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I spent 12 years working at the White House complex, between 1996 and 2008, and although I was a non-political civil servant, I was considerably enlightened by witnessing three presidential election campaigns from the inside.
In 2004, I was on the road for more than 200 days performing duties for the Technical Security Division of the US Secret Service, most of it in advance of, or in the motorcade behind, George W. Bush, as he successfully mounted a re-election campaign. I learned a lot from standing backstage or sitting in the van. Although that was two decades ago, some of my logistical and operational observations still might be of use to Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign.
The oddities of the Electoral College now drive some of the logistics. It is ‘winner take all’ in 48 of the 50 US states. Time is scarce. Harris should spend her time, budget, and travel resources where it matters.
There are at least 10 states, and probably more, where it is literally not worth chasing a single vote with campaign appearances. Remember, that then Vice President Richard Nixon spent a valuable weekend before the 1960 campaign in Alaska, with its paltry three electoral votes that were likely already in his pocket (he lost by 51 electoral votes to John F. Kennedy).
While it is disparaging to refer to the vast hinterland of the USA as ‘flyover America’, the logistics of mounting campaign efforts in rural areas are costly. Venues are often an hour or more drive from the relevant airport, security and event staff get worn out (I remember a four-hour drive through Minnesota and Iowa for a 30-minute Bush visit), and the further you get into GOP hinterland, you run the risk of frankly unqualified local activists making odd decisions.
A variant of the same advice applies even in the valid battleground states in which every vote counts. Having a number of events in a day spreads the staff and security effort thin, and there will be a lot of moving parts and staff leapfrogging. I recall one day in the Florida panhandle in 2004 with something like 29 stages of motorcade movement. The time walking to and from a limousine, and the time in transit, is campaigning time that is frittered away. Friction and fatigue lead to mistakes. The Trump campaign will capitalise on those mistakes. A few simpler, bigger events provide less scope for such mistakes.
Harris should also consider indoor events versus outdoor ones. Smaller can be better. It is far better for media comments such as ‘the event in Cincinnati was sold out and had lots of people queuing who could not get in’ than ‘the event in Kansas City only filled half of the county fairground’. I would not give scope for the glass half-full versus half-empty argument. Have a smaller glass and overflow.
In a hot summer season, indoor events are more physically pleasant. They are kinder to the senior citizens. The vote of older people is important and retirees who do not have a job to go to may end up being over-represented in campaign appearance audiences.
Harris will no doubt find everything she can in the Trump campaign’s Project 2025 manifesto that will make life harder for older people. This may just give her enough votes in battleground states that are retirement destinations, such as North Carolina and Arizona.
Security and violence have already been an issue in this campaign. Wearing out the Secret Service and campaign staff will result in security glitches and poor operational and logistical decisions. As we have seen with the Trump assassination attempt, errors and mistakes can become political by default.
Indoor events are easier to secure than outdoor events, in this day and age of the open carrying of firearms. There really will be people who want to kill the candidates and so the opinion of security teams should be solicited and their advice heeded.
One aspect of security that splashes out into voter behaviour is local disruption. Big, complicated multi-stop trips in a metropolitan area for a sitting Vice President cause a great deal of travel disruption for local residents. It can and does ruin many a commuter’s day. I’ve seen a city so snarled up for an entire day that I wondered if it cost more votes than the events earned. I advise the campaign staff to consider the adverse impact on local voters.
There are some inherent advantages to an incumbent candidate, but those advantages are greater for a President than a Vice President. However, some of those advantages can be loaned to a VP by an accommodating President.
President Joe Biden should lend the use of one of the large VC-25 (747-based) planes, normally used as Air Force One, to Harris for the campaign. Part of campaigning for the presidency is convincing the electorate that you are, in fact, ‘presidential’ in stature. Getting as many of the visual trappings of office to appear along with you is part of that. There is no bigger visual cudgel than Air Force One, even if it is, technically for a day, Air Force Two.
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Use of a highly visible icon as a backdrop leads to another bit of advice. One exception to my outdoor venue rule is airport events. You can do a lot of them with far less footprint and attrition of your precious time. Fly in, make your remarks right there, to a nice crowd assembled for the visit, with the lovely blue aircraft in the back, and fly out. Airports already have good security perimeters. You can adjust the rope barriers so that the crowd already looks as if it is full capacity, and there’s a lot less logistics, security hassle, and disruption compared to jumping into a car and driving halfway across a busy city to a conference centre or arena. You can do five or six of them in a day, with less disruption.
Another advantage to the bigger VC-25 aircraft is that it has superior facilities. The connectivity is excellent. It has a proper conference room. Harris needs to use the transit time while travelling wisely. Use the excellent communications technology to work the phones and have teleconferences. Use the conference room to hold meetings. Rest well.
The reason why George W. Bush emerged looking rested after a long flight was that there is a bedroom with a bed on the VC-25. The campaign trail is a marathon. Rest is important. So is food. Eat a nice lunch. Every inch of the VC-25 is a marginal advantage. Even the press compartment in the back. Go back and work the press pool while in flight.
Lengthy logistics tails make for fatigue, not just by the candidate but by the staff. More mistakes get made. A tired and angry Trump will make for more TV vignettes that can be weaponised. Point out every empty seat in every Trump photo. Complain that Trump is ignoring rural America so he gets out there to shore up his base in places where he doesn’t need to.
Finally, the electorate has a remarkably short memory. It will be the last three weeks that count. Harris will want to go into those three weeks with energy and budget. Between now and mid-October, is a marathon. From the middle of October, it is a sprint.