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Byline Times‘ regular update on all the news about Britain’s pending exit from the EU
Not pulling any punches
Britain’s highest ranking civil servant, Sir Mark Sedwill, has issued a letter to ministers outlining a ‘doomsday’ scenario of how the country would be affected in the event of a No Deal Brexit
- Sedwill’s bombshell letter says No Deal will hamper police and security services and lead to the return of direct rule in Northern Ireland.
- There would be a 10% spike in food prices and the collapse of some businesses trading directly with the EU
- The government would come under pressure to bail out companies on the brink
- A recession will hit the UK and the pound’s depreciation will be more harmful than it was in 2008
- The UK’s legal and judicial system would come under enormous pressure.
UK now a laughing stock
- Goldman Sachs said the chaotic approach to Brexit since 2016 has cost the UK economy £600m per week, roughly 2.5% of its GDP.
- The UK CEO of German manufacturing group Siemens urged UK politicians to agree on a customs union and said ‘the world used to consider the UK a beacon of stability, now it sees us as a laughing stock’
- BMW is closing its Mini plant in Britain for four weeks as previously announced, and Peugeot is closing its Vauxhall factory for two weeks. These previously agreed moves are to helps these firms cope with any Brexit disruption
- Easyjet said there was weakening demand for holidays as it enters its busy summer period and it pointed to Brexit uncertainty as a likely cause
The cracks in Parliament exposed
- Direct action group Extinction Rebellion stripped off during the Brexit debate in the House of Commons to promote their campaign to highlight the urgency needed to tackle climate change
- Factories are rushing to stockpile goods in anticipation of Brexit. This has led to the Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) rising for 32 months in a row, and it rose again in March
High Noon showdown in Downing Street
- Theresa May is to hold a 5 hour cabinet meeing this morning. Two meetings: the first will be a political cabinet discussing strategy and party matters without officials. the second will be a conventional cabinet business meeting
- The Guardian reported there is a desperate mood in No10 today with talk of the Prime Minister calling a snap General Election. Last weekend’s polls, though, show Labour jumping ahead of the Conservatives for the first time in a while.
- Theresa May has been warned that if the she pursues a soft Brexit is could shatter the Tory Party. She was handed a letter with 170 MPs signatures urgng her to reject the prospect of asking the EU for a longer delay to the Brexit process. The MPs urged her to not do this or fight the EU elections, indicating that they were leaning towards a No Deal Brexit option
- The DUP has said in a BBC interview they will not vote for Theresa May’s deal a thousand times over and said it places the integrity of the Union over Brexit
- RTE News reported that the EU is actively preparing for No Deal and expect that the UK pays more than 10bn Euros to it. This money would be used to guarantee grant funding the university research sector among other matters
- It was revealed that one government department alone had spent £5.5m in a single month on management consultants to help with Brexit policy
- MPs debated four motions that summed up the alternative to Theresa May’s deal during the day. In the evening MPs voted against them all. The two motions with the highest number of votes were the Customs Union which lost by 3 votes and polled 273 in favour. Then the Second Referendum which polled 280 votes and was beaten by 12 votes
- Conservative Party’s Nick Boles, who proposed the Common Market 2.0 option during the indicative vote debate – told the House of Commons that he was resigning the Conservative Party whip and that ‘my party refuses to compromise’
- MPs in the chamber debating the indicative votes came in for stick from the press, with Politics.co.uk‘s Ian Dunt describing the factions favouring each indicative vote motion as experts in forming a circular firing squad
- The government’s chief whip, Julian Smith, was critical of Theresa May’s post 2017 General Election strategy with regard to Brexit in a BBC documentary on the same theme
- Theresa May was said to be pondering bringing her Withdrawal Agreement one more time. Hardliners in her own party were also preparing to defeat it once more
Jobs at Risk
Banks keep options open and hold fire on Brexit exodusThe City of London’s biggest international banks have moved fewer than 1,500 jobs from the UK in the run-up to Brexit, after slashing their estimates of the staff they need onshore in the EU after Britain leaves the bloc. Financial Times research shows top lenders are preserving as much optionality as possible by moving fewer people from the UK to the 27 other EU countries as they strive to avoid costly actions while grappling with deepening political uncertainty. London’s top 15 international banks have collectively cut fewer than 3,500 jobs in the UK capital since the Brexit vote in June 2016, amounting to about 5 per cent of their City headcounts. Fewer than 1,500 of those moves were linked to Brexit, interviews with senior bank executives have revealed.1st Apr 2019 – Financial Times
Economic Impact
Brexit costs UK £600m per week, says Goldman study
Brexit has cost the UK around £600m every week since the 2016 referendum, according to a report by Goldman Sachs that highlights the economic impact of the uncertainty surrounding Britain’s exit from the EU. The investment bank said that Brexit has cost Britain about 2.4 per cent of gross domestic product, compared with a hypothetical `Doppelgänger` economy that did not withstand a Brexit shock. Its estimates suggest that the UK economy has underperformed other advanced economies since mid-2016 as a result.1st Apr 2019 – Financial Times
Sir Mark’s 14-page letter warns: a) No Deal would result in a 10 per cent spike in food prices and the collapse of some businesses that trade with the EU; b) The Government would come under pressure to bail out companies on the brink; c) It would hamper the ability of the police and security services to keep people safe; d) It would lead to the reintroduction of direct rule in Northern Ireland for the first time since 2007; e) A recession will hit the UK and the pound’s depreciation will be ‘more harmful’ than in 2008; f) Our legal authorities and judicial system would be put under ‘enormous pressure’.2nd Apr 2019 – Daily Mail