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Even during the 2003 Iraq war, the people of the Middle East did not appear to feel as terrified and alarmed as they have been since Israel’s aggression against Iran kicked off on 12 June.
What is extraordinary is that this is barely reflected in the western media obsessed with the threat to Israel or western interests.
Many American and European actors appear to have forgotten the horrors of war, and even the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan. But the people of the Middle East who have endured so many forever wars, often promoted by western powers, have a very sharp understanding of the ugliness of conflict and how their consequences last decades.
It is the people of the region who are on the frontline with the most to lose. Iranian and Israeli civilians are scared, with no idea how this ends? Civilian infrastructure is being smashed. The death count mounts daily.
But above all, Israel has not halted its atrocities against Palestinians in Gaza, where more die every day than in Israel and Iran. They are still being bombed and starved as Israel’s genocide continues. Palestinians, not their Israeli settler neighbours, are under lockdown in the West Bank, with its economy on the brink of collapse. How long will that lockdown last?
Israel, and in particular Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, appears out of control, unwilling even to listen to its allies. Israel has been bombing Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen with no consequence, and now Iran.
US President Donald Trump has given him the green light.
The Iranian regime has its own awful record, backing the Assad regime for decades, and undermining the security of Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, Palestine and elsewhere. Neither Israeli nor Iranian governments have demonstrated respect for civilian life or human rights of others. International law is simply not at the races.
The fact that Netanyahu is wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes and crimes against humanity is glossed over in the US and Europe, but in the Middle East everyone is aware of the double standard and the threat he poses.
Residents in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states are scared that this war could spread. If the US does get involved, then Iran might target its neighbours across the Gulf in retaliation, or try to block the straights of Hormuz where 20% of the world’s oil passes. Iran has an extensive network of sleeper agents across the region who could be activated.
The Nuclear Fear
Another major fear is nuclear fallout from attacks on Iranian nuclear infrastructure on air and water. Iran has a nuclear reactor on the Gulf at Bushehr. What happens if Israel decides to destroy it? The Israeli leadership has not categorically ruled out striking Bushehr. Fallout could hit GCC states, including contaminating sea water vital for their desalination plants.
The leadership in GCC states are acutely aware of this. Many of them are not historically friendly with Iran but have a working relationship. Some might like the Iranian regime to be weakened but not at the risk of wider conflagration, hence they condemned the Israeli strikes.
Oman, which hosted the US-Iran talks, was the first to do so referring to Israel’s “barbaric military attack” on Iran. Nearly every government outside of Israel wanted the US-Iran talks to reach successful conclusion, so blame Netanyahu for having bombed the negotiations out of existence.
Others are also affected. Jordan lies on the flightpath of Iran’s missiles and had to close its airspace. It has also faced criticism for destroying some of Iran’s drones.
Iraq’s fragile stability will be upended if this continues. The Iraqi government has security ties with the US, but Iran has huge influence there, and could push powerful sympathetic militias, Popular Mobilisation Forces, to hit American and British interests in the country.
The Iran dynamic will also unsettle both Syria and Lebanon, at a time when both are facing very delicate phases of recovery and transition. Hizbollah, significantly weakened last year by Israeli strikes, is staying out of the conflict, but what guarantee is there that this will remain the case?
Syria has been the victim of scores of Israeli strikes especially since the fall of Assad in December, though which western leader ever referred to the Syrian right to self-defence?
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And if oil prices rise much further this will hit everyone in the region. For the poorer nations of the region, such as Yemen and Egypt, higher costs is not an inconvenience but potentially a life altering threat. Tourism receipts will collapse. Refugee flows could also undermine stability once again.
Added to all this is the plague of uncertainty emanating from the White House. Trump basks in the uncertainly he creates around whether the US will, or will not, join strikes on Iran? It is not reassuring to those in the region who crave leadership and statesmanship.
This just adds to the escalating fears of peoples desperate for their region to enjoy an era of peace, prosperity and security. They know they will live with the consequences of this long after western leaders and media long lose interest.