‘Labour Won the Local Elections but it has a Problem – it Can’t Engage With UK Muslims’
Labour’s triumph was almost entirely due to a collapse in Conservative support. To succeed in the General Election it must directly engage with a new generation of British Muslim voters
Keir Starmer, pictured above at the Labour Conference in 2023, got himself in a difficult position when he said "Israel has the right" to withhold power and water from Palestinian civilians. Photo: GaryRobertsphotography / Alamy
The results were mixed for Labour in the UK’s local elections on Thursday.
Yes, the opposition party gained more than 180 council seats and eight councils. It triumphed in almost all mayoral elections, including an iconic but narrow victory in the West Midlands. It captured the Parliamentary seat of Blackpool South in a by-election with a 26.3% swing, the third-largest since 1945.
But there were also setbacks. Labour lost control of Oldham council. The Deputy Leader of the council lost his safe Labour seat to an independent, and former Labour voters helped the Greens break through in Bristol. The outcome in the West Midlands was in doubt – ultimately, the margin was only 1,508 votes – because of the 11.7% share for independent candidate Akhmed Yakoob.
Before the final drama in Birmingham, a Labour official complained, “It’s the Middle East, not West Midlands, that will have won [Conservative incumbent] Andy Street the mayoralty. Once again Hamas are the real villains.”
The Labour Party is in an “uncomfortable position on Gaza and it is not just Muslim voters”, one expert said. Photo: Jeff Gilbert / Alamy
The eventual outcome, added to other triumphs such as Mayor Sadiq Khan’s in London, removed the “Gaza factor” from the headlines. But it is still present: for beyond these elections and the national vote later this year, Labour’s leadership has a problem: an issue of how they engage with the UK’s Muslims.
On Saturday, Labour leader Keir Starmer addressed those who have voted for the party in the past but felt they could not do so this time: “I’ve heard you and I’ve listened. I hope to gain your respect and trust again in the future.”
Left unspoken was the fact that Labour’s triumph was almost entirely because of a collapse in Conservative support – the 34% share for Starmer’s party was almost the same as in 2022, 2023, and 2024.
Analysing the vote in 930 wards, Professor Will Jennings, of the University of Southampton summarised, “Labour is in an uncomfortable position on Gaza. And it is not just Muslim voters.”
Professor Chris Painter explores the likely determinants of the next general election outcome – which polls consistently predict Labour will win
Professor Chris Painter
In the 20 constituencies in the UK with a Muslim electorate over 30% who elected a Labour MP in 2019, the opposition party’s share dropped 18%.
In a General Election, independents might not take seats from Labour. However, they could dent the party where there is more than one contender for First Past the Post. In the long run, the effect could be greater if the Liberal Democrats or Greens build their appeal or if there is a rejuvenated One Nation form of Conservatism.
Starmer’s LBC interview on October 11, in which he said “Israel has the right” to withhold power and water from Palestinian civilians, laid the foundations for this electoral desertion. The justification of collective punishment carried even greater weight because Starmer – a former Director of Public Prosecutions – knows the codes of international law.
The Conservative party’s strategy of trying to win the general election through a mixture of ‘culture wars and the trans debate’ is only worsening their defeats to Labour
Adam Bienkov
Within 24 hours, Labour denied that Starmer intended to support an Israeli cutting of supplies, saying that he was just backing Israel’s right to defend itself. But the damage was done: almost seven months later, Independents and Greens played the interview as part of their election tactics on social media.
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