Israel-Gaza Ceasefire Talks Limp on as Regional War Looms Ahead of First Anniversary of Hamas Conflict

The Gaza ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas are on life support with gaps remaining despite the intensive ongoing mediation efforts in Cairo – pointing to the strong possibility of the outbreak of a regional war.

Over the weekend, Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets at northern Israel while the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) bombed a large number of Lebanese villages in the south of the country.

This was Hezbollah’s initial response, as promised, to Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Fuad Shakar in Beirut several weeks ago with the Lebanese resistance group promising more retaliation. Iran, meanwhile, has vowed to respond to Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran at the end of July.

However, both Hezbollah and Iran have said that tensions in the region would drop dramatically on Israel’s northern border if a Gaza ceasefire was agreed. Both are also supposedly against a regional war, which is likely, according to both Palestinian and Israeli analysts and politicians.

“We are at critical moment and the chances of a regional war breaking out are 50-50. It all depends on the which faction of the US administration holds sway and whether they put sufficient pressure on Israel,” Mustafa Barghouti, the leader of the Palestinian National Initiative political party, told Byline Times.

Yohanan Tzoreff an analyst with the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv was even less optimistic of an agreement being reached ahead of the anniversary of Hamas’ 7 October 2023 attack that set in motion a conflict that has claimed over 41,000 lives.

“I think the chances of a ceasefire are even lower than 50%. There is still a big gap between both sides so I think we need more time to see if this will change and if there is any progress in the negotiations,” Tzoreff, who was also involved in the Oslo Peace Accords negotiations in 1993, told Byline Times.

The Israeli Broadcasting Corporation reported that the heads of the Israeli security services (including the heads of Mossad, David Barnea, and domestic intelligence agency the Shin Bet, Ronen Bar) returned from Cairo and informed the political level in Tel Aviv that the chances of reaching a prisoner exchange deal with Hamas are “not high”.

Contrary to some media reports, the main sticking points between Israel and Hamas have been new conditions that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu added to an agreement that Hamas accepted on 2 July, according to sources on both sides.

Netanyahu is insisting on the IDF remaining on the Philadelphia corridor that runs along the Egypt-Gaza border. A demand that both Hamas and Egypt reject with the latter stating that would compromise the peace agreement signed with Israel in 1979.

Israeli military officials have said that this problem could be overcome with the installation of sophisticated military sensors along the border.

The Israeli premier also wants to maintain control of the Netzarim corridor which divides northern Gaza from southern Gaza. Again, Israeli military officials said that if necessary the Israeli military could quickly redeploy there.

The issue of the number of Israeli hostages to be released, as well as the identities of the Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange, is another contentious issue. 

However, the most divisive point is that Hamas demands a final end to the war while Israel wants a temporary ceasefire with critics arguing that Netanyahu wants as many hostages released as possible and then the chance to continue the war until his goal of the complete annihilation of Hamas is achieved, a goal that Israeli and international analysts say is impossible.

Tzoreff points to problems in Israel’s governing coalition, as a “big problem” for Netanyahu, saying the PM fears the “collapse of his political coalition due to extreme hardliners within his government who are not ready for any compromise”.

“They are very radical and Netanyahu depends on them to keep his government alive,” Tzoreff explained.

The Israeli analyst was referring to hardline Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir who have both threatened to leave the coalition if a ceasefire deal is reached while both are also pushing for a full-on war with Lebanon.

While the negotiations have inched forward, at an excruciating pace, the Israeli negotiators complained of Netanyahu’s intransigence and having to leave talks every few minutes to get his approval, while also accusing him of not wanting a deal. 

Israel Defence Minister Yoav Gallant also demanded that all details discussed on any potential ceasefire be shared with the entire cabinet because he feared any unilateral decisions could sabotage a possible ceasefire.

So angry are the relatives of those Israelis held hostage in the Gaza tunnels that they – alongside seven Kibbutzes that were affected by Hamas’ 7 October attacks – are refusing to attend the Israeli government’s upcoming commemoration ceremony of the attack.

Israelis protesting against what they say is Netanyahu’s intransigence have held placards calling on Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar to “have mercy on the Gaza hostages because Netanyahu won’t”. An Israeli analyst, in Israel’s left leaning daily ‘Haaretz’ also said there were calls for the Israeli military to lay down the law with the government and even some fantasising about a military coup.

As to any hopes of a ceasefire breakthrough Barghouti said that depended on Washington putting real pressure on the Israelis. The forthcoming US elections could provide motivation, he said.

“Problematically, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken seems more concerned about serving Netanyahu than his government,” he added.

The US push for a ceasefire and hostage-release agreement to be finalised was prompted by the Biden administration’s political considerations, two senior Israeli officials involved in the talks said.

 Tzoreff said it was important that the negotiators not give up and continue with the talks but he also called for pressure on Hamas.

“We have a political problem in Israel but maybe more political pressure from the Americans on Hamas will also help our government to be ready to make more compromises,” said Tzoreff.

Hamas seems more concerned with its own political power than the suffering of Gazans, some critics argue.

Tzoreff added that one factor that could force Hamas to also be more flexible was “that (Hassan) Nasrallah had made it very clear that Hezbollah was not interested in a full-blown regional war and would not give Hamas the full support it wanted.”

Meanwhile, the Israeli military has warned of the strong possibility of an impending uprising in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, and the spillover of this reaching Israeli cities.

This followed a recent attempted suicide bombing in Tel Aviv where a Palestinian from Nablus, in the northern West Bank, accidentally blew himself up after the explosives in his backpack detonated prematurely as he made his way towards his target.

Both Islamic Jihad and Hamas have vowed to renew suicide bombings within Israel. This is partly a result of a lack of a political horizon, economic privation in the territory due to Israel’s withholding of Palestinian tax money, banning Palestinian labourers from working in Israel and the IDF’s deadly daily attacks on the West Bank.

Should the West Bank explode, as predicted by many and the ceasefire deal fail, thereby resulting in further Hezbollah attacks and a possible full-scale Israeli attack on Lebanon, then the region is in for much more carnage and bloodshed with many players, regional and international, drawn in.