‘Assassination Attempts and the Rise of the Right – Amid the Turmoil, Britain is Emerging as a Steadying Force’

Extraordinary events in Europe and America this month have left many of us reeling. 

In the UK, the Labour landslide, the collapse of the Conservative Party into bitter recriminations, and the rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform as a force on the right, have transformed the domestic political landscape. 

In France, President Emmanuel Macron’s snap election to try and defeat his country’s extreme right, only to see a coalition of leftist parties unexpectedly triumphing, has left France in disarray just days before the Olympics begin. 

In the US, pressure is mounting on President Joe Biden to step aside, with his diagnosis of COVID perhaps providing a face-saving way out. Donald Trump narrowly escaped assassination, and selected isolationist Senator JD Vance of Ohio as his vice-presidential nominee. He was crowned the undisputed king at the Republican National Convention.

In the same timeframe, NATO held its 75th anniversary summit in Washington, where it reaffirmed support for Ukraine’s eventual membership of that body, and tried to ‘Trump-proof’ aid to it, by pledging long-term assistance worth $43 billion and creating a dedicated unit within NATO to coordinate military equipment and training.

NATO also adopted further deterrent measures against Russia, condemned China as an enabler of Russian aggression, and strengthened partnerships with Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea.

Meanwhile, Hungarian President Viktor Orbán began his country’s six-month EU presidency by meeting Vladimir Putin in Moscow, and President Xi Jinping in Beijing – without EU backing – leading to a strong rebuke by the European Parliament.

Top EU officials announced that they would boycott informal events hosted by Hungary during its presidency, while EU foreign ministers are also set to snub Hungary by organising their own foreign affairs meeting in Brussels in August, instead of travelling to Budapest.

This week, Ursula Von der Leyen secured another five years as President of the European Commission, but now faces the difficult task of assembling a new team of commissioners reflecting the new balance of power in the European Parliament, which has swung to the right following elections last month.

She will also need to take into account the demands of various power players across Europe for the most prized portfolios, such as competition and trade, including by ascendant Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni. The EU designated Antonio Costa of Portugal as the new European Council President, and Estonia’s Kaja Kallas as the new High Representative for Foreign Policy. 

The surge in nationalist and populist parties across Europe will make it much harder for the EU to agree policies on many issues, including climate change, trade and agriculture. It also increases pressure on it to tackle immigration. 

Alongside grappling with these internal challenges, Europe’s leaders will be worrying about how to respond should Trump win re-election in November.

Trump’s contempt for global rules and institutions, protectionist instincts, hostility towards NATO, and apparent affinity for dictators such as Putin, risk upending the international order which has underpinned transatlantic security since the end of the Second World War.

Trump’s disdain for international cooperation on climate change, declared intention to impose peace on Ukraine, and unambiguous support for Israel in its war in Gaza – which now risks spreading to engulf Lebanon – are likely to stoke division within Europe, as leaders decide whether to align or distance themselves from his policies.

Germany has already announced plans to halve its military aid to Ukraine next year. 

Starmer’s Tough Task Ahead With Europe

Amid these head-spinning events, it would be no surprise if there was little appetite for the EU to engage with the UK Government on its plans to ‘re-set’ the substance of the UK-EU relationship, as outlined in the King’s Speech this week. 

Not only does the current Brexit deal work broadly in the EU’s favour on trade, but European leaders will also be wary of appearing to allow Keir Starmer to ‘cherry pick’ EU cooperation. They will be reluctant to grant significant concessions, without securing meaningful benefits in return. 

They will also want to be sure that no future UK government will renege on any new deal. This will probably require evidence of a lasting change in British public attitudes towards the EU, a more informed understanding among the UK’s political classes about the EU, and perhaps more favourable press coverage as well.

Foreign Secretary David Lammy recently told the BBC that the UK was “nowhere near” renegotiating its trade deal with the EU.  

Nevertheless, the fourth European Political Community (EPC) summit hosted by Starmer at Blenheim Palace this week was a chance to reset the tone of UK-EU relations. 

The EPC was the brainchild of Macron, established in 2022 after the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, as a way to enable countries across Europe to discuss shared political, economic, and security concerns.

Participants include every EU member; countries outside of the EU such as the UK, Norway, and Switzerland; aspirant member countries, such as from the Western Balkans, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia; and those on the fringes of Europe such as Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. The grouping does not have formal decision-making powers, but serves as a useful ‘talking shop’ to discuss strategic challenges. 

By all accounts, Starmer and his team made a good start.

In his opening remarks, the Prime Minister reiterated his wish to reset relations with the EU and his determination to be “a friend and a partner, ready to work with you. Not part of the European Union, but very much a part of Europe. Not focused on the differences between us, but on the values that we share”.

He highlighted the UK’s continued commitment to Ukraine, NATO, and European security, and specified that his Government “will never withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights”. 

At a press conference at the end of the summit, Starmer said: “It’s not just a good idea to work with our European partners, it’s essential. We can only make progress on the issues people care about like illegal immigration and national security if we have the maturity to reach a hand out to our European friends.” He got the impression that EU leaders were receptive to his overtures. 

His words will, indeed, have been music to the ears of most European leaders, after the disparaging attitude of successive Conservative leaders towards the EU.

Liz Truss was so determined to prove her anti-EU credentials that she could barely bring herself to even mention the organisation during her time as Foreign Secretary and Prime Minister. It’s something of a delicious irony that it was her surprising decision to sign the UK up to join the EPC which provided the first formal opportunity for the Labour Government to engage with the EU.  

This new sense of warmth will take time to translate into concrete results. Nevertheless, at the summit, Starmer achieved agreement to work together to combat the criminal gangs behind illegal immigration. He was also able to announce that the UK had beefed up its presence at Europol, had concluded new cooperation arrangements on organised crime with Slovenia and Slovakia, and had launched a new £48 million fund to address root causes of migration from Africa and the Middle East. 

Further playing in the UK’s favour is the genuine concern across the continent about what a second Trump presidency might mean for European security, against the backdrop of Russian aggression in Ukraine.

Britain retains respect and influence across Europe as a top-ranked military power, a major player within NATO, and as one of Ukraine’s earliest and strongest backers. The EU is therefore likely to be open to helping the new Labour Government to achieve its manifesto commitment to restore structured foreign and security policy cooperation – something which the EU, in fact, offered the UK as part of the Brexit deal but which Boris Johnson’s Government rejected.  

Perhaps the biggest takeaway from the summit is the sense that Britain is at last ‘back’ at the top table of European leaders, now that it is no longer in thrall to the Conservative Party’s internal Brexit dramas and neuralgia about working with the EU.

It was striking how frequently Starmer emphasised the word ‘maturity’ to describe the way he intended Britain to behave on the world stage. Under his leadership, he made clear, the UK was not just willing, but actively keen, to engage with European partners in constructive fashion.

In another welcome shift, Starmer also toned down the simplistic, polarising rhetoric which has characterised much British political discourse in recent years, particularly on sensitive issues such as immigration.

For example, he said there was no “silver bullet” which could solve the issue overnight. He avoided promising that he could quickly or easily stop the boats from coming across the Channel. He stressed the need to improve the processing of outstanding asylum requests, and said that immigration was not a “left/right” issue, but a matter of common, practical concern. 

Starmer also avoided playing partisan politics. He credited his Conservative predecessors for establishing the UK’s strong support for Ukraine, and refused to be drawn into commenting on the political situation in America. 

It is astonishing to see how quickly Keir Starmer has settled into his role as Britain’s Prime Minister, confidently handling questions from the press as if he has been in the job for years. His straightforward style is not just a welcome relief for the UK, but perhaps just the steadying force Europe needs, as it faces turbulent winds from across the Atlantic.