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The filtered autumn light glimmers on the massive slag heaps of Donbas, which seem to rise from the unknown, valley by valley.
To avoid being spotted by drones, Philippe, 31, a soldier from the 68th Brigade, floors the accelerator of his jeep. After crossing the remains of the Pokrovsk bridge, destroyed by Russian forces nearly a month ago, he speeds through fields of withered sunflowers.
Philippe heads toward the road to Selydove, where the fiercest fighting for the defence of Pokrovsk, has taken place over the past few weeks. In the opposite direction, dozens of cars and trucks evacuate the last civilians from the city.
Next to him, Oleksandr, 31, points to a cloud of black smoke. “That’s the Selydove front,” he shouts, trying to drown out the sound of the engine. Smoke columns rise on both sides of the road, merging with the sky.
Since the start of summer, Russian forces, fully engaged in their offensive in the Donbas, have made significant progress, bringing their troops within 10kms of Pokrovsk, one of the Ukrainian army’s logistical hubs in the Donbas.
After more than two years of assault, Russian forces managed to capture the fortress of Vuhledar in early October, located southeast of Pokrovsk, which had been protecting the city’s flanks.
Facing an increasingly critical situation, the men of the 68th Brigade were called back here a few weeks earlier to halt the Russian advance.
A Stabilised Front, but for how Long?
Around an old Soviet cannon, a dozen Ukrainian soldiers chat and laugh. Their commander, Taras explains, “We mostly do counter-battery fire”, adding: “Depending on the day, we fire between 20 and 30 shells.”
The 31-year-old finds it hard to predict how long the Ukrainian army will be able to hold off the Russian advance. “All I can tell you is that the situation has been stable for the past few weeks, and we still have a chance to save Pokrovsk.”
The calm conversation is interrupted by a phone call. Taras answers curtly, then briskly heads toward the artillery piece. “Positions!” he shouts. Within seconds, the soldiers of the 68th Brigade, in a perfectly synchronised manoeuvre, ready the artillery piece.
“Armata (armed)!” shouts one soldier. “Ostril (fire)!” responds Taras. As soon as the word is spoken, an explosion shakes the ground, and the cannon appears to be engulfed in flames.
After the shot, they all dive into the trench. “We’re hiding from Russian counter-battery fire,” explains Oleksandr.
“We have to wait five minutes. If the Russians don’t respond within that time, it means they haven’t located us.”
For the first minute, everyone is silent. “It takes 50 seconds for a shell fired from the Russian side to reach its target.”
In the second minute, Philippe lights a cigarette. Once the time passes, a soldier cracks a joke. Everyone bursts into laughter and brushing off the dust clinging to them, they climb back to the surface. “The Russians won’t respond this time,” Oleksandr says with a wink.
US Presidential Elections – ‘I Don’t Have Time to Follow the News’
The conversation quickly shifts to the upcoming US elections. In just a few weeks, Americans will have to choose between Kamala Harris, who, like President Joe Biden, wants to continue supporting Ukraine, and Donald Trump, who has repeatedly stated he would stop all aid to Kyiv.
On October 11, US House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican and strong supporter of Trump, stated that he no longer has “an appetite for further Ukraine funding” and expressed hope that a potential November electoral victory for Trump would lead to a swift end to the war.
While this aid seems essential for the continuation of Ukraine’s defence, the soldiers of the 68th Brigade don’t seem too worried.
Vitalii, a 50-year-old soldier attached to the 15th Brigade, is more interested in the evolution of American politics.
“Of course, we want Kamala to win. But we also know that foreign policy isn’t decided only by the president. Congress is involved too. So even if Trump is elected, we know American aid will have to go through Congress, and many Republicans understand that it’s crucial for the credibility of the United States to support Ukraine.”
Dmytro, a former lawyer from Zaporizhia, agrees with Vitalii and believes that the US elections won’t decide everything. “There’s Congress in the US, and also the EU and the UK, which provide more than half of the aid.”
More importantly, Dmytro thinks the war is likely to drag on because Putin can’t be satisfied with what he’s taken. “Trump says he’ll stop the war in 24 hours, but Putin will keep attacking,” he insists. “He wants to take the entire Donbas, which he’s struggling to do, and on our side, we can’t accept giving it up to Russia.
However, Dmytro admits that without US aid, they wouldn’t be able to retake the lost territories, and he hopes the EU will continue supporting Ukraine to the same extent. He adds, “Either way, with or without help, we’ll fight the Russians with stones and sticks if we have to.”
With a sly smile, Vitalii, who’s from Uzhhorod on the Hungarian border, explains that, in his view, politicians in Ukraine and around the world have a habit of promising everything to their voters.
“Once they’re elected, they do whatever they want,” he says with a laugh. But more seriously, Vitalii admits that since the Republican-led blockade in Congress in 2023 and the shell crisis, Ukrainians no longer plan the war based on the aid received from the Americans.
“The aid was essential at the beginning of the war. Thanks to HIMARS and Javelins, we pushed the Russians back. But that time has passed. Now what matters are the drones we produce, the shells provided by the European Union, and the quality of our soldiers. The rest, whether it’s F-16s or ATACMS, is welcome, but we can’t even strike deep into Russia anyway,” he finishes with a bitter laugh.
Despite his words, Vitalii knows the American elections will be a crucial turning point in the war. Calmly leaning against a T-90 tank, Vitalii, who has been fighting since 2014, believes that negotiations will take place after the US elections, regardless of the outcome. “We’ll see what comes of it. Maybe the war will end in six months. If not, we will keep on fighting.”
Winter is Coming – but Ukrainian Forces are Better Prepared
Like the 68th Brigade, the men of the 15th Brigade, positioned on the same part of the front, were also transferred a few weeks ago to block the Russian advance. Mikhaïl commands a tank unit. Originally from Lviv in western Ukraine, the 47-year-old believes that Kyiv will be able to hold the front for a few more months.
“It all depends on the Russian advance and our ability to stop them. If we hold Selydove until the rainy season, we can hold Pokrovsk through the winter.”
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Known as the Rasputitsa, the rainy season, usually between mid-October and early November, dictates the pace of the war in Ukraine. Within days, a frontline can turn into a swamp, making the movement of essential vehicles nearly impossible for ongoing operations. One must then wait for the cracked mud to freeze at the start of winter to launch new offensives.
But Mikhaïl seems confident. He explains that their units are better prepared for winter this year and have much more ammunition than they did a few months ago. After facing acute ammunition shortages for most of 2023, Ukrainian forces have in recent months secured enough supplies to defend themselves.
This improvement is largely thanks to the initiative of Czech President Petr Pavel, who managed to mobilise nearly a million shells from allies worldwide.
Still, if Russian forces have slowed their advance on Pokrovsk, Mikhaïl explains it’s mainly to level the front and expand around the city. “They were too deep and were jeopardising their supply line,” he says.
Oleksandr of the 68th Brigade adds. “Every village results in street fighting and significant losses for the Russians. So they try to bypass and suffocate them. It’s more effective for them that way.”
Oleksandr wants to believe they can hold out and despite the difficulties faced by the Ukrainian army, he thinks they will be able to keep Pokrovsk.
Yet despite the optimistic talk, the return journey betrays the Russian advance. Every 5-10kms along the road from Pokrovsk to Kramatorsk, passing through Dobropillia, massive excavators dig new trenches, and dragon’s teeth, stacked on large dump trucks, wait to be deployed.
With a worried look, Philippe gazes at the horizon. He knows it: The Russians are advancing.