‘Keir Starmer Must Stop Chasing Reform’s Cruelty and Embrace the Compassionate Politics His Own Voters Demand’

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Prime Minister Keir Starmer is reportedly planning to launch a major Government reset, next year, starting with a King’s speech in May.

Few would dispute the need. Under current polling the party is on course for a historic routing at next year’s local elections.

So far, Labour’s response to the threat posed by Reform has been to harden its language and policy on migration, to frame human rights as impediments to tackling the issue, and to signal “toughness” at almost any cost.

The overwhelming logic behind this strategy has been the idea that Labour needs to chase Reform voters in order to survive.

However, new polling suggests the opposite could be true. 

Research carried out by Survation for Compassion in Politics, and shared exclusively with Byline Times, shows that if Keir Starmer leaned into his stated values of compassion, tolerance and care, Labour could achieve a net gain of as many as 3.2 million votes at the next election. That is roughly one sixth of the turnout at the last general election and, on similar turnout next time, could be enough to overturn Reform’s projected majority.

An electoral drubbing, in other words, is not inevitable. The votes are there. Labour is simply looking for them in the wrong direction.

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The biggest gains from this approach would not be from Reform, but from the progressive voters Labour is currently haemorrhaging. According to the polling, an estimated net 1.5 million voters say they would be more likely to switch from the Greens and 1.1 million from the Liberal Democrats were Starmer to be more clearly guided by compassion.

Labour is sitting on a vast pool of voters who broadly share its historic values but who no longer trust its leadership to stand up for them. That erosion of trust matters. Of respondents who currently expect to vote Labour, 50%  say they would be more likely to do so if Starmer showed greater compassion.  A further 1.5 million voters say they would consider switching to Labour if Keir Starmer came across as more sincere.

This is not just about rhetoric. It is about congruence.

What the polling exposes is something many Westminster commentators have missed. Despite the noise around Reform, Britain remains a predominantly progressive country. Using Survation’s segmentation, developed with 38 Degrees, 54% of the electorate falls into what is described as the progressive majority.

These voters are diverse, but they are not incoherent. They include what are known as “open hearted collectivists”, “guarded localists”, “pragmatic youth”, “rooted traditionalists” and “cosmopolitan optimists”. They differ on tone and emphasis, but they share core commitments to fairness, dignity, decency and social responsibility.

Crucially, across the whole of this progressive majority, 44% say they would be more likely to vote Labour if Starmer backed more compassionate policies. Just 11% say they would be less likely.

This directly challenges the fatalism that has taken hold in Westminster, the idea that voters are inexorably moving rightwards, and that the only way to defeat the far right is to mimic its language or legitimise its framing. The evidence tells a different story.

As CEO of Compassion in Politics, I have spent years arguing that compassion is not an add on to politics, but a governing principle grounded in evidence, effectiveness and trust.

This polling makes that case in electoral terms. Failing to heed it does not just damage Labour’s electoral prospects but also feeds the forces that would undermine democracy.

Adopting the rhetoric of fear, scarcity and exclusion has not neutralised extremism. It has normalised it. Labour’s recent drift to the right on cultural issues compounds Reform’s narrative that traditional parties can’t be trusted. Under Starmer, Labour’s values have faded in and out of sight depending on its audience and perceived electoral expediency. In a low trust environment, clarity of principle is not a luxury. It is the currency of credibility.

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The party’s handling of the two child benefit cap is emblematic. Scrapping a Conservative policy that drove hundreds of thousands of children into poverty should have been an early priority.

Instead, Downing Street resisted, disciplined those who spoke out, and missed a moment of moral and political clarity, only to be eventually forced into the correct position under pressure from Labour MPs. The lesson absorbed by many voters was that Labour could no longer be trusted to care.

Then, instead of a courageous and principled stand against the massacre of innocents in Gaza, came a crackdown on those who protested on their behalf. Similar missteps over climate followed and now it is about to make the same mistake again, with its plans to limit jury trials. Another indefensible policy that at some point it will have to reverse.

When Labour blurs its values, it weakens itself further. Reform does not win because its policies are coherent. It wins because it fills a vacuum, telling a story about betrayal and belonging while Labour hedges and equivocates. When Labour borrows its language, or appears embarrassed by its own moral inheritance, it validates the claim that politics is hollow and transactional.

This polling provides the evidence to back the moral case for Labour to return to its core values.  There are millions of voters demanding to be seen and hungry for authenticity and integrity. 

If Labour continues to believe that its route to victory lies in sounding more like Reform, it will succeed only in shrinking itself, morally and electorally. If, instead, it chooses to build a confident progressive alternative, rooted in honesty, inclusion and compassion, it could unlock millions of votes and tap into a majority that is already there, waiting to be mobilised.