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IMPACT UPDATE: Byline Times investigations have forced the suspension of two Conservative local election candidates after revealing their far-right extremist posts, and our investigation into Reform’s connections to THE COMPANY JCB cited by the Guardian. 05/05/26
Half of Labour’s voters from the last general election are set to abandon Keir Starmer’s party in Thursday’s English local elections, as it faces a pincer movement from both the Greens and Reform in their London strongholds, an exclusive new poll for Byline Times suggests.
Just 50% of Labour’s 2024 voters still plan to vote for the party in this week’s England local elections, according to the poll conducted by pollsters Omnisis. This compares to 82% of Reform’s general election voters and 80% of the Green party’s voters.
The fall in support for Labour is particularly stark in London, where just 28% of those surveyed said they planned to vote for the party, down from 42% at the capital’s last local elections in 2022.
The decline appears to be driven by both national and local factors.
Across the country 61% of those voters surveyed said the Labour Government’s performance had been poor, with even Labour voters more likely to have a negative opinion of its record than a positive one.
Voters were even more critical of Labour’s record when asked if the country was going in the right or wrong direction, with 67% saying the latter, compared to just 16% disagreeing.
Labour’s reputation for running local councils is also the worst of any of the major parties, according to our survey. Almost half (48%) said they most associated Labour with badly run local authorities, compared to 26% who said the Conservatives and just 17% who said Reform.
National economic issues also now appear to be the dominant factor deciding people’s votes locally.
Overall 52% picked the economy and cost of living as one of the main issues driving their vote, compared to 42% who said the NHS and just 35% who said immigration. More local issues such as waste collection (14%) and parks (10%) were less likely to be a driving factor in people’s vote.
Reform UK Refuses to Explain Why Nigel Farage Met and Posed with Man Criminally Convicted for Violent Attack on Anti-Racism Meeting at a Church
For a year-and-a-half, Byline Times has attempted to get to the bottom of a photograph showing the party’s leader with far-right activists. Now, this newspaper’s findings cast fresh doubts on Farage’s claim that he refuses to associate with extreme elements of the populist right
Conservative Collapse
The survey suggests that Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative party also faces a severe drop in its support, both in London and across England.
Conservative support in London, where the party held the mayoralty for eight years between 2008 and 2016, has fallen to just 16% in our survey. Across those seats in England where voting is taking place, even fewer voters – just 15% – say they plan to vote for Badenoch’s party.
The fall in support for the two major parties poses opportunities for both Reform UK and the Greens.
In London, where Zack Polanski is targeting a series of inner city boroughs, the party’s support has risen to 15%, handing them the opportunity to seize significant numbers of councillors from a previously dominant Labour party. However, hopes of larger gains have been dampened following media reports and controversy over the Green leader’s response to the Golders Green attack, with separate polling by YouGov showing a steep decline in Polanski’s personal ratings over the past week.
Reform UK, which did not exist prior to the last local elections in the capital in 2022 also stands to benefit from the collapse in support for the Conservatives across England, with a series of outer London boroughs also set to tip towards Farage’s party.
Overall Reform are neck and neck with Labour across England with both parties on 22%, followed by the Conservatives on 15% and the Greens of 14% and the Liberal Democrats on 7%.
Once those voters who say they don’t know how they are going to vote are excluded, Labour and Reform are both on 27%, followed by the Conservatives on 19% and the Greens on 17%.
Tactical Squeeze Against Reform?
Tactical voting is set to play a significant role in these elections, according to our survey, with anti-Reform voters most likely to vote strategically.
Overall 42% of those surveyed across England said they would consider voting tactically, with 9% already planning to do so. Openness to tactical voting was highest among Lib Dem and Green intenders.
Remain voters were also much more likely to say they would consider voting tactically, with 52% who voted to remain in the EU in 2016 saying they would consider doing so, compared to just 33% of Leave voters, suggesting the pro-Brexit Reform party could suffer from a tactical squeeze in some parts of the country.
Omnisis surveyed 1,000 people across England during April, with voters split equally between London and the rest of England and the results weighted to reflect the adult population profile.
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