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The louder they cheer, the sooner they’re gone. That was always the rule of thumb for covering Conservative Prime Ministers under the last Government.
Whether it was Theresa May, Liz Truss, or Boris Johnson, Conservative MPs gathering at their ‘1922 Committee’ inside Parliament always gave their moribund leader a hero’s welcome, banging desk and hurling cheers, only to then swiftly boot them from office, almost the minute after leaving the room.
These effusive receptions were always heavily co-ordinated. Conservative whips and ministers, aware that the Prime Minister was on their last legs, would stand by the edge of the room and bang the wooden walls, for the benefit of the dozens of journalists gathered in the corridor outside.
A similar operation appeared to take place on Monday night when Keir Starmer addressed his own MPs in Parliament.
Just like the Conservatives, Labour MPs hollered and whooped as the Prime Minister arrived in the wood-panneled room overlooking the Thames.
This loyal performance was badly needed by the Prime Minister
Just hours earlier, Starmer had lost his head of Communications, Tim Allan, shortly before the party’s leader in Scotland, Anas Sarwar, publicly called for the Prime Minister to stand down.
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“The distraction needs to end, and the leadership in Downing Street has to change,” Sarwar told a press conference north of the border.
“We cannot allow the failures at the heart of Downing Street to mean the failures continue here in Scotland”.
Asked about his own failures, Sarwar was more circumspect, however. Pushed on his previous description of Peter Mandelson as “my friend” Sarwar replied that “Peter Mandelson is not someone or something I want to be associated with”. No kidding
Yet while Sarwar may have been an assassin, he wanted it be known that he was a reluctant one.
“I have a certain level of loyalty to the Prime Minister,” he insisted, without quite clarifying what that level was.
Back in Westminster and Operation Save Starmer was in full flow. After almost two hours of organised applause, Starmer and his MPs finally emerged to speak to the waiting hacks.
Ministers and spokespeople stepped forward to spin their tale. Starmer’s performance had been masterful. His MPs were grateful and loyal. The Cabinet was united. The Prime Minister was on course for another decade in Downing Street.
Not everyone appeared concinced by this story.
Leaving the room, one exasperated Labour MP looked back at their compliant colleagues and remarked that they were “like the troops at Little Bighorn”.
But just like Colonel Custer declaring that “there are not enough Indians in the world to defeat the Seventh Cavalry,” Starmer’s spinners continued their tale behind.
“The Prime Minister said ‘I’ll tell you this, as long as I breath in my body, I’ll be in that fight on behalf of the country that I love and believe in, against those who want to tear it up,’” his Press Secretary told us.
“He said ‘That is my fight, that is all our fight and we’re in this together.’”
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Survive Another Day
For now Labour MPs appear to agree with him. The truth is that following Sarwar’s speech, Starmer’s Cabinet rivals had a chance to topple him, but ultimately they bottled it. Faced with a choice between bravely demanding his departure now, or waiting like the troops at Little Bighorn for the inevitable after the local elections in May, they chose the latter.
Among those publicly backing the Prime Minister on Monday was Starmer’s leadership rival Wes Streeting, who told Sky News that the Prime Minister “doesn’t need to resign”, which was generous of him.
Later Streeting would issue a selection of text messages between himself and Mandelson, which just happened to cover pretty much all of the talking points that Labour MPs want to hear from a potential successor to Starmer.
For now Streeting remains loyal, but not all is as rosy as it appears. Pushed on reports that Streeting had spoken to Sarwar before he launched his attempted coup against Starmer, his spokespeople angrily denied it, instead accusing the Prime Minister’s own aides of briefing against him.
Starmer may have avoided a sudden political death on Monday, but all is not well inside Government.
On Tuesday morning the Prime Minister will address his Cabinet. Just as at the meeting of the Parliamentary Labour party, his ministers will declare their loyalty and his right to remain in place for years more to come.
Yet the louder they cheer, the sooner they’re gone.
And if history is any guide, then Starmer’s future in office remains short.