NHS Consultant David Oliver dissects some of the dangerous and dismissive arguments pushed by lockdown sceptics and COVID-denialists
The older you are, the poorer you are and the more long term medical conditions you have, the more likely you are to be admitted to hospital or to die, if those conditions progress or if you get any new acute illness, including COVID-19.
Lately, some talking heads and factions in news and social media have been talking as if this is a revelation, an investigative scoop when it is just business as usual for NHS services whose biggest workload lies in helping people like this.
Let’s dissect the ways some people are using this for propaganda.
‘COVID-19 Only Kills the Old and the Sick, After All’
The insinuation behind this claim is pretty disturbing. As COVID-19 doesn’t kill or harm many ‘normal’ people (i.e. younger, fitter and less socioeconomically deprived), it shouldn’t concern the rest of us. By extension, public health protection measures from behavioural restrictions and changes, through to vaccines or lockdowns, aren’t worth adopting. This is a covert manifesto for age discrimination and discrimination against the old, sick and disabled.
Here are two recent variations on the theme.
The Daily Mail on 21 November carried a piece entitled ‘What they Don’t tell you about Covid’. It has since been widely criticised for a very selective presentation of data and careful reframing of graphs to support its agenda. The author, Ross Clark, wrote:
“So who is Covid killing? To put it simply, the victims are overwhelmingly the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions … 53% of deaths recorded by NHS England up to November were of people aged over 80” with “only 0.7% in people under 40… Only 42 of them with a pre-existing condition… Crucially, 95.6% of those who died of Coronavirus had at least one pre-existing condition.”
Similar data were tweeted out enthusiastically by talkRADIO’s host Julia Hartley-Brewer on the same day, adding in that of those who had died “92% were over 60” and “the total number under 60 with no underlying health problems” was 339.
The numbers are sourced from official ONS and NHS England data. But two main questions arise. Why are some commentators so keen to cite them? And do they offer any constructive help in responding to the COVID-19 infections in populations and in people requiring health care, often in crisis?
The answer to the first is clearly public fatigue over the serious impacts of lockdown and other behavioural restrictions, not least collateral damage for health, employment and the economy, a loss of trust in government and its agencies and a concern that people with non-COVID-19 health needs, like cancer, are being marginalised or harmed.
All of this is understandable. None of it justifies casually writing off people over 60 with some long-term medical conditions as ready for the COVID-19 knacker’s yard and dismissing their rights or their human dignity. And none of the arguments stand up to scrutiny.
Survival of The Fittest is Fine – Until You or Your Loved Ones Aren’t the Fittest
A large proportion of the business of modern healthcare is the support of people with two or more long-term medical conditions. Over 65, at least three conditions are the norm. Socio-economically deprived populations also suffer health inequalities and the onset is up to a decade earlier.
Nearly 12 million people in the UK are over 65 and 3 million over 80. That’s a lot of people to casually dismiss.
Care homes and hospital wards, district nurses, home care teams and GPs surgeries expend a major proportion of their time, beds and budgets supporting these people because healthcare is based on need and their needs are generally greater. Even on our scarce Intensive Care Unit beds, you won’t find too many fit young people with no underlying health problems.
People in these categories are more likely to die than fitter or younger or individuals. This really isn’t news to anyone who understands healthcare and public health. ‘Long term conditions’, especially ones linked to higher death rates from or with COVID-19, include dementia (1 in 13 people over 65), diabetes (around 1 in 16 adults) high blood pressure (about 1 in 4), obesity (1 in 4), as well as cancers and chronic heart and lung disease which also affect a high percentage of the population.
Nearly 12 million people in the UK are over 65 and 3 million are over 80. That’s a lot of people to casually dismiss. These include our own parents, uncles, aunts, grandparents, our current or future selves. These are citizens who have contributed to society, families, workplaces and the economy. They are as entitled to protection and care as the rest of us.
It’s About People Who Survive COVID-19, Not Just Those Who Die
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