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This article was first published in the October 2024 monthly news magazine of Byline Times. To stay ahead of the curve, subscribe now to the print edition and get 50+ pages of exclusive content delivered straight to your door or inbox.
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In November 2022, just after Elon Musk purchased the social media platform then known as Twitter, I argued in these pages that the world’s richest man was shifting away from being a profit-motivated and, sometimes visionary, entrepreneur into a geopolitical propagandist allied in common cause with Vladimir Putin’s Russia, China under Xi Jinping, and other authoritarian nations, against the West and the dollar.
At the time, it seemed an extreme argument to some, while others recognised the same signs I did.
That hypothesis now appears to have been borne out.
Since then, Musk has become more extreme in his stances – most recently attempting political interventions in the domestic affairs of the UK and Brazil in the name of ‘free speech’. This included his claim, in response to the UK’s race riots this summer, that civil war was “inevitable” and attempts to institute direct exchanges on X (formerly Twitter) with the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer.
Some believe that he has simply lost his marbles or been “radicalised by his own platform”. But the roots of this are much deeper.
Musk’s wealth and power now exert a gravitational warping along multiple geopolitical axes. These include: Russia’s projection of power into the West, and its capture of the US Republican Party; his ideas about money, inflation, and the US Federal Reserve; his capacity to shape the information environment through X; his strategic control over space capability and internet communications through his firm SpaceX; his control over a major US automaker, Tesla, with a strategic position in electric mobility; and significant investments in AI development through X, xAI, and Tesla.
A Political and Cultural Alignment
A primary purpose of Putin’s war in Ukraine is to project power into the West – forcing a choice between continued US hegemony and a new ‘multipolar’ global order. As this conflict has become increasingly acute, Musk’s worldview has converged with Putin’s in important ways.
In the West, political identity has become fully aligned with cultural identity.
As the political scientist Lilliana Mason has observed, we can now learn much about people’s political beliefs from what neighbourhood they choose to live in, and learn most of the rest by noting what kind of car they drive, and where they choose to shop for groceries.
As political stakes have risen so high as to determine the very survival of Western democracy, the same high stakes and stark choices have also been mirrored in the realm of culture.
Musk has repeatedly taken Putin’s side, both politically and culturally.
He followed his purchase of X by endorsing Donald Trump for re-election in November, as well as amplifying a multitude of pro-Russian voices. He has repeatedly asserted that the US is on the brink of bankruptcy, and that the question isn’t whether America will default on its debt but when. He has endorsed cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Dogecoin as alternatives to the dollar and the US Federal Reserve, and repeated libertarian talking points about “government having a monopoly on violence”.
It would be difficult to concoct positions better aligned with the Russian President’s.
Shared Vision of the ‘Noosphere’
Crucially, it is in their visions of the future where Musk and Putin may most converge – and it is here that we also depart from Western frames of reference.
‘Russian Cosmism’ has been described by scholar Marlene Laruelle as a key but under-explored heart of Russian nationalism, rooted in the idea of man’s destiny to ‘evolve’. Laruelle’s excellent free e-book explains that Russian Cosmism is based on the idea that man’s destiny is to explore space and to extend consciousness to the stars.
If this sounds familiar, it’s because Musk – and his collaborators, Jack Dorsey and Peter Thiel – have repeatedly used this phrasing.
Musk has also made a habit of quoting Russian cosmist and early rocket scientist Konstantin Tsiolkovsky’s line, that “the Earth is the cradle of humanity, but mankind cannot stay in the cradle forever”.
I was in the audience in April 2022 at a TED Conference in Vancouver on the morning Musk announced his intention to buy the then Twitter. He articulated a motivation that he has repeated in other arenas – his desire to “build a future that you can get up in the morning and be excited about”, adding that, “life shouldn’t just be about solving one miserable problem after another.” Indeed, that vision has some resonance. But it is especially aligned with Russian Cosmism and the idea of ‘evolving mankind’.
Cosmist ideas have had more influence than most realise.
In 2000, at the APEC Summit in Brunei, Putin announced that the “Noosphere” would form the basis of his policy agenda – an obscure term coined in 1922 by cosmist Vladimir Vernadsky, scientist Edouard LeRoy, and Catholic theologian Pierre Thielhard de Chardin.
The Noosphere hypothesis is that, as mankind continues to evolve on Earth, we will undergo a ‘state change’ transformation, marked by great upheaval, which would bring about the Noosphere – what might be described as a conscious Earth (from the Greek word nous, meaning intelligent). This is contrasted with prior iterations of the ‘geosphere’ (Earth without life), and the ‘biosphere’ (Earth with life).
Some questioned Putin’s judgement in 2017 when he installed Anton Vaino as his Chief of Staff – his primary accomplishment being the alleged creation of a “Nooscope” which would use sensors and data to measure our progress towards achievement of the Noosphere.
Western audiences reflexively project their own concepts of power into the Russian mindset, rendering many of these ideas invisible or ‘crazy’. But, the further Russian perspectives are understood, the more these ideas are at least internally consistent and also wholly irreconcilable with Western ideas of power.
Elon Musk’s belief that mankind must urgently evolve to become a multiplanetary species is well-aligned with cosmist ideas, and SpaceX’s Starlink network is perhaps the nearest physical manifestation of the Noosphere yet.
To the extent that Putin sees a cosmist agenda as a positive vision for the future, Musk has found himself well aligned with it. From his perspective, the West has only offered incrementalism; diversity, equity and inclusion; and bureaucracy as a countering vision.
High On His Own Supply
Multiple reports suggest that Musk has surrounded himself with like-minded peers who rarely question him or his actions. Text messages from the run-up to his purchase of the then Twitter in 2022 were uniformly fawning, with peers asking him to purchase the social media platform in the name of “free speech” and to save the world from the “woke mind virus”.
I learned from a friend that a group chat has been set up for ‘friends of Elon’ on Signal (a popular encrypted messaging platform), consisting of like-minded wealthy peers looking to protect him and advance his cause.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Musk is a regular user of various drugs, including ketamine, LSD, cocaine, ecstasy, and psychedelic mushrooms. While ketamine has been successfully used in supervised therapeutic settings, the potential for addiction and illegal abuse is high. The recent death of Friends actor Matthew Perry, now being charged as a crime, shows that there is a thriving market for the drug among those with means to pay for it off-label, which Musk certainly has. And, while we can’t know the extent of Musk’s drug use, and whether any of it is supervised, it is reasonable to assume that drug usage may be shaping his perceptions.
But, Musk’s primary drug of choice is his $44 billion playground, X, on which he has nearly 200 million followers who hang on his every word, meme, provocation, and (often sexist or racist) ‘jokes’.
While bloggers and engagement farmers use his proclamations as grist for their own click mills, there is a cult of young-ish men that Musk has attracted who cherish and amplify his utterances most.
These men – best described as a mix of ‘incels’ (involuntary celibates), video game addicts, crypto cultists, self-styled AI experts, would-be pick-up artists, and wannabe ‘alphas’ – mirror back to Musk whatever absurd and questionable thing he says, perhaps giving him the impression that everyone agrees with him. In the past two years, he has also attracted MAGA men, and even a few women, to his cult.
Recent reports in The New York Times suggest that Musk has received an increasing number of death threats, causing him to ramp up his personal security. This could also lead him towards an increasingly paranoid state of mind.
To the extent that situational awareness is necessary for any leader to manage either strategy or tactics, Musk appears to be increasingly impaired by his heavily-insulated information environment.
Like Henry Ford before him, he has tried to shape the world in ways that suit his increasingly fascistic worldview – while also becoming increasingly isolated from critique or honest feedback.
A Political Takeover?
Musk appears to have made a significant bet on the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election. If everything goes his way, Donald Trump will again be elected President, and Musk will apparently be appointed to serve in a ‘government efficiency commission’ that he and Trump have reportedly discussed. Musk has already referred to this position as the head of the “Department of Government Efficiency” or DOGE – a solipsistic reference to the Dogecoin cryptocurrency project he has nurtured.
In this role, he could be expected to recommend sweeping cuts and reforms to the federal government, which would be made possible by the ‘Schedule F’ provisions that allows for the selective firing of civil servants – a measure also included in the Heritage Foundation think tank’s controversial ‘Project 2025’ agenda.
Some have seen parallels in these proposals to Musk’s takeover of the then Twitter, when he fired roughly 80% of the company’s staff with little visible effect to observers. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy – another Musk ally – has similarly claimed that he would fire 75% of the federal workforce and has also expressed interest in proposed efficiency efforts in a second Trump term.
But this would just be the starting point.
By far, the most dangerous element of a potential Trump/Musk political ‘takeover’ is the role that could be played by Senator JD Vance of Ohio – Trump’s 39-year-old running mate and protégé of Musk ally, Peter Thiel. His gaining access to the presidency must be considered as a real possibility, given that Trump is elderly, unfit, and under multiple indictments.
Courting A Debt Ceiling Disaster
There are other concerning scenarios to contemplate – even if Donald Trump loses in November.
On 2 January 2025, America will once again hit the US debt ceiling, which will require Congress to pass a law increasing it (or, ideally, eliminating it altogether) before that time. If this doesn’t happen, it will once again trigger the grim prospect of a default on US debt. America last escaped a default last June, when Congress passed a last-minute bill to extend the debt ceiling until 2025, which was signed by Joe Biden.
If Trump is re-elected, it would seem that all bets are off. Why? Because the former President is now heavily influenced by Elon Musk – who is so obsessed with the prospect of US default that he has joked of his X purchase that “pretty soon, $44 billion won’t be worth that much anyway”.
In 2021, Moody’s estimated that a US default could lead to the loss of at least six million jobs and the destruction of $15 trillion in wealth, triggering a global financial meltdown that would greatly harm America’s dollar hegemony and would primarily help Putin, Musk, and speculators in gold and cryptocurrency.
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Is Texit Next?
In February, Musk announced plans to move Tesla’s headquarters from California to Texas. In September, X closed its San Francisco headquarters and relocated to Austin. SpaceX previously relocated from Hawthorne, California to Starbase, Texas. Musk has previously cited grievances with tax, governance, and policy regimes in California and Delaware as reasons for the moves.
Russian-backed networks have been promoting a Texas secessionist movement – known as ‘Texit’ – that may present a future risk.
The Wall Street Journal has reported that Musk backed a campaign to oust Austin’s Democratic District Attorney José Garza, which was mounted by a group funded by Musk and his allies using the alias ‘Save Austin’. It printed fliers that accused Garza of “filling Austin’s streets with paedophiles and killers” and called him a “Soros-backed District Attorney”. Garza and his Democratic primary opponent, Jeremy Sylestine, condemned the antisemitic nature of the fliers.
Joe Lonsdale, a Musk ally and co-founder of data intelligence firm Palantir with Peter Thiel, donated $25,000 to Sylestine’s campaign. Lonsdale also created Musk’s ‘America PAC’ – a group that has pledged to help Trump get elected by turning out voters.
Joe Rogan, a popular podcaster and a friend of Lonsdale’s who features a range of guests in Thiel’s network, has also established Austin as his home base.
Lonsdale has also been involved in launching the University of Austin, which offers a heterodox, right-leaning curriculum. In addition, he leads 8VC, a venture capital firm which was listed as an investor in X in a recently-disclosed list of shareholders in the firm.
8VC employs the children of two sanctioned Russian oligarchs, Denis Aven and Jack Moshkovich – Aven is the son of Petr Aven of Russia’s AlfaBank; Moshkovich is the son of Vadim Moshkovich, a founder of the agriculture conglomerate Rusagro. Both are considered to be part of Putin’s trusted circle.
The Texit effort – the latest in a long history of Texas secessionist efforts – arose in 2016 in the wake of Brexit.
It has recently been led by Daniel Miller of the Texas National Movement, who was featured at last year’s Independent National Convention – an event held in Austin and organised by people connected to Robert F Kennedy Jr’s ballot access operation.
That same group has long had ties with Sheriff Richard Mack and his group, the Constitutional Sheriffs and Peace Officers Association, an anti-government secessionist movement.
Earlier this year, Texas’ Republican Governor Greg Abbott challenged the Biden administration by directing state resources to the Mexican border – in direct conflict with federal control over immigration policy. Adding to that challenge, Abbott also signed a bill making it a state crime for immigrants to cross into Texas, punishable by jail time, deportation by the state, or both.
Texas’ Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton – who survived a 2023 impeachment effort over corruption charges – also has ties to Musk’s network.
Last November, Musk filed a lawsuit against media watchdog group Media Matters, which accused X of allowing antisemitic posts next to advertising. Paxton said his office would investigate the “radical anti-free speech organisation” on charges of fraud. Media Matters won a temporary injunction against Paxton in April this year. His office filed an appeal but, as of July 2024, oral arguments in the case have yet to be scheduled.
While it may be too early to tell what Musk’s moves in Texas could ultimately lead to, careful observation is warranted – especially given Russia’s implicit backing of Texit and other schemes to destabilise the United States.
A Time of Reckoning
For Elon Musk, the coming months look set to be decisive. Even if the US Presidential Election results in the re-election of Donald Trump, the X owner will face several simultaneous challenges.
Banks have written-down the loans used to purchase the social media platform and could potentially push for a sale to a new owner. Several new laws regulating social media are set to take effect in October and January (in multiple US states, the EU, in Vietnam, and other countries) that could also subject X to fines and potential bans. Outwardly, the company appears to be taking no action to become compliant.
If Musk and his allies are able to trigger a US debt default – a big if – he could potentially find a way to hang on to power at Tesla, X, and SpaceX in the ensuing chaos. And a Texit manoeuvre – or even the threat of it – could add even more noise and uncertainty.
While it’s impossible to know how events might unfold, I am probably on safe ground to quote Aiden Gillen’s character, Petyr Baelish, from Game of Thrones: “Chaos isn’t a pit. Chaos is a ladder.”
It seems we are in for several heaping portions.
David Troy is an investigative journalist and disinformation researcher