Subscriptions
Read our Monthly Magazine
And support our mission to provide fearless stories about and outside the media system
Against the backdrop of the October 7 attacks by the Hamas terrorist organisation, Israel became embroiled in its largest invasion of Gaza and overall biggest regional conflict against multiple adversaries not seen since the Yom Kippur War.
The fighting in Gaza is intense, with several hundred IDF casualties and half of Hamas’ battalions incapacitated, according to reports at the end of May, along with the deaths of more than 36,000 Palestinian civilians.
Hamas, an organisation armed and funded by the Mullahs of the Islamic Republic, is also supported by a major Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) affiliate, Hezbollah—the most powerful of all Iran’s proxies. The ongoing fighting between Israel and Hezbollah is raising concerns as both belligerents represent the strongest powers in the region that could make the Middle East explode.
Northern Front
Immediately after the October 7 attacks and Israel’s declaration of war against Hamas, Hezbollah intervened to supplement Hamas, which the Lebanese militant group is allied with.
For the past seven months, Israel and Hezbollah have resorted to low-level fighting with tit-for-tat strikes on one another akin to fighting that has taken place from Syria. Israel has killed numerous commanders of Hezbollah, including those belonging to the elite Radwan unit.
Strikes have also occurred against Hamas’ Lebanese branch throughout the winter and the spring as the Gazan militant group has expanded cells in not only the West Bank but also Southern Lebanon, which Hezbollah firmly controls.
Hezbollah’s goal initially was to draw and distract Israeli units to their Southern Lebanese border to give Hamas breathing room, but with Hamas nearly depleted and most of Gaza cleared, the Shia militia has now resorted to a more effective yet dangerous strategy.
Growing Hostilities
Knowing their anti-tank, drone, and missile attacks have not drawn IDF attention away from Hamas, Hezbollah, in coordination with the IRGC, is leading a campaign to displace Israeli citizens from the north permanently.
Estimates suggest 60,000 to 80,000 Israeli civilians have been displaced from Northern Israel, and the number could rise as Hezbollah’s missile attacks have started major wildfires in the more vegetative north. Simultaneously, over 95,000 Lebanese civilians are also displaced by the fighting.
The displacement of Israelis is a propaganda victory for the Islamic Republic’s ‘axis of resistance’ as Hezbollah has forced Israeli civilians to flee their homes in the north, which is also an aim of Hamas and the IRGC. Due to increased attacks by the militant group, Israel is stepping up operations, which include deep raids on regions in Lebanon that have rarely been targeted, such as Hermel.
Israel Inches Closer to All-Out Regional War as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Fights for Political Survival
‘Netanyahu is really the biggest danger to the state of Israel’
In mid-June, Israel targeted Taleb Abdullah, the most senior official in Hezbollah thus far. In return, Hezbollah struck several IDF outposts, including the Druze town of Hurfeish, that killed one soldier and wounded nearly a dozen.
Both Hezbollah and the IDF are resorting to igniting fires, with the former forcing civilians to flee and the latter using trebuchets to reinforce the border from potential infiltrations, as seen in 2006.
In response to growing tensions with the Shiite militia, Israel’s operations room approved of contingency plans to invade Lebanon and push Hezbollah back beyond the Litani River. It can be assessed that the goal of the IDF operational plans would be to create a demilitarised zone (buffer) where Hezbollah’s anti-tank missiles and mortars would have trouble with accuracy.
Hezbollah’s Geographic Advantage
Hezbollah currently has a contingency in case of an Israeli invasion, which is rigid terrain. In the 2006 War, Israel’s vaunted Merkava tanks faced difficulties in the Lebanese topography, and the IDF faced heavy armour losses.
Using geography to their advantage, Hezbollah, then only having 1,000-2,000 militiamen, was able to fight Israel to a status quo antebellum after a UN-led ceasefire occurred after 30 days.
The war only made the paramilitary organisation popular in the region due to being the only force that fought Israel to near equal terms both in 2006 and during the two-decade