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The Conservative Party‘s membership appears to have tumbled over the past two years, newly-released figures suggest.
The party’s income from memberships has dropped from £1.97 million in 2022 to £1.5 million last year, according to the party’s accounts, which were published by the Electoral Commission on Thursday.
The 25% decrease – suggesting a collapse of up to a quarter since the last leadership election – has prompted speculation about a potential record-low in the party’s membership base.
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While the Conservative Party does not publicly disclose its membership figures, the accounts provide insight into the scale of the party’s support. Previous estimates had suggested a membership of around 172,000 in 2022, with nearly 142,000 members participating in that summer’s leadership contest between Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, in which Truss romped to victory and became Prime Minister.
A 25% drop in membership subs between the summer 2022 leadership election and the latest data would suggest a current membership of 130,000 (see note 1 below for methodology).
However, it may be even lower. Standard membership for the party costs £39 annually, with reduced rates available for specific groups such as Armed Forces personnel (£25) and those under 26 years old (£10).
Gawain Towler, a spokesperson for Reform UK, wrote on X: “If the Tories have £1.5m in membership fees, and it’s £39 a pop (with discounts) then their membership must be near or below 50k.”
He added that his party now has 75,000 members, potentially surpassing the Conservatives. However, Reform UK does not have official members – instead it is a private company with ‘supporters’, and with leader Nigel Farage being the major shareholder. The party says this will change soon and it will adopt a more “normal” political party structure.
But Finn Baker, a researcher for the Institute for Government, noted: “The £1.5m in the central party accounts will refer to CCHQ’s share of the membership fees, but these are split with individual associations…which report their accounts separately.” In other words, the £1.5m will not encompass all the party’s membership income, some of which goes directly to local Conservative associations, making accurate membership estimates difficult.
Conservative members are typically to the right of the party’s MPs. A smaller rump of hardcore members may have a different political leaning to a larger base.
The alternative is that the party’s membership is higher, but that the vast majority pay a far-reduced fee than advertised. The party may also include as members those whose payments have recently ceased.
This rump membership will choose from two candidates (whittled down by MPs) to become the next official leader of the opposition.
Six candidates are running for the leadership: right-wingers Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick, as well as moderate Mel Stride. Previously liberal Tom Tugendhat appears to be positioning himself further to the right, while Priti Patel appears to have moderated her platform, for example rejecting leaving the European Convention on Human Rights.
The final two chosen by MPs will be put forward to the Conservative membership in October, with the result announced on 2 November.
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The Conservatives have been contacted for comment but are yet to respond. The party are unlikely to confirm membership numbers until after the leadership election
As one Byline Times reader put it on the platform Threads: “We’ll learn in a couple of months – they can’t hide their membership numbers [for long].”
Labour has also experienced a decline in membership, with numbers reportedly falling below 400,000 for the first time since 2015. Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership saw a major spike in membership, but it has been falling since a 2017 peak of 564,000 members.
Green Party membership remained roughly stable in 2023, while SNP membership plummeted and the Lib Dems also lost 11,000 members in 2023 (the party says it has picked up members in the first half of this year).
Update 3pm August 23rd: This piece has been updated to note that it is difficult to assess membership numbers from the national party membership income figures, as local associations receive much of the local income from dues, which are reported separately to HQ.
Note 1: This figure is an approximation based on party membership income dropping from £2m in 2022 to £1.5m in 2023, a 25% decrease. Reported membership numbers in 2022 were 172,000. A drop of 25% in membership income on this figure would suggest a December 2023 membership around 129,000. However, this is a rough estimate as membership prices may have changed in that time, and the proportion of members paying varying subs rates may also have changed in that time.
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