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Keir Starmer, only weeks in office as Prime Minister, hosted nearly 50 European leaders in July at the European Political Community (EPC) summit at Blenheim Palace.
The agenda had been set by his predecessor, Rishi Sunak, but Starmer stamped the event as his own. He signalled a decisive shift of UK policy towards Europe, seated President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine on his right hand, and impressed European leaders with his pledge that the UK would never leave the European Convention on Human Rights.
The next EPC summit on 7 November will be a far cry from that. It will be hosted by Hungary’s President Viktor Orbán who favours Vladimir Putin over Zelensky and treats human rights and the rule of law with contempt. He has also publicly endorsed Donald Trump’s candidacy for the US Presidency.
The US goes to the polls on 5 November and the votes will still be being counted as European leaders meet in Budapest. Whether Kamala Harris or Trump has won might or might not be clear by then, but news of the emerging outcome could have seismic effects on proceedings at the summit.
Zelensky might choose to stay in Kiev and if he does come he won’t get a hero’s welcome from Orbán.
The EPC’s summit will be hosted by Hungary’s populist President because he is taking his turn as six-month President of the EU Council – a role the EU would have denied him if it could.
As soon as Orbán assumed office in July he outraged EU leaders by visiting Russia the US and China on a “peace mission” to settle the Ukraine war. He was rebuked for presenting his visits as official exercises in EU diplomacy, rather than the personal propaganda stunts they were.
Trump has spoken warmly about Orbán, and Orbán was rumoured to want to invite Trump to the EPC summit if the former President looked to be winning the US election.
That would be a bridge too far for most European leaders, but the chances of it happening are close to zero. While even online participation by Trump is unlikely, some governments might boycott the EPC summit if Orbán pushes them too far.
But a boycott would leave Orbán centre-stage unless there was a general walkout. Hungary’s far-right President is not a completely free agent when it comes to stage-managing the EPC, despite being host of the event.
Thanks to British diplomacy the EPC held at Blenheim saw the introduction of a new system for planning future summits. The country due to host the next one co-organises it with the last host country and the next two host countries. This system is based on the practice of the G20 and the EU, and has been advocated by this writer since the first summit.
And so a “quartet” of countries have been involved in planning the Budapest summit, made up of past host the UK, plus future hosts Albania and Denmark, in addition to Hungary, which is undeniably in the driving seat. Like the UK, Albania and Denmark are strong supporters of Ukraine against Russian aggression.
The UK and Denmark have recently led a diplomatic offensive to persuade President Joe Biden to allow Ukraine to use NATO-donated weapons for deep strikes into Russia to destroy bases used to launch attacks on its infrastructure and civilian population.
The weapons at the heart of this debate are UK/French Storm Shadow cruise missiles, and