Exclusive Poll: Anti-Reform Tactical Voters Poised to Defeat Nigel Farage’s Party in Gorton and Denton By-election

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The Green Party and Labour are in an effective dead heat with Reform in this week’s upcoming Gorton and Denton by-election, with tactical voters leaning towards backing the Greens in order to defeat Nigel Farage’s party, an exclusive new poll commissioned by Byline Times and Forward Democracy suggests.

The poll, conducted by pollsters Opinium found that among all voters in the Manchester constituency the Greens are level with Labour on 28%, just one point ahead of Reform UK on 27%.

However, among those voters most likely to turn out on Thursday, the Greens edge ahead to 30%, with Labour and Reform both on 28%.

The poll suggests that tactical voting could easily swing the contest, with anti-Reform voters significantly more likely to switch to the Greens than to Labour.

Around two thirds (66%) of those Labour and Liberal Democrat voters surveyed said they would be prepared to switch to the Greens if they were the party most likely to beat Reform, compared to just 41% of Green and Lib Dem voters who said they would switch to Labour to defeat Farage’s party.

The three parties all appear to have victory in their grasp, however, with the final result “too close to call” according to Opinium, who advised that it is “not possible reliably to separate the three parties statistically into any order” given the closeness of the vote.

“The Gorton & Denton by-election is shaping up to be an incredibly tight and unpredictable three-way race, with this latest poll also suggesting the Greens could benefit more than Labour from tactical voting in the final days of the campaign,” James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium said.

“Since the July 2024 General Election, Labour has been squeezed from both sides, losing ground to Reform on the right and to the Greens on the left. That leaves the result finely balanced and highly sensitive to even small shifts as polling day approaches.

“Crucially, progressive voters appear more likely to back the Greens rather than Labour as the anti-Reform option, a dynamic that could ultimately decide this knife-edge contest.”

Both the Greens and Labour have attempted to persuade voters that they are best placed to defeat Reform, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer campaigning personally in the area on Monday and insisting that it is a “straight fight” between Labour and Reform.

The by-election was called following the resignation of former Labour MP Andrew Gwynne and has drawn huge national attention after Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham was blocked by the Labour party from standing in the seat, in a move that went down badly with many local voters.

Labour’s opponents believe Starmer’s unpopularity has also hindered their chances in a seat which was won by the party with a large majority at the last general election.

The Green Party’s candidate Hannah Spencer told Byline Times that she was bemused by Starmer’s decision to campaign in the constituency ahead of the polls opening.

“It was a very strange choice to bring Keir Starmer when people here are so angry at him as an individual,” she said in an interview with this paper on Tuesday.

“Not least when we’ve just seen Peter Mandelson get arrested.”

However, Green party sources acknowledged privately that Labour, which retained the seat at the last general election with a large majority, could still win the contest due to “shy Labour” voters turning out for Starmer’s party.

An ‘Extreme’ Reform Candidate

Both the Green and Labour campaigns believe that Reform’s selection of the former academic, turned hard right GB News presenter, Matt Goodwin has helped to energise their own supporters.

Goodwin caused controversy last year after suggesting that UK-born people from minority ethnic backgrounds should not always necessarily be considered British.

“It takes more than a piece of paper to make somebody ‘British’” he said in comments he has since refused to disown.

Byline Times revealed this week that Goodwin also has ties to multiple organisations pushing discredited “race science” ideas and has suggested that genetics will in future expose the “inherent differences between groups”.

Spencer told this paper that Reform’s selection of Goodwin had boosted her campaign.

 “A lot of people here really care about keeping Reform out” Spencer told Byline Times.

“They don’t want someone who’s got such extreme views near any form of power.”

The poll was jointly commissioned by Byline Times and the progressive campaign group Forward Democracy, which runs the StopReformUK.vote tactical voting website.

Tom de Grunwald, Director of Forward Democracy said: “If over 60% of voters in Gorton and Denton want a progressive MP but don’t get one, the system has failed. No one should win on a small minority — especially a far‑right party like Nigel Farage’s Reform, who don’t come anywhere close to representing the majority of residents. Until we make a much needed upgrade to our voting system, tactical voting will remain necessary to ensure progressive voters are adequately represented.”

Tactical voting expert Becky Snowden who founded TacticalVote.co.uk added: “Reform has every chance of winning this by-election unless progressive voters unite behind one candidate. The polling shows that people here are far more likely to vote tactically for Greens than they are Labour, and this is why tactical voting sites are recommending Green. But with both parties claiming they are the tactical choice, it remains to be seen if voters hear the expert advice above the noise.”

Opinium conducted a representative online survey of the Gorton & Denton constituency, with interviews conducted between 16th and 24th February 2026. The study included 401 complete responses, and 339 who gave a voting intention.