Moldovan Dreams and Georgian Nightmares: Putin Meddles in European ‘Swing States’

In the presidential palace of Tbilisi in the heart of the South-Caucasus country of Georgia, tension hangs in the air. The pro-European President, Salome Zourabichvili, is about to make a statement.

A day prior, the Central Election Commission (CEC) announced that the ruling pro-Russian Georgian Dream party had won 54.08% of the vote, while a coalition of four pro-European opposition parties had won 37.58% of the vote in the Parliamentary elections.

Over the past three years, the Georgian Dream party has become a Georgian nightmare. It has systematically hijacked the country’s democratic institutions and sabotaged European integration before becoming openly pro-Russian in 2021.

Breaking with this pro-Russian government, President Salome Zourabichvili declared in the palace ballroom, “Accepting these results is accepting Russian control over our nation”. For Zourabichvili, “the current election crisis goes beyond domestic political disputes”, framing it as part of a “high-intensity hybrid war” orchestrated by Russia.

Although exit polls indicated that the pro-European opposition was on the verge of victory, the CEC results revealed a different story, which opposition leaders denounced as manipulated. 

A senior opposition source told Byline Times that “the fraud was clearly much higher than the 5% initially estimated”. Reports of vote tampering were widespread.

The civic monitoring group WeVote.ge documented a series of irregularities, from ballots pre-marked for Georgian Dream to instances of voter identification cards being confiscated at polling stations. Some voters were also in possession of photocopies of IDs or papers containing the personal number of another citizen.

The inspector of Wevote.ge, Londa Toloraia,  raised special concerns about the violation of ballot secrecy through electronic voting machines.

Russian operatives may have infiltrated the servers according to Bloomberg. Over 1,100 complaints have been filed with the CEC, with 246 polling stations directly challenged, representing nearly 400,000 voters.“The practices observed were supported by more than 370 photos and videos, as well as testimonies from observers and citizens,” Toloraia told Byline Times.

This could potentially affect the election outcome, as the President noted in a statement to the press.  “This is not a minor issue—it’s serious enough to call into question the entire election outcome,” the President warned. “This manoeuvre suspiciously aligns with Dmitry Medvedev’s instructions,” she said.

The political analyst Romain Le Quiniou, director of the think tank Euro Creative, analysed the broader pattern of Russian interference in key “swing states” for Russia across the region. “Russia has never been as open and transparent about its manipulation of elections”, Le Quiniou observed.

He added that Georgia’s situation is unique, as the ruling Georgian Dream party often preempts Moscow’s interests. “It is likely that there are Russian advisers in Georgia. But the Georgian Dream is already anticipating Moscow’s interests” he said. 

The overlap between Georgian Dream’s agenda and Russian interests creates a favourable environment for Moscow’s influence “The party has the means to disseminate narratives that serve Russia, making further Russian intervention easier”.

But another similar scenario unfolded a week before these events in Georgia. On 20 October, Moldovans were called to vote.

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Moldova: the Other Swing State

Since gaining independence in 1991, Moldova has faced various forms of Russian interference.  “The Republic of Moldova always was under the hybrid rule of the Russian Federation, in order to impose its domination over this country,” Minister of Defense Anatolie Nosatîi told me in an interview in October 2023.

The most striking example is the recent elections and referendum on 20 October, which produced a shocking result. The referendum, which sought to embed the country’s EU aspirations into its constitution, passed narrowly with 50.38% of the vote. The victory margin — just 11,000 votes — was secured largely due to the Moldovan diaspora’s participation.

The Moldovan government, independent observers, and international partners all raised concerns over substantial Russian interference. Authorities claimed that criminal networks tied to Russia attempted to manipulate the vote by bribing citizens. It was reported that around 130,000 individuals were offered bribes to sway the referendum in favour of a “no” vote and 300,000 votes were targeted for manipulation, representing nearly 20% of the total ballots cast

Moldova’s fugitive oligarch, Ilan Shor, allegedly transferred $39 million through Russian-linked channels to fund the scheme, primarily using connections in Transnistria, the Russian-backed breakaway region.

Analysts warn that the presidential election poses significant risks for Moldova. If pro-Russian forces win, Moscow may leverage Moldova to destabilize the region further, potentially opening a second front in the Ukraine conflict.  Romain Le Quiniou, a political analyst, “the latest Moldovan elections are also a Russian victory because Russia managed to influence the ballot and Sandu lost legitimacy in domestic policy.”

The electoral controversies in Georgia and Moldova demonstrate Russia’s efforts to maintain its influence over the former Soviet republics as they seek closer ties with the European Union. These elections, marred by Russian interference, fraud and disinformation campaigns, reveal the Kremlin’s use of hybrid warfare tactics to achieve its objectives.

In the thick of the protest against fraudulent results in Georgia, Tamari Gogoshvili, a young and ambitious university student, explained why she felt compelled to join protests against Russian interference. “If we accept this now, we will end up like Belarus, under Russia’s influence. This is the moment we either choose Europe, or we go back to the modern USSR”, she said.