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Brits tell pollsters they are against high immigration — but they also favour a youth mobility deal with the European Union and want to join the EU single market even if it means accepting the free movement of persons.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s recently elected Labour Government is unpopular and the UK economy is flatlining, so, could joining the EU single market be Labour’s new signature policy?
Maybe, but it’s not straightforward.
The EU/UK post-Brexit Trade and Cooperation Agreement provides for review of its trade provisions in 2025. The EU and the UK are limbering up for negotiations.
Starmer insists former Conservative PM Boris Johnson “botched” the existing trade deal and that he could do better. But Starmer has ruled out joining the EU, customs union or single market, and rejects the free movement of persons.
After a string of political own goals Starmer’s Government has seen its popularity nose-dive. The UK’s predominantly Conservative press have had a field day. Even insiders fear that Labour may be destined to be a one-term Government.
In the run-up to the General Election Labour painted itself into a corner over the taxes they would raise to put the public finances in order. The promised reset with the EU looks likely to be going the same way because Starmer has ruled out the closer links with the EU which most Brits and the EU seem to want.
Starmer Wants a Food Standards Deal, but It Would Have Strings Attached
Starmer wants a UK/EU deal on food standards, to reverse the decline in UK food exports to the EU that has followed Brexit. But the EU will only accept that if the UK aligns with EU rules and accepts the oversight of EU judges.
Other must-haves on the Brussels side are a youth mobility scheme and maintaining current levels of EU access to UK fishing grounds.
Starmer has not ruled out a role for the EU Courts in a food standards deal, but he has so far rejected a youth mobility scheme because it would cross his red line on free movement. Polling suggests that 59% of Brits favour the EU’s proposal on youth mobility, despite 68% thinking that immigration is too high.
Accepting EU demands on fishing could be tricky for Starmer. Any concessions on fish would be bad political news at home but concessions on Scottish fish would be particularly bad, with recent polling on Scottish independence showing those in favour three points ahead at 50%.
Starmer’s Red Lines on European Links Could Be Allowed to Fade Over This Parliament
Adding preliminary talks on a UK/EU single market deal to the UK/EU reset negotiations on food standards, youth mobility etc, would match what pollsters tell us most Brits want to hear and hearten the British business community. It could also give a political reboot to the reset negotiations.
Starmer has no current electoral mandate to take the UK into the single market or say yes to freedom of movement. But that need not rule out UK and EU trade negotiators exploring an outline single market agreement (SMA) for the longer term while they hammer out a food standards agreement in the medium term.
Talks on an SMA could clash with talks on a US trade agreement (chlorinated chicken etc) — but so could the deal on food standards Starmer is keen to strike.
SMA talks would also rub Donald Trump up the wrong way temperamentally — he loathes the EU.
That argues for the EU and the UK proceeding with caution because they both want to dodge the tariffs Trump is threatening to impose on friend and foe alike.
Starmer wants close trade links with both the EU and the US and that will mean a lot of political and diplomatic juggling and some risk-taking too.
Musk and Trump are stalking Starmer on social media like playground bullies, and putting too many eggs in the US basket would not be wise.
The Main Objection to a Single Market Agreement From the UK’s Point of View Is a Democratic One
An SMA would require the UK to apply new EU single market laws without having a say in their content.
Starmer is on record as saying “…we will not be a rule-taker. The rules and laws of this country will be made in parliament according to the national interest.” The present writer has argued that Starmer is right on this.
EU law single market laws cannot be dismissed as technical trade rules nobody cares about — some regulate subject matter of political and economic importance, such as take-overs and mergers, financial services, and the rights of patients to receive health care in other EU countries if their own health services can’t cope.
Most Brits Seem Willing to Accept the Trade-off Between Economic Advantage and Democratic Control
Polls show absolute majorities for the UK joining the single market, accepting that that involves the free movement of persons.
Even those intending to vote for Reform UK, Nigel Farage’s populist right-wing party aiming to replace the Conservatives,