Jordan Official Threatens to ‘Mobilise the Army’ If Israel Expels Palestinians

Jordan is bracing for a nightmare scenario in which Israel is expected to annex much of the occupied West Bank and thereby torpedo an already fragile peace treaty between the two countries that has lasted for more than 30 years.

The stakes could hardly be higher.

For Jordan the latest alarm bell was Israel’s decision last week to approve the building of 22 new settlements in the West Bank, the largest extension in decades.  An estimated 3.3 million Palestinians live alongside them.

Some of them will be constructed in the Jordan Valley, separating the West Bank from the Kingdom, along a 400 Km (245-mile) border with Israel. Others will be in areas deep inside the West Bank, which in all negotiation frameworks have been considered areas for a designated Palestinian State, along with Gaza.

In Jerusalem Defence Minister Israel Katz said the move “prevents the establishment of a Palestinian state that would endanger Israel.”

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However, Jordan sees it as a further step towards annexing Judea and Samaria, biblical names for the West Bank, occupied by Israel since 1967. 

It fears that such a move would be followed by the forced expulsion of huge numbers of Palestinians into Jordan, risking massive political destabilisation and destroying all remaining hopes of a two-state solution.

The government in Amman would not sit by and let that happen. As one official told me:  “Any forced expulsion of Palestinians and we will mobilise the army.”

It is unlikely, though, that such rhetoric will deter Israel and its Far Right ministers whose influence has increased steadily under Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and who have frequently referred to Jordan as Palestine.

If Israel pushes ahead with annexation, as expected, Jordanian officials believe it would initially take over around 60% of the West Bank (the so-called Area C) followed by Area B, giving them a further 22% of the territory. 

Area A would then be subject to negotiation, with the Palestinians represented by a corrupt and moribund authority. Any emerging entity would be forced to seek support from Jordan to survive. 

Jordan has long called for a two-state solution to ensure lasting peace.

The debt-riddled country is grappling with yawning poverty and unemployment. Amman has repeatedly said it would reject such an arrangement out of hand. 

There will be no Palestinian State in Jordan and no tampering with Jordan’s historic role in guarding both Muslim and Christian shrines in East Jerusalem.

And, while anxious not to create panic, the Government has quietly sent reinforcements to the Jordan valley. 

It is monitoring the number of Palestinians crossing the rickety Allenby Bridge, linking the Kingdom with the West Bank.

In Amman the hope is that Donald Trump will become ever more frustrated with Netanyahu, whose hardline policies are ruining the President’s dream of economic prosperity for the oil-rich region – and of course for his country and family.  

Jordan is also counting on Saudi Arabia to stick to its promise to reject normalization with Israel, unless Israel opens a clear road to Palestinian statehood.

But the Arab states have never been much interested in unity, more so these days.

Gulf heavyweights Saudi Arabia and the UAE appear to have cut their own business deals with the US to buy stability – including heaping lavish presents on Mr Trump himself.  

And the new Islamist leader in Syria, Ahmed Sharaa, has been welcomed into the American fold, despite his terrorist past, and is now discussing a security deal with Israel before eventual normalisation.

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“Amidst all these geopolitical changes, Jordan appears to have lost its strategic depth. Our back is exposed,” says political analyst, researcher and university professor Hassan Barari, who completed some of his university studies in Israel when relations between the two countries were warmer.

“The stability of Jordan was always part of Israeli security,” he said. “But the Israel we knew when we signed the peace treaty has changed dramatically. Hardline right-wing policies have taken over in the interest of occupation, settlements and the fact that the Palestinian demographic bomb (threat) can only be defused by expelling Palestinians to Jordan.”

Any forced expulsion will be treated as a declaration of war. And Jordan will retaliate. 

But that is easier said than done.  

Although the Jordan/ Israel peace treaty precludes either side taking measures that endanger the security and stability of the other, some 750,000 Palestinians are living in the West Bank with Jordanian citizenship, dating back to the years when Jordan ruled the entity from 1950-1967.

Much as it might want to, Jordan cannot legally reject the entry of its own citizens, swelling the number of Jordanians of Palestinian origin.

There are no easy solutions in the Middle East.  

Even so, for 30 years Jordan has navigated calmly through some pretty choppy waters.  But the tension over this issue is real and rising.

Gone are the days when Israeli visitors could visit Jordan and feel welcome.

They no longer come – and Jordanians who speak kindly of Israel are rudely condemned as “normalizers.”

Some American businesses are being boycotted since the start of the war on Gaza, because of their support to Israel.

Over the last year hundreds have been arrested for demonstrating outside the Israeli embassy.

As the summer arrives, Jordan is quiet. But many are asking for how long?