that Britain is formally restoring diplomatic ties with the country.
 
In May the EU contented itself with slapping sanctions on two people and three armed groups, who it says participated in the March attacks on the Alawite community.
 
“We are closely monitoring the transition, and sanctions can always be reversed if things go south”, said a European diplomat.
 
For once, there’s little else they can do.