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29 May will mark the 600th day since the brutal attacks by the terrorist organisation, Hamas, on Israel on 7 October 2023, which killed over 1,200 people, including peace activists, men, women and children living in kibbutzes along the Israeli-Gaza border, and youngsters attending a music festival.
29 May will mark the 600th day in captivity for the last twenty or so Israeli hostages still believed to be alive in Gaza, the 600th day of anguish for their friends and families, and the 600th day of trauma for all those caught up in or affected by the 7 October attacks, including many Jews around the world, for whom the attacks brought back horrific memories of the Holocaust, or who have faced anti-semitic abuse since then.
29 May will also mark the 600th day since Israel’s dreadful retribution on Gaza began – first with a bombing campaign, six days later with the introduction of ground troops, and twenty days later with a full-scale invasion. This has resulted in the deaths of over 53,000 Palestinians, according to the latest Gaza Health Ministry figures, most of them civilians, including thousands of young children. Tens of thousands more Palestinians are missing, presumed dead under the rubble, which is all that is left of most buildings in Gaza. The remaining population has been displaced multiple times, and is facing acute food insecurity verging on famine, following a months-long blockade by Israel of all food supplies into the territory. Gaza’s infrastructure is destroyed.
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The period since 7 October has also been marked by attacks on Israel from Iran, and Iranian-backed proxies Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen, and devastating Israeli responses.
Amidst all this death and destruction, what has been achieved?
On Hamas’ side, the 7 October attack appears to have been a disastrous miscalculation which has brought nothing but misery and death on the Palestinians, in the West Bank as well as Gaza, and ensured that it will never again be allowed to establish formal rule over Gaza.
On the Israeli side, they can take comfort from the death of many prominent Hamas leaders, including Yahya Sinwar, who orchestrated the vile attacks, political leader Ismael Haniyah, and former military commander, Mohammed Deif; the weakening of Hizbollah in Lebanon, and the death of many of its commanders, including leader Hassan Nasrallah; and the destruction of much of Iran’s military capability. 147 of the 251 hostages have been freed, either through negotiated exchanges, rescue missions, or in one case last week, the unilateral release by Hamas of an Israeli-American hostage.
But Israel’s overall goals – the release of all the hostages, and the complete elimination of Hamas – have not been achieved, while its international reputation has plummeted due to its harsh conduct of the war, which many allege has involved war crimes, such as launching disproportionate attacks, firing on aid convoys, bombing schools and hospitals, and blockading food and medical supplies into the territory. Prospects for a grand reconciliation between Israel, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states are on indefinite hold.
Many international analysts have decried Israel for appearing to have no long-term strategy. Some critics believe Netanyahu is motivated to prolong the war for personal reasons, in order to delay elections and stay on in power. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis have protested against Netanyahu, calling for him to negotiate a ceasefire in return for the release of the remaining hostages.
None of this appears to have forced a rethink, on either side.
Hamas appears intent on holding on to its last hostages, as their best bargaining chip with Israel, in the hope of achieving a permanent ceasefire and allowing the group to rebuild and survive longer term. This remains an unacceptable outcome for Israel, which appears instead to have decided to double down on its original strategy of trying to force a complete surrender by Hamas through military means.
Thus, on 18th March, Israel shattered an eight-week ceasefire by launching new air attacks in Gaza, and on 18th May, announced a major expansion of ground operations, codenamed “Chariots of Gideon.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu later declared his country’s forces would take control of the entire Gaza strip. An IDF spokesman said the plan was to “increase control over the Gaza strip by dividing the territory and moving the population” to make way for the military operations. On 19th May, the Israeli military ordered Gaza’s second largest city, Khan Younis, and neighbouring areas to be evacuated.
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Netanyahu also announced that Israel would allow “a basic quantity of food to be brought in” to Gaza, following intense pressure from Israel’s “closest friends in the world”, including supporters of Israel in the US Senate. This resulted in a meager five trucks carrying baby food and other desperately needed supplies entering the territory on 19th May. The UN dismissed this as a drop in the ocean.
Israel’s latest actions prompted condemnation from some of Israel’s formerly closest international partners. In a joint statement, France, the UK and Canada declared that they “strongly” opposed the expansion of Israel’s military operations in Gaza”, and described the level of human suffering in Gaza as “intolerable”, the Israeli Government’s denial of humanitarian assistance as “unacceptable”, and its actions as a potential breach of International Humanitarian Law. They warned of unspecified further actions if Israel did not stop its offensive and lift restrictions on humanitarian aid, and also threatened to impose targeted sanctions if Israel continued expanding settlements in the occupied West Bank.
The three countries also reiterated their support for a two-state solution, as “the only way to bring long-lasting peace and security that both Israelis and Palestinians deserve, and ensure long-term stability in the region” and backed the ongoing efforts to secure a ceasefire being led by the United States, Qatar and Egypt.
On 20 May the British government suspended free trade talks with Israel, and announced sanctions on three individuals and four companies whom British Foreign secretary David Lammy accused of “heinous abuses of human rights.”
But, until the fundamental calculations of either Israel or Hamas change, there seems little prospect for peace efforts to be successful. Hamas appears intent on fighting for its survival. Israel appears intent on fighting for its destruction.
Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani described Israel’s actions as “a serious blow” to peace negotiations. He also noted a “fundamental gap” between the warring sides. “One side wants a step-by-step deal leading to a broader resolution. The other just wants a one-time deal to end the war and free hostages.” He warned that unless this gap is bridged, peace remains out of reach, with the ongoing military escalation only deepening the divide.
There is nothing to suggest that Israel’s latest military offensive will be any more successful in defeating Hamas. It might attain greater physical control over Gaza, but not permanent security.
Israel may be hoping to pile so much pressure on the civilian population of Gaza that they rise up against Hamas. No doubt, many Gazans thoroughly despise Hamas. Yet, despite all their suffering, there is no evidence that they have either sufficient will, let alone the capability, to drive the organisation out.
Alternatively, Israel, encouraged by US President Donald Trump’s toying with the idea of relocating the entire population of Gaza, may be hoping that the images of starving, desperate Palestinians may finally be enough to force Egypt and other Arab countries to open their borders and let them in. Yet, so far, no Arab country wants to be party to any such forced displacement, or to deal with the consequences of trying to assimilate so many new arrivals.
On the other hand, Hamas may be hoping that the worse the images from Gaza get, the more the international community will put pressure on Israel to stop its conflict, perhaps suspending all arms sales, or imposing tougher sanctions. The joint statement by the UK, France, and Canada, though well-grounded in international law, and thoroughly merited on a humanitarian basis, may unfortunately play precisely into that kind of calculation.
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Israel has in any case responded defiantly to the measures announced by the UK so far. For many Israelis, 7 October marked the death knell for any two-state solution.
Hamas may also hope that Donald Trump’s friendship with Gulf potentates, reflected in his recent tour of the region, where he was feted by Arab leaders, alongside his decision not to visit Israel, amidst reported frustration with Netanyahu’s intransigence, will translate into more sympathy towards the Palestinians, and greater US pressure on Israel.
But this is a foolish notion. It is unlikely that Western democracies will ever fully abandon Israel – partly due to lingering guilt over the Holocaust, and partly due to genuine revulsion at the 7 October atrocities.
One very senior Western intelligence official privately told me recently that, while he agreed some Israeli actions went too far, he ultimately backed their efforts to destroy Hamas, or force Palestinians to oust them. He had watched the videos of the 7 October attacks, and said they reflected a degree of depravity beyond description.
Even the unpredictable Donald Trump cannot sway deeply embedded support for Israel in the US. Given his notorious lack of interest in the time-consuming and painstaking process of substantive peace negotiations, as reflected in his impatient stance towards Russia and Ukraine, he is more likely to declare his irritation with both sides and wash his hands of any further US involvement.
Perhaps, some new temporary ceasefire will be arranged through current US, Qatari and Egyptian efforts, though this seems unlikely right now. Perhaps Israeli pressure on Hamas will result in the release of a few more hostages, in return for Palestinian detainees from Israeli prisons. Perhaps, in response to international criticism, Israel will grudgingly allow more humanitarian aid in.
But, a permanent resolution, either to the immediate Israel-Gaza fight, or the wider Israeli Palestinian conflict, seems as far off as ever.
More likely, hardliners in Israel and Hamas will dig in, the grim conflict will continue, the death toll will mount, and the international community will wring its hands fruitlessly. All the while, the human beings at the very heart of this tragedy, the Israeli hostages, their families, and the civilians in Gaza will continue to pay the highest price.