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As the United Kingdom recovers from the recent race riots and the revelations that it was sparked by far-right politics and misinformation spread by populist figures such as Tommy Robinson and Nigel Farage, the six root causes of civil unrest are worth considering.
While the riots exposed some underlying tension in polarised British society, we can also see that this was a disproportionate amount of terror from a hooligan mob of hundreds manipulated by an even smaller group of professional agitators.
Far larger crowds of counter-protestors outnumbered rioters. Multicultural communities rallied around to protect minority groups, showing the true Blitz spirit of solidarity in the face of fascism and ending the riots as quickly as they started, on August 5.
Over 1,000 people have been arrested and nearly 600 charged in connection with the riots that erupted across the UK following a stabbing incident in Southport on July 29, with the longest sentence to date being six years.
Identity Politics and Ethnic Tensions
Ethnic tensions and cultural differences have always been exploited by political polarisation, which is now exacerbated by floods of online misinformation.
Xenophobia has long been a driver of conflict across borders. Now, as our societies have become more diverse, identity politics of scapegoating and demonising leads to domestic social fragmentation and civil conflict.
This dynamic is deliberately fuelled by populists exploiting perceived and manufactured grievances to mobilise support.
In the United States, political polarisation has driven a renaissance in identity-based politics along racial and ideological lines.
This has contributed to events like the Charlottesville rally in 2017, which highlighted the resurgence of white nationalist groups. In India, rising tensions have led to violent clashes and protests, such as in Delhi in 2020.
In extreme cases, ethnic conflicts escalate into civil war and genocide in Rwanda, Myanmar, and Palestine.
Misinformation and disinformation drive this. False narratives and conspiracy theories stoke fears and deepen divisions. Social media platforms and their owners have taken little responsibility for the spreading of misinformation and disinformation.
Economic Inequality
Economic inequality is a significant driver of civil unrest and is often the factor underlying all the other triggers.
As the gap between the rich and the poor widens, frustration and discontent among disadvantaged populations grow, often leading to protests and riots.
Historical examples vividly illustrate this trend. Rising inequality and currency debasement has been indicated as one of the reasons for the collapse of the Western Roman Empire.
The Arab Spring was significantly influenced by high unemployment rates, especially among young people, and widespread poverty despite the elites’ wealth. Similarly, the Occupy Wall Street movement in 2011 highlighted issues of economic inequality and the influence of corporate money in politics.
Economic disparities create a sense of injustice and marginalisation among lower-income groups, who feel excluded from the benefits of economic growth. This perception of inequality leads to collective action it.
However, populists often use these grievances to manipulate people. While sometimes we see the disadvantaged in unrest against the rich—think smashing Starbucks—more often, thanks to scapegoating, we see two disadvantaged groups—typically the working class and immigrants—pitted against each other.
Political Oppression and Corruption
Political repression and corruption catalyse civil unrest. When governments fail to represent their citizens or engage in corrupt or perceived corrupt practices, public trust erodes, leading to protests.
The 2019 protests in Hong Kong were sparked by a controversial extradition bill but were rooted in broader political freedom and autonomy issues.
In Belarus, the 2020 protests erupted following contested presidential elections widely regarded as fraudulent. The 6 January Insurrection in the United States was driven by a perception of corruption – following a deliberate campaign to undermine faith in democratic results.
When political oppression and corruption diminish the legitimacy of government institutions, citizens are prompted to demand transparency, accountability, and democratic reforms. These demands often manifest in large-scale protests and, occasionally, violent confrontations.
Social Justice Movements
Movements advocating for racial and social justice often have most members with peaceful aims, yet can still be significant focus points of civil unrest.
These movements seek to address systemic discrimination, police brutality, and broader social inequalities and have a long and proud history.
The Chartists were a working-class rights movement active in the UK from 1838 to 1857. They primarily relied on constitutional means to achieve reforms, but as the Newport Rising shows, some branches trained, armed and sought to instigate a general uprising.
The Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement was formed in 2013 following George Zimmerman’s acquittal for the murder of Trayvon Martin.
The killing of George Floyd, captured on video in 2020, sparked global protests against police brutality and systemic racism and reignited calls for societal reform in Justice, Education, Healthcare and Employment.
Racial and social justice movements seek to rectify long-standing inequities and injustices, often gaining momentum through high-profile incidents of violence or discrimination. Widespread protests usually start peacefully but can sometimes turn violent, especially if the state seems to repress rather than reform.
Globalisation and Cultural Changes
Globalisation and rapid cultural changes are disrupting traditional societies and economies.
Reactions to economic displacement, cultural homogenisation, and nationalists’ perceived loss of identity can lead to civil unrest. Anti-globalisation protests, such as those during the World Trade Organisation (WTO) meeting in Seattle in 1999, highlighted opposition to free trade agreements and corporate Globalisation. Multinational corporations, with brass-plate tax efficiency, were seen as beyond the power of nation-states.
Billions in tax being unavailable for the state to spend on public services can be seen as a breakdown in the social contract.
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The Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vests) movement in France began in 2018 as a reaction to fuel taxes. It has evolved to address broader economic and social issues often linked to globalisation and government policies.
Globalisation can lead to economic displacement, cultural homogenisation, and perceived threats to national identity.
These disruptions can fuel discontent and lead to civil disturbances as socially conservative groups resist changes they see as harmful to their way of life.
The trend towards globalisation is likely to continue but with increasing resistance from those who feel left behind by rapid economic and cultural changes. Cultural tensions are exploited by demagogues, nationalists, and politicians who seek to gain money, power, and influence by scapegoating.
Climate Change and Environmental Factors
Climate change is the fastest-growing cause of civil disturbances and the most inevitable cause of future disturbances. Environmental degradation, resource scarcity, and extreme weather exacerbate all the other causes of unrest.
Extinction Rebellion, Just Stop Oil, Anarcho-Environmentalists, and many other groups driven by the climate crisis are organising widespread protests in cities worldwide.
While these are predominantly peaceful—seeking to disrupt and raise awareness rather than spark violence—this may change as the impacts of climate change directly impact populations.
In Syria, prolonged droughts from 2006 to 2010, linked to climate change, contributed to rural-to-urban migration, economic hardship, and eventually the Syrian civil war.
Climate change-related crop failures drove up global food prices in 2007-2008, leading to riots in several countries, including Haiti, Egypt and Bangladesh. Desertification caused by changing rainfall patterns has led to violent clashes over diminishing resources in Mali, Niger and Chad.
Climate change impacts livelihoods, especially in vulnerable regions, by causing resource shortages, displacing populations, and increasing competition for dwindling resources. These conditions can create a fertile ground for civil disturbances as affected populations demand action and relief.
Future Prospects
These six driving factors of unrest do not exist in isolation but interact and act as force multipliers for each other.
Climate change drives economic inequality. Globalisation supports corruption. Political oppression inspires social justice movements.
All these factors are ripe to be manipulated through identity politics. If you have yet to directly experience severe civil unrest, you probably will in the next decade.