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Over the past few years, major geopolitical shifts have occurred in the South Caucasus, where Armenia is turning westward while Georgia is becoming heavily influenced by Russian politics.
Armenia, which has fought several devastating wars since 2020, stood at a disadvantage against a more heavily armed and internationally backed Azerbaijan, but this was just the tip of the iceberg.
Russia, behind the scenes, would play an instrumental role using hybrid warfare tactics that helped lead to Armenia’s precarious situation, where Yerevan is now looking for reliable partners. Because of such a geopolitical shift, now is the time for the West to undo past mistakes and integrate a valuable country into becoming a future non-NATO ally.
Armenia’s Security Conundrum
Armenia’s geography is kryptonite to the country as Yerevan is sandwiched between two countries that have historical hostilities against them, such as the Armenian Genocide with Turkey and conflicts over territory with Azerbaijan.
Armenia, for the past 200 years, has been under the fold of Moscow since the Russian conquest of the Caucasus and subsequent Soviet Union. Having a historical connection to Karabakh, Josef Stalin would transfer the then Armenian majority autonomous oblast to Azerbaijan, igniting a brutal sectarian conflict.
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The redrawing of borders by Moscow and the subsequent collapse of the Soviet Union led to numerous wars and displacement, and the South Caucasus was no exception. The First Karabakh War was a major victory for Armenia but came at a price, including mass displacement on both sides.
Subsequent Armenian governments would be heavily Kremlin-backed by the new Russian Federation, and Azerbaijan would spend decades building its military from the ground and strike back at Armenia at the most opportunistic time.
Second Karabakh War and Russo-Armenian Split
Several pro-Russian governments in Armenia allowed decades-long autocrat Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin to have a foothold in the South Caucasus, but Armenia’s Velvet Revolution subsequently impeded this. Removing the pro-Russian Sargsyan government for a more open-to-the-West one was a blow the Kremlin would hold a grudge on akin to Ukraine’s Maiden.
Azerbaijan would ignite the Second Karabakh War in 2020 and, this time, be far more prepared than Armenia, which stagnated in its military and international standing. Supplemented by Turkish and Israeli drones and military advisers from the former, Azerbaijan was able to capitulate Armenia in less than 44 days and take the majority of the Karabakh region.
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The capitulation was Russian-backed, and Putin, using renewed soft power akin to operations in Syria, would send a sizeable contingent of soldiers to act as peacekeepers. Armenia was also humiliated, and they would have no choice but to accept Russian protection as, without geopolitical support like Azerbaijan had, the country would continue to stagnate.
Analysts would claim that Russia was the true winner of the 2020 war as it gave the Kremlin a physical presence in Karabakh not seen since the height of the USSR. Moscow also helped dictate terms of the trilateral agreement, in which Yerevan even had to cede districts to Baku that weren’t captured in the war.
Growing Ties Westward as Russia Becomes Unreliable
Against the backdrop of the 2020 war, Armenia would once again face a military confrontation with Azerbaijan, this time in Armenia proper. In late 2021, Azerbaijan’s military invaded several points of Armenia, and despite requesting assistance, only a US-mitigated ceasefire would occur.
Armenia is in a Russian-created defensive alliance called the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), which the Kremlin envisioned to rival NATO. However, the organisation is highly uncooperative with various kleptocrats and internal conflicts, such as the Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan clashes.
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CSTO did not come to Armenia’s aid in 2021, and the heads of state minimally put diplomatic pressure on Azerbaijan’s dictatorship to mitigate tensions. From this, Armenia’s