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For most of the past four months, the war with Iran has shifted attention away from Ukraine. Conventional wisdom has long held that the Ukrainian conflict is at best a stalemate, and at worst a situation where Russia can simply grind Ukraine down over time with “meat wave” tactics that rely on superior numbers.
However, several months ago, the balance of power shifted towards Ukraine because of their more numerous and higher-quality long-range drone, an advantage that was likely to start causing major problems for Russia…and now it is, in the worst ways possible for Vladimir Putin.
Over the past two months, Ukrainian long-range drones have been taking a fearful toll on the Russian petroleum industry, which accounts for roughly 20% of the country’s GDP. This came to a head in mid-June when Ukrainian drones severely damaged the Kapotnya oil refinery only 15 km from downtown Moscow in full view of an ethnic-Russian populace that had been carefully shielded from the realities of the war.
After years of wartime boom, the Russian economy is facing a recession. Despite high oil prices and easing of US sanctions, despite having been a “gas station masquerading as a country”, Russia has become a net importer of refined petroleum products.
As Russia throws itself at Konstantynivke, Russian front-line casualties have continued to remain high. They averaged roughly 1300 per day throughout the spring. Most are due to drones, with about two-thirds killed in action and one-third wounded.
These numbers are unsustainable for Russia; combat losses now consistently outpace recruiting replacements. They also eat significantly into the Russian defence budget, as recruiting and death bonuses constitute a major (and growing) portion of spending. There are now plausible rumours of another unpopular mass-mobilisation in the fall, after elections for the Duma are over.
Far behind the Russian front lines in Ukraine, medium-range drones are increasingly on the prowl for Russian military trucks, fuel tankers, and trains. Russian logistics are being significantly disrupted. Larger drones and munitions have also been targeting vital bridges that form the arteries linking Russia to occupied territories.
There had been speculation as to what the goal of Ukraine’s interdiction campaign was, and now it’s become clear: Ukraine’s targeting strategy makes it obvious that they intend to cut off Crimea, making it untenable for Russia to hold.
Ukraine has been systematically targeting air defences, electrical infrastructure, fuel supplies, fuel transportation, and Russian means of transporting fuel and goods into the Crimean Peninsula. There are only a few effective avenues to supply goods and fuel there, and Ukraine is making all of them largely impassable.
The R-280 highway connects Crimea to Rostov-on-Don in Russia through occupied Ukrainian territories (Mariupol and Melitopol), down into Crimea. The highway is under intense, round-the-clock Ukrainian drone and artillery fire, earning it the nickname as the ‘Highway of Death’ due to heavy damage to military logistics, fuel convoys, and civilian traffic.
Ukraine has destroyed the few rail and vehicle bridges to Crimea along the northern route, near the towns of Armiansk, Chonhar, and Henichesk along the M17 and M18 highways.