Drowning in Denial: One in Five Homes in Reform UK Heartlands Could Be Under Water Within 25 Years

More than 700,000 homes across the ten English councils now governed by Reform UK are projected to face medium or higher flood risk by the middle of the century, exclusive analysis of national modelling by Byline Times and Bylines Network shows.

That is roughly one in five households in the party’s local strongholds – communities stretching from Lincolnshire’s sinking coastline and Lancashire’s Morecambe Bay to the Humber Estuary and the Thames-Medway delta in Kent.

The contradiction could hardly be sharper. While Reform rails against Net Zero targets and has pledged to scrap local climate-resilience programmes, its own councils sit in some of England’s most flood-exposed zones.

Commenting on these findings, MPs, local councillors and major British environmental groups said that Reform UK’s stance would be disastrous for voters in its own constituencies.

Olivia Blake MP, Chair of the new cross-party Climate and Nature Crisis Caucus in parliament consisting of Labour, Conservative and Green Party politicians, said: “It’s cutting your nose off to spite your face. Reducing flood defence spending is not something that I would be encouraging any area to do when we’ve seen one-in-100 year flood events happening much, much more regularly up and down the country. They will face angry communities if they do not take the right actions on these issues.” She condemned politicians who make climate and nature issues part of a “culture war”.

Standing out in Aviva’s Building Future Communities 2025 report are Lincolnshire for “severe exposure along England’s east coast around the Wash”, and Lancashire, where homes at risk around Morecambe Bay could rise by up to 34 percentage points by mid-century, stand out.

“Part of the district ward I represent in Lincoln has suffered flooding for three consecutive winters, with some residents forced to evacuate their homes in 2023” said Lincolnshire Councillor Christopher Martin of the Liberal Democrats. “This is a historic and recurring issue, disproportionately affecting one of the most deprived communities in the city.”

According to Aviva’s national analysis, based on the Environment Agency’s National Assessment of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk in England 2024, the number of English homes facing flood risk is expected to increase by around 27% – from 6.3 million today to 8 million by the 2050s.

Coastal exposure is intensifying fastest: 2.4 million properties at risk now climb to 3.2 million by mid-century as sea levels rise and storm surges strengthen. Surface-water flooding – when intense rain overwhelms drains and streets – is also accelerating, with the most exposed category forecast to grow by two-thirds.

Yet Reform’s leadership continues to dismiss climate science as ‘green hysteria’. Yet by the 2050s, climate-driven flooding across its ten authorities could impose average yearly damages of about £285 million – equivalent to roughly £7 billion in cumulative losses by 2050 if no new defences are built.

These are not one-off disasters but the expected annual toll of repeated events on homes, roads and local infrastructure. Without stronger defences and smarter planning, much of that burden will fall on residents and already-stretched councils.

As seas rise and rainfall intensifies, Reform UK’s choice to abandon climate action will test not only its ideology – but whether its new heartlands remain habitable.

---

Calculating the Risks for Reform Areas

Using Aviva’s modelling based on Environment Agency data, we re-aggregated 10 km risk grids to local-authority boundaries for the ten councils that swung to Reform UK in May’s local elections: Kent, Lincolnshire, Lancashire, Doncaster, County Durham, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Staffordshire, North Northamptonshire and West Northamptonshire. Housing-stock totals from the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government were used to estimate the number of homes facing medium-or-higher risk by the 2050s.

The results: around 713,000 homes – roughly one in five across the ten Reform councils – will face significant flood exposure by mid-century, with the highest concentrations in Lincolnshire, Lancashire, Kent and Doncaster. Applying DEFRA and insurer benchmarks for average yearly flood damages (£200–£600 per at-risk home) yields an estimated £285 million in annual losses – around £7 billion by 2050.

These figures represent expected average yearly costs under a 2050s climate scenario – illustrating the scale of financial exposure if resilience investment stalls.

---

The Coastal Frontlines

The numbers tell one story; the map another – England’s east and north-west coasts glowing deep red, the places where Reform UK now governs and where the water is rising fastest.

Lincolnshire: the Wash and the sinking coast

Council leader Sean Matthews has vowed to “lie in front of bulldozers” to block Net Zero infrastructure projects, including new pylons and solar farms. The council has also abolished its flood committee, a move opposition parties warned would hamper coordination across agencies.

Aviva’s maps identify “severe exposure along England’s east coast around the Wash, impacting the Lincolnshire area.” Low-lying farmland and seaside towns such as Boston, Skegness and Mablethorpe already depend on tidal embankments built for a cooler world. By mid-century about 22% of homes in the county – roughly 84,000 properties – could lie inside a flood-risk zone.

“I have no faith in the new Reform regime that they will be able to get results on these complex issues as they are so heavily focussed on short term wins to prove themselves”, said local councillor Christopher Martin. “This will likely be a serious incident in our future with them in control, and I worry deeply my community will suffer more than it already has, but am sure some of the coastal families in the county will be unable to sell their homes as a result of these reports or will lose significant value in those assets, that will compound the issue county-wide.”

Lancashire: Morecambe Bay and the north-west surge

Reform’s new administration removed climate change from all cabinet portfolios, leaving no councillor directly responsible for environmental or climate policy. One cabinet member dismissed Net Zero targets as “unachievable” and harmful to household finances.

Lancashire is projected to see one of England’s steepest increases in flood exposure – up to 34 percentage points in the Morecambe Bay area by 2050. Around 134,000 homes, or 23% of the county’s housing stock, are expected to face flooding each year under a 2050s climate scenario.

Kent: Thames and Medway under pressure

In Kent, Reform councillors rescinded the county’s 2019 climate-emergency declaration and moved to scrap its Net Zero target altogether.

The motion, carried 50 votes to 21, claimed earlier climate action had “no discernible effect on global temperatures” and accused previous administrations of “scaring young people.” Yet Kent sits between the Thames and the Medway, where tidal surges, heavy rainfall and urban runoff combine. About 23% of homes – roughly 166,000 properties – fall into medium-or-higher flood-risk categories.

City of Doncaster: the Humber floodplain

Reform councillors in Doncaster have mirrored the party’s national climate-rollback agenda. A local motion opposing Net Zero and climate action, championed by Reform UK councillor Rachel Reed, directly inspired the national party’s position.

Doncaster lies on the Humber floodplain, where the Don, Ouse and Trent rivers converge before reaching the sea. Aviva’s analysis marks the Humber Estuary as an area of “pronounced risk”. By 2050 around 18% of homes – roughly 26,000 properties – could face recurring flood damage.

Together, these four councils account for over half of all projected flood exposure across Reform-run authorities and a similar share of the estimated £7 billion bill by mid-century.

---

The Inland Flood Zones

If the coastline shows where the water is creeping in, the interior shows where it can no longer drain away. Reform UK’s inland councils sit across river basins and urban catchments already struggling to cope with heavier rainfall and rapid development.

Aviva’s modelling warns that surface-water flooding – sudden deluges that overwhelm drains, streets and basements – is now the fastest-growing source of flood damage in England. The report finds that 83% of properties exposed to surface-water risk remain unprotected.

Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire: the Trent basin

In Derbyshire, Reform leaders scrapped the county’s Climate Change Committee and rejected Net Zero commitments outright. “They’re putting our lives at risk,” warned a former committee member. Nottinghamshire has not yet passed a formal motion, but senior councillors have echoed the national anti–Net Zero line. At one meeting on carbon neutrality, transport and environment cabinet member Bert Bingham dismissed climate change as “a hoax” to applause from Reform colleagues.

By 2050 around 65,000 homes in Derbyshire and 66,000 in Nottinghamshire – roughly 17% of households in each county – could face medium-or-higher flood risk.

Staffordshire: the Tame and Trent confluence

In Staffordshire, councillors voted in October 2025 to overturn the county’s 2019 climate-emergency declaration, promising a new “environmental strategy” centred on “value for money.” Reform cabinet member Andrew Mynors told the chamber that “the rhetoric around decarbonisation has acted as a distraction.”

By the 2050s, about 68,000 homes (17% of the total) are expected to fall within flood-risk zones.

County Durham: rivers and rising seas

In the north-east, Durham County Council voted in July 2025 to abolish its climate-emergency declaration and replace it with what leaders called a “care emergency” – a move condemned by opposition councillors and scientists as “reckless.”

Aviva’s projections place roughly 44,000 homes (around 17%) in flood-risk categories by mid-century. The new Reform administration later reaffirmed its stance, insisting the climate policy had been “virtue signalling.”

North and West Northamptonshire: England’s fastest-urbanising floodplains

West Northamptonshire quickly followed suit, voting to erase Net Zero goals from its local strategy and reframing sustainability purely around short-term cost savings. Neighbouring North Northamptonshire then announced a review that effectively shelved its 2030 Net Zero ambition.

Across the two authorities, around 60,000 homes combined (17%) fall within flood-risk zones.

Together these inland councils account for almost half of the exposure in Reform’s strongholds – yet they lack the coastal defences or ring-fenced resilience funding shoreline authorities receive. The danger here is cumulative: repeated flash floods and drainage failures could impose long-term strain on local infrastructure and insurance provision – a creeping crisis already visible in rising clean-up costs and claims.

Rosie Wrighting, Labour MP for Kettering, said: “When I held a meeting for flood-hit Kettering residents earlier this year after Storm Bert, I heard their anger and the impact it had on their lives. That’s why I pushed so hard for flood defence funding and I was delighted to secure more than £500,000 for schemes in my constituency… Reform’s political games are dangerous and will not help communities like Kettering.”

---

The Bill

Flooding across the ten councils now run by Reform UK could impose annual losses as high as £300 million by the 2050s – a slow, predictable drain on homes, roads and local infrastructure rather than the aftermath of one catastrophic storm.

National analyses by DEFRA, the Environment Agency, the National Audit Office and the Association of British Insurers suggest England’s total annual flood losses could rise to between £2 billion and £3.6 billion by mid-century. Scaled to the 700,000 at-risk homes across Reform-controlled areas, the share of that burden equates to roughly a quarter of a billion pounds each year – concentrated most heavily in Kent, Lancashire and Lincolnshire, where rising seas meet rapid development.

For cash-strapped local authorities, the cumulative impact to 2050 approaches what they currently spend in a decade on all capital investment combined – an erosion of public wealth that emergency grants cannot offset.

Anna Roguski, climate campaigner for Friends of the Earth, said: “These projections lay bare the real consequences of climate denial. Hundreds of thousands of families living in areas governed by a party that dismisses the crisis threatening their homes. Flood risk isn’t ideology, it’s physics – rising seas and intensifying rainfall won’t pause for political positioning. These threats will become more severe unless we slash emissions and accelerate the transition to a greener future. When elected representatives ignore climate science, they’re gambling with their constituents’ futures – their homes, their livelihoods and their safety. That’s not just irresponsible, it’s indefensible.”

Insurance data sharpens the picture. Average payouts for a flooded property run between £30,000 and £40,000, yet the Flood Re scheme that keeps premiums affordable will close in 2039 – just as risks peak. Without large-scale adaptation, many households could become uninsurable, leaving those communities to shoulder permanent economic loss.

For Reform-run councils, the arithmetic is brutally simple: stop denying climate change and begin investing in the urgent action needed for climate resilience, or doom residents to rising risks and costs from damage, insurance and repair that increases due to Reform’s negligence.

---

The Political Reckoning

Reform UK’s first experiments in local government are unfolding on the front line of England’s climate crisis, yet the party’s national platform rejects the very policies designed to prevent it. Its manifesto pledges to scrap green levies, cut funding for environmental programmes and abolish the Climate Change Committee – the statutory body overseeing Britain’s emissions targets.

That agenda would strip councils of the few tools they possess to adapt. Local flood-management budgets rely on central government grants and planning rules requiring developers to install sustainable drainage systems and property-level flood resilience. Weakening those standards would allow new housing to sprawl across floodplains without modern protections.

The result: more residents paying out of pocket for repairs, more councils begging for emergency relief, and the same multi-billion-pound bill falling on taxpayers rather than prevention. 

According to Reshima Sharma, deputy head of politics at Greenpeace UK: “Just like the UK’s knackered flood defences, Reform’s policies simply do not hold water. As flooding worsens, people will naturally look to their councils and national politicians for protection. All Reform has to offer are populist fantasies that protect polluters – these won’t help communities facing flooding or picking up the tab for destroyed businesses and homes.”

Additional reporting by Josiah Mortimer.

This article is a collaboration between Byline Times, an independent national investigative newspaper, and Bylines Network, a collection of local and regional online newspapers that supports citizen journalism.