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Former England football manager Gareth Southgate managed to snatch an improbable victory for the English team against the Netherlands in the recent Euro 2024 semi-finals by substituting captain Harry Kane out for Ollie Watkins, who went on to score the winning goal in the closing minutes of that game.
The question is whether the Democratic Party’s last-minute substitution of Kamala Harris as its presumptive presidential candidate, instead of President Joe Biden, will work in the same way – and go one step further than England to ultimate victory in the US elections in November.
Biden’s decision to bow out of the race, after weeks of speculation about whether he had the physical and mental strength to defeat Donald Trump, let alone last another four years in office, has at the very least, provided a chance for the Democrats to score an equaliser and keep themselves in contention.
Just last week, all the momentum seemed to be on the Republican side. Attendees at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee were energised, enthusiastic, and united behind their presidential candidate. By contrast, the Democrats seemed in disarray, divided over whether Biden should step down, frustrated by how long it was taking for the matter to be resolved, uncertain about who should replace him, and the mechanics for doing so.
Now the narrative has shifted.
Former Republican candidate Nikki Haley predicted earlier this year that, whichever party first got rid of its 80-year-old nominee, would go on to win the election. Republicans are now the party stuck with the cantankerous old white guy as their candidate. And the Democrats are the party with the courage to recognise their candidate was too old and flawed – and to do something about it.
Trump comes across as someone obsessed with himself and stuck in the past, his speeches peppered with endless references to his own greatness, past grievances and personal grudges. Meanwhile, Joe Biden has proved willing to put aside his personal ambitions for the future of the country.
Trump, and by extension his party, seem all about me, me, me. Biden, and his party, come across as more concerned about you, you, you.
Trump’s selection of the fiery populist, Senator JD Vance of Ohio, as his running mate was a risky decision to double-down on his isolationist, protectionist, ‘America First’ agenda. This might consolidate his MAGA voting base, but they were fired up for Trump anyway. Vance carries the much bigger risk of alienating many moderate Republicans and independents.
By contrast, the Democrats – if they are smart – now have a chance to re-energise their base, which had been unenthused about Biden, while also broadening their ticket to appeal to centrists.
This points to Harris, if she is confirmed as the party’s presidential candidate, not selecting another progressive as her vice president, but someone from the moderate wing of the party. Good options would be Governor Ray Cooper of North Carolina, Governor Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Governor Josh Shapiro from Pennsylvania, or Governor Gretchen Whitmer from Michigan – all of whom have shown their ability to win election in purple or red-leaning states.
The way in which both parties have responded to Biden’s departure from the race is also illustrative of its changing dynamics.
The Democrats suddenly look more united, with prominent figures across the party quickly coming together to express their respect for Biden and almost unanimously backing Kamala Harris as his successor. The Republicans now seem to be the ones on the backfoot, unsure of how to respond.
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Perhaps predictably, Trump and Vance chose to make sour, graceless, comments about their Democratic rivals.
Trump, for instance, used his Truth Social platform to lambast Biden as the worst President the United States has ever had.
On Fox News, Vance claimed that Harris was a “childless cat lady” who is “miserable” with her life because she doesn’t have children, which he believes means that she doesn’t have a “direct stake” in America. Those of us who follow UK politics will remember how badly Andrea Leadsom’s similar attack on Theresa May for not having children landed during the 2016 Conservative Party leadership contest.
By contrast, more traditional Republicans – including Trump’s own former Vice President Mike Pence, and Senator Mitt Romney – have praised Biden for being a great patriot and public servant.
A measure of Republican panic can be seen in the attempts by some of its operatives to argue that Biden was somehow ousted in an anti-democratic ‘coup’, and that it is illegitimate for the Democrats to try to replace him at this late stage. Neither argument holds any water, since Biden himself voluntarily stepped down, and there are no rules against Democrats designating a new candidate.
The attempted assassination of Donald Trump and his coronation at the RNC convention are now yesterday’s news. All of the media attention is on the Democrats and their Convention in August. The Democratic Party now seems more fired up and enthused. The new Harris election team, for example, announced that it had raised $49.6 million in grassroots donations in less than 24 hours since it was launched.
So, how should the Democrats capitalise on this new momentum?
First, they should not appear too triumphant or overconfident.
To her credit, Kamala Harris has so far chosen the sensible path of taking nothing for granted, but stating that she knows she has to earn people’s trust and their votes. In her first public remarks since Biden’s announcement, addressing a group of athletes at the White House on Monday, Harris spent the first half of her speech praising the current President, and the second half praising the athletes. She said nothing about herself – a nice contrast with the vain, bombastic, Trump.
Second, they need to make the case more effectively, than Biden was able to, as to why American engagement and leadership in the world remains so important – and why Trump’s policy prescriptions would be so harmful for America’s democracy, economy, security, and standing in the world.
Third, they need to broaden their messages beyond the ‘culture war’ topics of abortion, gender, and identity issues.
Harris, as Vice President, has led the Democratic Party’s campaigning on abortion and women’s rights – and will no doubt continue to do so effectively. As a woman, she is particularly well placed to push back against the men on the top of the Republican ticket, claiming to tell women how they should behave. But she has to show herself able to expand beyond this. She has to show that she can be America’s Commander-in-Chief, and that she is well on top of economic policy issues. She also must not appear to take black or female votes for granted, purely because she is black and female.
Finally, like Keir Starmer’s Labour Party was able to do in the UK, the new Democratic ticket has to find a way to reclaim the mantle of speaking for ordinary working people, and not let Trump and Vance get away with their claim that only they represent ‘real’ or patriotic American voters.
Some pundits worry that, even with this new energy on the Democratic side, it is still too late for it to catch up with Trump and the MAGA Republicans. I believe that the opposite is true.
The vast majority of American voters were disenchanted with the state of the race a few weeks ago, and largely tuned-out. The twin shocks of the attempted assassination of Trump, and now Biden’s decision to bow out, will have sent a bolt of electricity through the country. Voters are likely newly engaged.
There is plenty of time for the Democrats to get their house in order, and organise a new campaign around Harris, or whoever else is selected to replace Biden. There is everything still to play for.