‘Progressives Must Unite Against Nigel Farage and National Populism or Reform Will Win’

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What do this sequence of numbers represent and do they matter: 4, 5, 6, 9, 72,121 and 411? The politically eagle eyed amongst you would know that these are the seats for the main parties and blocks in Parliament.

Let’s go through the numbers to understand what if anything they mean and tell us. 411 is the number of Labour MPs. It’s a very big number in parliamentary terms. It gives Labour a whopping majority 165, which means one thing and one thing only, that Labour is going to be in office until the polls give it a good enough excuse to call the next election, or by summer 2029 they simply run out of room.

A big majority guarantees a party will stay in office but nothing else. The Conservatives had a big enough majority after 2019 and yet chaos ensued. They simply didn’t have a plan for the country or how to govern it. They became rebellious and focused on plots and plans about who was next up to pretend that they were in charge.

If this all feels familiar after one year of a Labour Government with almost double the majority of the Conservatives that’s because it’s more a crisis of the whole political system than it is the personalities who happen to be trying to run it.

Whether Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves, or Morgan McSweeney stay or not is now largely beside the point. Unless, and until, Labour develops a political analysis of the place of social democracy in the third decade of the 21st century, then changing the captain of the ship heading for the rocks is irrelevant – unless they drastically change direction.

The only difference will be that it won’t take a year for the incompetence of any new leader to be exposed, but like Liz Truss, it’s more likely to take months or even weeks.

121 is the Conservative seat total. Little needs to be said about the non-renewal of the Conservative brand under Kemi Badenoch. But like the existential crisis of social democracy, there is a crisis of centre right Christian style democracy the world over. The Conservative’s show no sign, no inclination, and no ability to even begin to solve it.

72 is a number of seats the Liberal Democrats hold. But honestly, despite some excellent new MPs in their ranks, has it made any difference to the country’s political dialogue that their numbers have increased so dramatically?

Of course, smaller parties can struggle in terms of media profile, but as we will see below, numbers aren’t everything. The Liberal Democrats are now a centre left Party representing a centre right electorate at a moment when post liberal sentiment is sharpening all the time.

The crisis of liberal democracy is as real as its social and Christian varieties. The vein hope of influence in a hung parliament is just that. What do the Liberal Democrats want influence to do and how?

Nine is the number of SNP representatives in parliament, down dramatically from their high points since 2015. Labour’s failings mean they could recover both in Holyrood next May and at the next General Election. But the goal of independence is as far away as ever.

Once again, it hardly matters if they have one MP or 100, why do they want independence, and how can it be enacted economically, legally and electorally? Without clear answers what are they doing?

Six, or maybe seven now, with Zarah Sultana, is the number of independent MPs. These are the early tremors that could shake the foundations of our party system. But the politics here are complex and contradictory. Trying to build a coherent project that contains inherent big cultural differences in terms of traditionalism versus uber-identity liberalism is going to be tough if not impossible.

Five is the number of Reform MPs and proves that size isn’t everything. Here is the real Opposition to the Government, obviously not because they occupy vast stretches of the Commons green benches but because they have an argument and a sentiment that resonates powerfully with a big and growing section of the population.

In this they don’t just oppose Labour, they lead Labour just as they lead the Conservatives, who both offer Reform-lite versions of their nativism and national populism.

Reform is a testament to a politics of ambitious and determination. Of course, it’s as fragile as Nigel Farage, but they’re scaling, and professional ,at speed. Reform are currently odds on to win the most seats at the next election and a unite the right deal with the Conservatives would make Farage Prime Minister. Just read that last sentence again.

And finally, four is the number of Green MPs. These are all good people but sadly less than the sum of the parts of one Caroline Lucas. Whether Zack Polanski can win the leadership race and put a rocket under the party with his brand of eco-populism remains to be seen.

He is up against the joint ticket of two MPs, Adrian Ramsey and Ellie Chowns representing two small conservative and rural seats.

The Greens have both an identity crisis and now face direct competition from whatever the independent group of MPs around Jeremy Corbyn are going to do.

As the poly crisis, the fragmentation and the ineptitude of our political system and parties mount – there will only be chaos. In this context it’s immaterial whether Reform have a coherent programme or not – they will be the benefactors.

Unless, and until, progressives can unite and form a coherent and systematic purpose, policy and political response to national populism, then none of these numbers matter, Farage will win.