New Strategic Realities: A Rising India and Declining Britain

Chris Ogden – a consultant on the recent BBC documentary series examining the record of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi – explores why the West appears to be silent on the authoritarianism unfolding in the world’s largest democracy

A recent two-part documentary by the BBC – for which I was the series consultant – revealed a British government report that deemed India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, to be “directly” responsible for the violence perpetrated during deadly sectarian riots in 2002. It also argued that such anti-Muslim proclivities have accelerated since he came to power in 2014. 

In response, the Indian Government banned the documentary under emergency powers, declaring it “a propaganda piece, designed to push a particular discredited narrative… and a continuing colonial mindset”.

Despite this controversy, the personal popularity of Modi has remained undiminished. Indeed, this month, Modi was ranked as the most popular global leader, with a net approval rating of 60% for his decisive, assertive and frequently bombastic ruling style. It has also come via vast infrastructure investment into water, power and roads, which has pulled tens of millions of people out of poverty. As a result, India’s GDP per capita rose from $5,187 in 2014 to $7,242 in 2021. 

There is a sense among the public that Modi’s own humble beginnings as a tea seller, and his meteoric rise, is creating a ‘New India’ – an inspiring narrative for a country that has a fifth of all of the world’s 10 to 24-year-olds.  

A tech-savvy Modi is supported by big business and big tech, which is keen to access India’s huge markets. With the world’s third-largest GDP of $10.19 trillion, and an annual GDP growth rate that is now outstripping China, the country is attracting record levels of foreign direct investment.  

This convergence is creating synergies between a resource-hungry India and the global economy. Converting this economic strength, India has the world’s third-highest military budget of $76.16 billion, much of it spent on weapons from France, Russia, the United States and Israel, which is augmenting New Delhi’s global resurrection as a great power.

Modi is also fulfilling key promises of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that are crucial to his Hindu nationalist voter base. These include advancing the building of a Hindu temple at the disputed religious site of Ayodhya and abrogating the special status of Kashmir in 2019 to bring it more firmly under the control of the Indian Government. As the self-proclaimed protector of Hindus from Muslim aggression, Modi’s National Register of Citizens and the Citizenship Amendment Act of 2019 both deny Muslims the same rights as the Hindu majority. Such legislation, among many others, has been described as “Modi’s anti-Muslim jihad” that appears to be changing India from an inclusive democracy into a majoritarian theocracy.  

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India’s Authoritarian Descent

Since 2014, India has been experiencing a deep-seated auth