Putin’s Nuclear Brinkmanship in Ukraine

As the UN nuclear watchdog mission visits the Russian-occupied Ukrainian nuclear power plant, Byline Times speaks to locals and experts on the ground

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky this week called the situation around the largest nuclear power plant in Europe – Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP) – “highly threatening”.

Since 6 March, the ZNPP has been occupied by the Russian military but operated by Ukrainian personnel.

With a total capacity of 6,000 megawatts, the station generates about 40 billion kWh of electricity annually – one-fifth of the total annual electricity production in Ukraine.

In winter, four out of six units of the ZNPP operate at full capacity, with two remaining units undergoing maintenance.

In 2022, due to the gas shortage in Ukraine, all six units of the plant produced electricity. Currently, the need for electricity in Ukraine has diminished due to the closure of many factories and only two units are in operation.

All of the experts Byline Times spoke to agreed that the main risk at the ZNPP is the dry storage of spent radioactive fuel.

In addition to six working power units, the ZNPP operates one dry storage facility for spent nuclear fuel, which is kept in 380 ventilated concrete containers in a designated fenced area. To avoid a disaster, the cooling system of the dry storage must function at all times, with an uninterrupted supply of electricity. 

The working power units, if cut off from electricity, can also present a grave risk. They need a constant power supply  –  either internal or external  –  to ensure the operation of the cooling, control and other auxiliary systems. Without proper ventilation, the reactor may overheat, which would lead to a radiation leak. 

If all power lines are cut off, the diesel generator could be used to supply electricity to the cooling systems. In the case that the generator runs out of diesel, the cooling system would stop and this would lead to an uncontrolled heat build-up, a meltdown, and a fire that could release and spread radiation from the containment structure into the environment.

Additional risk factors are: the malfunctioning of the fire safety, ventilation and monitoring systems; and personnel’s ability to perform their tasks safely. Intentional damage to the automatic shutdown system could lead to a catastrophe. 

The impact of this would not be as strong as the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, considered the worst such event in the history of nuclear power generation.

As stated by the State Inspection of Nuclear Regulation of Ukraine, a catastrophe at the ZNPP would be comparable to the second most severe nuclear accident at Fukushima, which was caused by an earthquake in Japan in 2011.

The wind would carry a radioactive cloud to Europe, Russia and Belarus, and could lead to the radioactive contamination of large areas of land and pollution of the Dnipro river and the Black Sea – which, in turn, would lead to a humanitarian and environmental crisis.

Some of the illnesses resulting from the leak of radiation could be acute radiation poisoning, cancers and thyroid disorders developing later in life.