‘Europe and Canada Must Forget Trump and Form a Coalition of the Willing to Defend Ukraine’

Instead of worrying about Donald Trump, Europeans and Canadians should follow the lead of Donald Tusk. When the going gets tough, the tough get going. While many are anxiously waiting to see what Trump will do, Poland’s Prime Minister has followed expert advice and called for a coalition of willing states to secure Ukraine and deter further Russian aggression. 

It’s not hard to imagine such a coalition, pioneered by the states that have been clearest about the Russian threat and the need to secure Ukraine to forge a stable Euro-Atlantic security order. Poland could be joined by the Baltic states, Nordic Countries, the UK, France, Canada and the Netherlands. The UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force could be extended to form a vanguard, but ultimately the format matters less than the actions they take. By changing policy and facts on the ground, the coalition would spur others to join them and embrace Europeans’ and Canadians’ power to defend ourselves and our interests, regardless of what the US does.

Here, we propose five things that a European-Canadian coalition of the willing should – and can – do: 

1. Arm Ukraine to Win: The coalition can get Ukraine what it needs to win: from their own stocks, procurement on the open market as well as, most cost effectively, by technology transfer to and investment in Ukraine’s own defence industry. The coalition’s focus should be on war-winning capabilities including long-range precision strike (with no restrictions on targeting), electronic warfare, command and control, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities, as well as emerging defence technologies that offset traditional Russian advantages, and core basics like artillery, 155mm ammunition, anti-air, anti-ship and anti-tank systems and munitions.

2. Seize ALL the frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s victory: Confiscating frozen Russian assets is economically feasible, legal under the international principle of countermeasures – and would establish a financial deterrent to future aggression. The $300 billion of frozen assets is four times US military aid to Ukraine since 2022 and roughly 75% of total Western assistance to date. Seizing the full amount would be the best way to get Ukraine the money it needs to defend itself and seriously degrade Russian morale. Canada has ready legislation and most of these frozen assets are in Europe. The coalition states should seize those in their jurisdiction without delay, to set a clear precedent that other NATO allies can follow. 

3. Extend air defence over Western Ukraine and use it to cover coalition troops on the ground: Air defence assets based in coalition countries or sent to states bordering Ukraine can provide a shield over Western Ukraine and take some of the pressure off Ukrainian air defence assets. Russian missiles and drones are flying toward our borders and we can’t take chances. Coalition states could then use this shield to put their own troops on the ground, as proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron, to help train Ukrainian forces, provide logistical and de-mining support and conduct other tasks that would demonstrate our commitment to Ukraine’s victory and security.

4. Provide real security guarantees, including mutual defence, to shepherd Ukraine into NATO: Much as Sweden and Finland needed guarantees from strong partners while they waited for their NATO membership to be concluded, so too does Ukraine. The coalition can commit, now, to mutual defence with Ukraine in the intervening period after the end of the current hostilities. It can use that time to help drive interoperability and coordination, accelerating Ukraine’s path into the alliance, which it would strengthen. An unambiguous coalition commitment, backed up by growing capabilities, would deter future Russian attacks on Ukraine – and ourselves.

5. Show we can stand up for ourselves: The coalition can commit to each spend at least three per cent of GDP on defence annually, and to joint procurement of the critical enablers that Europe and Canada lack, including through common borrowing. But the war, and our credibility, must be won on other fronts too. Europeans’ and Canadians’ economic advantage over Russia must be leveraged and strategically targeted to be meaningful. The coalition should move to tighten – and enforce – sanctions, but also work to defeat Russia economically, turning the screws to cripple its creaking war machine. China must be shown that its support for Russia’s war is unacceptable and that it cannot buy us off. 

Whatever the final composition of the Trump administration, and whatever policies or predilections it pursues, a coalition of willing states can set the Euro-Atlantic area on a more secure path. By taking the steps outlined here, Europeans and Canadians would show how we can pull our weight in NATO while simultaneously insuring against any decrease in US capability commitment in Europe.

We can show how to be good allies as the US pivots to keep China in check, and demonstrate that deterring China in Taiwan begins with deterring Russia across Europe and defeating it in Ukraine. 

Time is of the essence and so we, the signatories of this letter, urge European states and Canada to embrace their power, quickly form a coalition of the willing and, together, take these steps –  for Ukraine’s security and our own.

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Signatories

Toomas Hendrik Ilves, President of Estonia (2006-2016); Professor, Tartu University

Egils Levits, President of Latvia (2019-2023), European Court of Justice (2004-2019)

The Rt. Hon Sir Ben Wallace, fmr Secretary of State for Defence of the United Kingdom

The Rt. Hon. Sir David Lidington, fmr. UK Minister of State for Europe and Deputy to the Prime Minister. Currently Chair of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

Kajsa Ollongren, former Minister of Defence of the Netherlands

Dr Artis Pabriks, fmr. Foreign and Defence Minister of Latvia

Hon. Chris Alexander PC, former Minister for Citizenship and Immigration, Parliamentary Secretary for National Defence and Canadian Ambassador to Afghanistan

Lt.Gen (retd.) Ben Hodges, fmr. Commander US Army Europe

Air Marshal (retd.) Greg Bagwell, Royal Air Force

Air Marshal (retd.) Edward Stringer, Royal Air Force

Maj. Gen. (retd.) Mick Ryan AM, fmr. Commandant, Australian Defence College

Margaret Atwood, Writer

Prof. Eliot Cohen, former Counsellor of the Department of State (USA, 2007-2009)

Dr. Anna Wieslander, Director for Northern Europe, Atlantic Council & Chair of the Board, ISDP

Garry Kasparov, Founder of the Renew Democracy Initiative and fmr World Chess Champion

Dr Thomas Enders, President, German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), Berlin

François Heisbourg, Special Advisor, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, Paris

Prof. Phillips O’Brien, University of St. Andrews

Lt.Col (retd.) Dr Alexander Vindman, fmr US Army and National Security Council 

Prof. Katarzyna Pisarska, Chair of the Warsaw Security Forum & the Pulaski Foundation

Prof. Nathalie Tocci, Director, Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), fmr special advisor to EU HRVP

Żygimantas Pavilionis MP, Deputy Speaker of the Lithuanian Parliament, and Lithuanian Ambassador to the US (2010-15)

Marko Mihkelson MP, Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Estonian Parliament

Prof. Stephen Gethins MP, University of St Andrews and UK House of Commons

Mr Alex Vanopslagh MP, Chair of the Liberal Alliance Party, Denmark