After years of turning a blind eye to Vladimir Putin’s aggression, the West finally appears to be uniting against him – as Ukraine continues to pay the cost
It is difficult to find reasons to be hopeful amid the dark days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Never in recent decades has our world order seemed so shaken. Never has the peace and security we have taken for granted on our continent seemed so much at risk. Yet, I believe that today’s crisis offers some rays of hope for a better future.
I am in no doubt about who the aggressor is in this war.
There are absolutely no grounds for the claims by the autocrat Vladimir Putin that he has been ‘driven’ to this war by western misdeeds, including NATO’s alleged encroachments on Russia’s self-proclaimed ‘sphere of influence’.
There are no grounds for his assertion that the Ukrainian Government is illegitimate and comprised of Nazis.
There are no grounds for Putin’s apparent belief that Russian soldiers would be greeted with open arms and flowers as ‘liberators’ by ordinary Ukrainians. The graphic pictures on our screens every night of courageous Ukrainian defenders, their President and Government’s dignity under fire, and the near universal condemnation of Russian actions internationally all give the lie to that.
Putin’s allegations are akin to an abusive husband claiming that he was ‘provoked’ by his wife’s behaviour into beating her up; that he is entitled to assert ‘his rights’ over her; and that what goes on ‘within the home’ is no business of outsiders.
However, it is true that the West may have given Putin an opening, through its failure to respond sufficiently robustly to his previous outrages.
No Deterrence
Vladimir Putin’s previous aggressions make for a long list.
His 2008 invasion of Georgia. His backing for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in that country’s civil war – despite his documented war crimes. His invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and the seizure of Crimea. His backing for Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko during his oppressive clampdown on citizens after his stolen election in 2020.
The West failed to enforce a red line on the use of chemical weapons in Syria in 2013. We withdrew in chaotic fashion from Afghanistan last summer, abandoning our Afghan partners there.
Why would Putin not interpret all of these incidents as signs of Western weakness?
Moreover, his record of atrocities and the consolidation of his powers began with his bombardment of apartments and killing of civilians in Chechnya in the 1990s.
Why should we be surprised that he resorts to the same tactics now, in Ukraine, when they have served him so well in the past – and nothing that the West has done has been sufficient to deter him?
The West also gave Putin encouragement by continuing to trade with his country, increasing its dependence on Russian energy, and accepting the money of Russian oligarchs in its financial systems. Nowhere was this more apparent than in the UK, where oligarchs and their relatives were allowed to buy expensive homes in our cities, launder their ill-gotten gains through our institutions, dock their yachts in our harbours, play out their sporting fantasies by buying stakes in our sports clubs, and send their children to our private schools.
Successive Conservative-led governments allowed Russians with connections to Putin to buy British citizenship through ‘golden visa’ schemes; make donations to our political parties; gain privileged access to political circles; and broadcast their lies and misinformation on our airwaves and through the internet.
But, above all, the West gave Putin an opportunity by taking for granted the strength of our democracies and alliances.
In 10 days, Vladimir Putin has achieved more western solidarity than has existed in the past 20 years
Brexit, facilitated by Russian money to some of its backers, distracted and undermined European solidarity. It created distrust between the UK and the EU. It sowed division between Leavers and Remainers at home.
Political, economic and cultural tensions exacerbated by the 2008 financial crisis and the 2015 migrant crisis strained relations within and between EU member states and fuelled populist politics across the continent.
The presidency of Donald Trump – in whose election the Russians interfered – exacerbated partisan politics in the US and created distrust between the US and its partners in NATO.
All of these divisions seem to have become more entrenched with each passing year, until – so consumed by our arguments with each other – we took our eye off the ball of external threats.
Business As Usual
Certainly, the West has issued rhetorical condemnations of specific human rights violations committed by Russia. We have deplored the closing down of NGOs and media space in Russia. We have criticised the detention of opposition politicians, such as Alexei Navalny, and the crushing of dissent against Putin’s regime. We have introduced some sanctions and expelled some Russian diplomats from our countries in response to particularly heinous crimes, such as the murder of Putin’s critics or the poisoning of former Russian agents. We have continued to support NATO’s ‘open door’ policy and given significant financial and other assistance to Ukraine and other frontline states facing pressure from Russia.
But, until now, the West has never taken any decisive