COP29: Drastic Action Is Needed to Bring Global Climate Systems Back From the Brink of Collapse

It feels like a long time since the UK hosted the relatively well-received COP26 in Glasgow. That event marked the first time negotiators explicitly referenced the need to “phase down unabated coal” and “phase-out fossil fuel subsidies”.

Since then countries have largely failed to meet their commitments. There is a “massive gap between rhetoric and reality”, argues the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) that must be closed by new climate pledges and implemented by governments. 

Many countries are not on track to meet current, inadequate, commitments, with policy projections from G20 nations exceeding them by a collective one billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions (in carbon dioxide equivalent, CO2e) in 2030.

In the meantime global temperatures have risen sharply. 

2023 saw a rapid, and sustained, rise in global temperatures that went far beyond the more incremental rise seen in previous years. 2024 is on track to become the hottest year on record. 

Not all of this increase can be attributed to rising emissions. Some may be temporary: the transition from La Niña to El Niño conditions significantly influenced the global temperature rise in 2023. 

But many scientists believe these factors do not explain the scale of the temperature rise, raising alarm at an unprecedented drop in nature’s ability to absorb carbon.  

The planet’s oceans, forests, soils and other natural carbon sinks have to this point absorbed about half of all human emissions. But as the Earth heats up scientists believe those crucial processes are breaking down.

Preliminary findings show the amount of carbon absorbed by land collapsed in 2023. Forests, plants and soil absorbed almost no carbon, an unprecedented outcome. 

There are similar warning signs at sea. Greenland’s glaciers and Arctic ice sheets are melting faster than expected, disrupting the Gulf Stream ocean current and slowing the rate at which oceans absorb carbon. 

This sudden collapse of carbon sinks was not factored into climate models, and would rapidly accelerate global warming if sustained. 

“Terrestrial ecosystems are losing their carbon store and carbon uptake capacity, oceans are also showing signs of instability,” Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, told an event at New York Climate Week in September.

“Nature has so far balanced our abuse. This is coming to an end.”

Philippe Ciais, researcher at the French Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Sciences, argues that “in the northern hemisphere, where you have more than half of CO2 uptake, we have seen a decline trend in absorption for eight years. There is no good reason to believe it will bounce back”.

The consequences for climate targets are stark. Even a modest weakening of nature’s ability to absorb carbon would mean the world would have to make much deeper cuts to greenhouse gas emissions to achieve net zero. 

The weakening of land sinks – which has so far been regional – also has the effect of cancelling out nations’ progress on decarbonisation and progress towards climate goals. 

This raises the stakes in Baku. Developing countries have been clear that pledges to transition away from fossil fuels must be fleshed out, and commitments made by developed countries honoured and furthered. 

They will welcome Keir Starmer’s deepened commitment, an emissions cut of 81% compared with 1990 levels by 2035, in line with the recommendations of the Climate Change Committee. 

But campaigners point to the need for action: “If these targets are to be credible, they must be backed by a clear plan to ensure they are met. The UK’s existing 2030 commitment is currently way off course”, argues Friends of the Earth’s head of campaigns, Rosie Downes. 

There is also no getting away from the impact of the US election. Donald Trump has signalled an end to US participation in the fight against climate change. His agenda risks adding several billion tonnes of heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere, further imperilling goals that governments are already failing to meet. 

US campaigners take hope from the fact that the clean energy transition is underway; Trump can slow that transition but cannot end it. “No matter what Trump may say, the shift to clean energy is unstoppable,” said Gina McCarthy, former climate adviser to Biden and co-chair of the America Is All In coalition of climate-concerned states and cities.

In the meantime US negotiator John Podesta said at an opening press conference that Biden was “still in the White House”, his team fully engaged in making Baku a success. A finance deal “needs to be realistic but we think we can get that done,” he said.

Along with emissions this COP is about money. The New Quantitative Collective Goal on finance will determine how much climate finance will flow from the rich to the developing world after the current $100 billion a year deal expires in 2025.

Developing nations are pushing for $1 trillion a year. That is unlikely, but even the $300 billion mooted as more realistic may be too much for wealthy countries to consider. A compromise will likely be found by including as much in the eventual total as possible – loans from multilateral development banks and private sector cash. 

COP29 was damaged before it began, given questions over the motives of host country Azerbaijan and the embarrassment of its president being filmed agreeing to facilitate fossil fuel deals during the summit. 

The election of Trump, ill-timed collapse of the German government and failure to attend by many Western leaders all added to a pre-summit sense that expectations were low. 

But COP29 is still this year’s most important forum for climate commitments to be furthered. Given the growing gap between scientific reality and global action, and the new threat of inaction or increased emissions from the US, negotiators must do all they can to deliver ambitious outcomes on emissions and finance. 

Britain at least can hold its head high now it has a Prime Minister not only willing to attend, but willing to make new, ambitious commitments at the very start of the COP; a stark contrast from Rishi Sunak’s lukewarm climate action. The rest of the world needs to catch up.