From economic aftershocks to social unrest, racial discrimination and healthcare inequality, Otto English predicts a pandemic will transform this century just as it did the last
An epidemic arrives in the midst of global political upheaval. Opportunities are missed and the scale of the crisis is misunderstood. As the virus spreads, some countries handle it better than others. Social distancing measures are enforced and then ignored. Racial tension spills over into violence and fortunes both economic and political are lost and made.
Sound familiar? As we navigate the painful path of COVID-19, what can we learn from the pandemic of 1918-1920 and its aftermath about what happens next?
The Second Wave
In August 1918, as the Great War sped towards its bloody denouement, a deadly virus cut through the allied armies on the Western Front. This was the second wave of the erroneously named “Spanish Flu” which had come and gone, almost imperceptibly, during the early spring of that same year.
This time, it took no prisoners. Since April, the H1N1 virus had mutated into something far more noxious and, in the trenches of Europe, where exhausted troops had weakened immune systems and poor sanitation, it found its perfect breeding ground. Soon it was felling soldiers with all the murderous ferocity of a machine gun.
The disease appeared so abruptly and with such savagery that, in the superstitious atmosphere of the trenches, rumours ran rife that this was a secret German chemical weapon, hatched up by Prussian boffins in their Berlin labs.
As the rate of infection escalated, the Allied High Command realised that something had to be done and so took the fateful decision to remove the very sickest men from the frontline on troop trains. That choice undoubtedly exacerbated the spread of the disease and within weeks the virus was rampaging through western Europe – even across the enemy lines.
This spelled disaster for the German Imperial Army and the vast number of additional casualties it suffered as a consequence undoubtedly hastened the end of the war. By early autumn, the game was up and on 11 November 1918 Armistice was declared.
As the disease engulfed the world throughout 1918, many countries were slow to respond or appreciate the scale of the crisis. Neutral nations fared little better than the belligerents but they did at least acknowledge what was going on and that is why Spain, which was quick to report the scale of the emergency, was erroneously blamed for something that was not of its making.
Those places that did act more swiftly and aggressively recovered far more quickly than those that didn’t, both economically and in terms of containment.
In America, a German-born businessman called Frederick Trump contracted the virus and died.
In many countries, social distancing and other measures familiar to us in 2020 were introduced. Britain’s pubs, theatres, schools and churches were closed. Weddings and funerals were cancelled. The coffins stacked up. People were advised to stay at home and told to wear gauze masks if they ventured out. In the US, it was eventually made a legal requirement to do so.
In the absence of social media memes, an American rhyme was penned to hammer the message home: “Obey the laws and wear the gauze, protect your jaws from septic paws.”
Some decided that they would rather take their chances with the disease than have to put up with the indignity of face coverings. In San Francisco in October 1918, libertarians set up an ‘anti-mask league’ and began protesting against the measures designed to save their lives and stop the spread.
With millions infected, the disease impacted everything.
Economic Aftershocks and Social Unrest
Western economies already hit by the devastating effect of war started to wobble. In the US, many industries – including mining, hospitality and entertainment – simply ground to a halt. There was some reported wage growth but this was significantly outweighed by the huge economic and social cost of a pandemic that was wreaking death across the world.
Nobody was immune. In Britain, the Prime Minister David Lloyd-George fell victim to the illness during a trip to Manchester and was hospitalised. The severity of his condition, which almost cost him his life, was hushed up by a sympathetic press.
In America, a German-born businessman called Frederick Trump contracted the virus and died. The hefty $4,000 life insurance policy that subsequently paid out was used to burnish a family fortune that would one day be passed on to his grandson Donald.
Mortality